OSINT observers and military analysts monitoring developments in Syria have raised alarms about increased activity by Russian forces at their Khmeimim Air Base.
Reports highlight the arrival of multiple transport aircraft, a move some interpret as signaling a potential evacuation of critical Russian assets from the region.
“Several Russian aircraft have landed at Khmeimim Air Base in Syria, including the massive An-124. Growing indications suggest that Russian forces are preparing to withdraw their key holdings in the Eastern Mediterranean,” stated OSINTtechnical on X.
The post was accompanied by additional information from The War Zone’s X account: “Signs of possible evacuation at Russia’s Khmeimim Air Base in Syria. Multiple airlifters have arrived at the base. 3 IL-76s and 1 AN-124. The An-72 is usually forward based there. There also appears to be a Su-24 on the runway. Major uptick in airlifted presence. Expect more.”
Renewed offensives by opposition forces against Syrian President Bashar al-Assad have drastically altered the battlefield dynamics, with anti-Assad groups seizing more territory in a week than Syrian and Russian forces managed to capture in years.
By December 3, BulgarianMilitary.com reported that rebel factions had advanced to within 20 miles of Khmeimim Air Base. Specific reports confirmed their presence in the town of Qalaat al-Madiq, northwest of Hama, placing them a mere 21 miles from the Russian military’s strategic stronghold.
Signs of possible evacuation at Russia's Khmeimim Air Base in Syria. Multiple airlifters have arrived at the base. 3 IL-76s and 1 AN-124. The An-72 is usually forward based there. There also appears to be a Su-24 on the runway. Major uptick in airlifted presence. Expect more. pic.twitter.com/uFpCLGpJ4g
— The War Zone (@thewarzonewire) December 7, 2024Meanwhile, Russia’s naval base at Tartus is facing heightened vulnerability as rebel advances push closer. As of December 3, Russia maintained five naval vessels and one Improved Kilo-class submarine at the facility. These included two Admiral Gorshkov-class frigates, one Admiral Grigorovich-class frigate, and auxiliary vessels.
Notably, the auxiliary tanker Yelnya was observed leaving Tartus early on December 2, and subsequent reports suggest that additional vessels may have followed suit.
Droxford Maritime, a respected naval analyst, noted on X and Bluesky, “There is a realistic possibility that the departure is directly linked to the deteriorating situation in Syria.” The timing is critical, as opposition forces reportedly prepare to launch a major offensive toward Damascus itself.
On the same day as Russian airlifters were spotted landing at Khmeimim, U.S. President-elect Donald Trump made an eyebrow-raising statement on X, addressing the developments in Syria.
“Opposition fighters in Syria, in an unprecedented move, have completely taken multiple cities in a highly coordinated offensive and are now on the outskirts of Damascus, seemingly preparing for a major move to remove Assad,” Trump wrote.
He pointed to Russia’s challenges in Ukraine, where losses of over 600,000 troops have reportedly strained its capabilities. “This march through Syria shows Russia’s inability to sustain their position, something that may ultimately be better for them. Syria was never much of a benefit to Russia beyond embarrassing Obama over the ‘red line.’ The U.S. should stay out of this. It’s not our fight. Let it play out.”
Our friends at @planet captured an unusual — likely Iranian — aircraft at Latakia (Khmeimim Air Base/OSLK) earlier today. We think its likely an evacuation flight. Rats fleeing a sinking ship. pic.twitter.com/EseSTOhynV
— Dr. Jeffrey Lewis (@ArmsControlWonk) December 7, 2024As the situation continues to unravel, the potential repositioning of Russian assets at both Khmeimim and Tartus marks a pivotal moment in Syria’s prolonged conflict and Russia’s broader Middle Eastern strategy.
Russia’s Khmeimim Air Base in Syria serves as a central hub for its military operations in the region, showcasing a diverse array of assets that go far beyond just ground forces. The base, strategically located in Latakia, has become a symbol of Russia’s broader ambitions in the Middle East.
Its robust deployment of advanced aircraft, including Su-35S Flankers and Su-34 Fullback bombers, underscores Moscow’s intent to project airpower across the region.
These platforms provide multi-role capabilities, ranging from precision strike missions against opposition forces to air superiority patrols, ensuring control of Syrian airspace.
Beyond fighter jets and bombers, Khmeimim has seen the deployment of a comprehensive suite of support and defense systems. Russia has positioned advanced radar arrays and electronic warfare [EW] equipment, which bolster situational awareness and complicate operations for potential adversaries.
Additionally, the base houses a formidable air defense network, centered on S-400 Triumf and Pantsir-S1 systems. These systems not only safeguard the base itself but also extend Russia’s reach over large swaths of the eastern Mediterranean, creating an anti-access/area denial [A2/AD] bubble that deters external intervention.
Complementing these assets are a variety of logistical and strategic enablers that sustain operations. Transport aircraft, such as the Il-76 and An-124, facilitate resupply and troop rotations, while drone platforms like the Orlan-10 and Forpost provide reconnaissance and targeting data for both air and ground strikes.
The base also hosts a growing contingent of personnel specializing in maintenance, intelligence, and command functions, reflecting its role as a critical node in Russia’s military architecture. This layered deployment of resources underscores Khmeimim’s importance not just as a battlefield asset but as a linchpin of Russia’s geopolitical influence in the region.
The arrival of three Il-76 transport aircraft and one An-124 Ruslan at Khmeimim Air Base has sparked speculation about the types of military assets Russia may be preparing to evacuate.
Both aircraft are heavy lifters, capable of transporting substantial loads, which could include everything from personnel to advanced equipment critical to sustaining Russian operations in Syria.
Given the deteriorating situation on the ground, this uptick in strategic airlift activity could be a sign of Russia repositioning or safeguarding its assets as opposition forces draw closer.
The Il-76, a versatile workhorse of the Russian Aerospace Forces, has a payload capacity of up to 50 tons. This allows it to transport armored vehicles like BTR-82A infantry fighting vehicles or Pantsir-S1 air defense systems, both of which are known to be deployed at Khmeimim.
The aircraft is also capable of carrying troops, supplies, and specialized equipment such as radars or command and control systems, which are crucial for maintaining operations in contested environments.
The presence of multiple Il-76 aircraft indicates that Russia may be prioritizing the extraction of high-value, easily redeployable assets.
The An-124, one of the largest cargo planes in the world, is a game-changer in terms of its evacuation capacity. With a payload of up to 150 tons, the Ruslan can accommodate even the largest and heaviest military equipment.
It could potentially carry S-400 Triumf air defense components, Su-24 or Su-34 aircraft disassembled for transport, or even specialized vehicles and engineering equipment. The An-124’s arrival suggests that Russia is prepared to move critical strategic assets, which may be too valuable to leave behind in a rapidly shifting battlefield.
While the specifics of what these aircraft may transport remain speculative, the timing of their deployment is telling. With opposition forces advancing closer to Khmeimim and Russia’s broader focus strained by its commitments in Ukraine, the airlift effort could mark the beginning of a significant repositioning of Russian forces in Syria.
This would align with broader reports suggesting that Moscow is reevaluating its military footprint in the region amid escalating challenges on multiple fronts.