Israeli Spy’s Warning: Tamir Pardo, a former director of Mossad, warned Israelis that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s “extremist” government threatens to destroy the strategic relationship with the United States. In a column on the website of Israel’s Keshet 12 TV channel, Pardo writes, “The great risk for the State of Israel is that, for the first time, Israel may run into a head-on collision with a supreme American national security interest. This irresponsible conduct of the Israeli government and its leader could lead to an existential threat to the Jewish state and also to the Jews of the Diaspora.” Pardo, who has been a strong critic of Netanyahu after he ran the Mossad from 2011 to 2016, says there are clear signs of this looming strategic divorce, and Israelis should take them to heart. “Woe to us if, one morning, the Pentagon and the State Department came out with a statement to Congress and the White House in which it was said that Israel ceased to be an asset to the United States and became a strategic burden!”
Duty to Warn: CIA veteran Glenn Corn had a lot of insights from his 34-year intelligence career that he shared in his conversation with Jeff Stein on the SpyTalk Podcast. Corn had made some waves in a piece he wrote for The Cipher Brief that called out U.S. intelligence for a failure to warn Americans in Israel before the October 7 attack by Hamas. Days before the attack, the U.S. intelligence community reportedly produced two assessments, based in part on Israeli intelligence, warning of an increased risk for conflict. “Is it possible that somewhere in the U.S. government, the ball was dropped?” Corn asked.
The U.S. Embassy in Jerusalem issued a warning to U.S. citizens in July about the security situation in Israel and Gaza, citing the threat posed by Hamas, he noted. “My question was, why wasn’t there an update to that, especially when we had a major peace festival going on and Jewish High Holidays?” Corn added. Was there a discussion about a public warning? So paramount is the intelligence community’s duty to warn that it’s covered in a written policy, Corn said. More than 30 Americans were among the 1,200 killed in the attack; six U.S. citizens remain unaccounted for, according to the State Department. Listen to Jeff’s conversation with Glenn Corn here or wherever you get your podcasts.
Suleimani’s Ghost: It’s been four years since a U.S. drone strike killed Major General Qassim Suleimani, the powerful Iranian commander, but a spate of violence across the Middle East this week underscored the impact he had on the region. Much of the turmoil in the Middle East is the bitter fruit of Suleimani’s vision for spreading Iranian influence throughout the region, notes The Soufan Center. Suleimani headed the Quds Force, an arm of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Corps, which co-ordinated the regional “Axis of Resistance” that includes Hezbollah, Hamas, Palestine Islamic Jihad, Houthi rebels in Yemen, and mostly Shia militia groups in Iraq and Syria. The Islamic State chose to mark the anniversary by attacking Iran, its Shiite enemy, claiming responsibility for Wednesday’s twin suicide bombing that killed 84 people in Kerman, Iran, during a memorial procession honoring Suleimani. In Lebanon, meanwhile, Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah said the organization will respond to the assassination Tuesday of deputy Hamas leader Saleh al-Arouri, who was killed in an alleged Israeli drone strike in a Beirut suburb. In another kinetic outburst, a U.S. drone strike in Baghdad Thursday killed the leader of Harakat al Nujaba, an Iraqi militia group aligned with Iran whom the U.S. military blames for recent attacks on Americans.
Taiwan Pressure: As elections loom in Taiwan, China has been pressuring the island nation with so-called “gray zone” tactics that fall somewhere between peace and outright war. Chinese jets and drones, for example, have been regularly flouting the unwritten rule against crossing the median line that divides the 110-mile Taiwan Strait. There’s also been a surge in sightings of balloons from China wafting over Taiwan. Other gray zone tactics include military exercises, missile drills, economic coercion, and cyber (or disinformation) warfare targeting Taipei. “China conducts these types of gray zone operations for multiple interrelated reasons,” writes Jacob Stokes of the Center for a New American Security, a Washington, D.C. think tank. First is China’s view of Taiwan as a breakaway province that will eventually come under Beijing’s control. Another is to pressure Taiwanese voters who head to the polls on January 13 to elect a new president. Holding a slim lead in the polls is Vice President Lai Ching-te, also known as William Lai, whose vow to continue the policies of outgoing President Tsai Ing-wen, a staunch defender of Taiwan’s self-defined status as an independent nation, has earned him China’s enmity. Gray zone tactics are also designed to degrade Taiwan’s military and intimidate Washington, which has been ramping up military assistance to the island nation. “Lastly, China seeks to use its military to gradually encroach on Taiwan, making each intensification of military pressure the ‘new normal,’” Stokes writes.
Gulf State Intrigue: There are so many cases involving Qatar’s alleged covert influence operations in the U.S. that it can be difficult to track them. Newly filed charges against Sen. Bob Menendez accuse the New Jersey Democrat of using his influence to help Qatar in exchange for cash, gold bars, Formula 1 racing tickets for a relative, and an offer of a designer watch. Two Republican operatives, meanwhile, admitted in court filings to violating U.S. foreign influence rules over a D.C.-based advocacy group on behalf of the oil-rich monarchy. Qatar’s influence also extends to the U.S. defense and intelligence community. It foots much of the bill for the Al Udeid Air Base, the biggest U.S. military outpost in the Middle East. The Justice Department decided last year not to charge retired four-star Marine General John R. Allen, who it suspected was secretly lobbying for Qatar. Then there’s the ongoing case of a former CIA officer accused of hacking Qatar’s political enemies inside and outside the United States. Former GOP fundraiser Elliot Broidy sued ex-CIA officer Kevin Chalker and his firm Global Risk Advisors, which allegedly hired heavily from the intel world. Broidy claims that Qatar hired Chalker to hack Broidy’s email and distribute confidential information to smear his reputation. (Chalker denies the allegations) The FBI and State Department opened investigations into Chalker following an AP report that found Chalker spied on soccer officials to help Qatar be selected as host of the 2022 World Cup tournament.
2024 Campaign Dezinformatsiya: With Iowa’s GOP caucuses set to begin in days, the intelligence community is worried about how best to blunt the expected flood of foreign disinformation during the 2024 campaign season. Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.), chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, filed an amicus brief with the U.S. Supreme Court this week, asking the high court to allow the government to continue coordinating with social media companies against foreign influence ops. Warner, whose committee conducted deep dives into Russia’s efforts to influence the 2016 election, calls social media the “primary vector” for modern, sophisticated influence campaigns and says that government coordination with social media firms is “the most effective method for countering foreign malign influence.” But the social media-government cooperation faces hurdles: In July, a judge in Louisiana halted coordination between the government and social media companies in a sweeping injunction that was upheld but narrowed by an appellate court. In October, the Supreme Court stayed the injunction, allowing the government to resume talking to social media firms. The high court’s decision in the case, Murthy v Missouri, is expected later this year.
Dissent Channel: Other foreign ministries are often shocked to learn that the State Department has a confidential, internal channel for employees who disagree with U.S. policies and senior leaders. For more than 50 years, State’s dissent channel has given a voice to internal critics, according to the December issue of The Foreign Service Journal. The channel has been buzzing recently with at least three messages urging President Biden to call for a cease-fire in Gaza. One memo, organized by a junior diplomat and signed by 100 State and USAID employees, accused Biden of “spreading misinformation” on the Israel-Hamas war and alleged that Israel is committing “war crimes” in Gaza, according to Axios. Do Dissent Channel messages have an impact? Yes, said Secretary of State Tony Blinken, who maintains he reads and responds to every one of them. Typically, nearly nine messages per year were sent to Washington from 1972 to 2017 via the dissent channel, although in 1977, a record 33 messages were sent. In 1971, Arthur Blood, the U.S. consul in Dhaka, sent a message begging President Nixon to stop the Pakistani military’s “genocide” in what is now Bangladesh. The “Blood Telegram,” as it came to be known, didn’t prompt the White House to act, but it did rally support inside the State Department and helped create the dissent channel the following year.