The struggle between Iran and Saudi Arabia for dominance in the Middle East has insinuated itself into nearly every regional issue, fracturing international alliances and sustaining wars across the region, while raising fears of a direct conflict between the two powers that could involve the U.S.
Saudi Arabia has ramped up its regional adventurism since Mohammed bin Salman, the powerful son of King Salman known as MBS, was appointed crown prince in 2017. And it has cracked down on its domestic critics, including the brutal murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi in October 2018 in the Saudi consulate in Istanbul. That had little effect on the crown prince’s close ties to the Trump administration, though. Determined to undermine the Iranian regime, Washington pulled out of the nuclear deal with Tehran and used its economic might to suffocate Iran’s economy, bringing the two countries to the brink of war in January. President-elect Joe Biden has promised to reengage diplomatically with Iran—and to make respect for human rights a central pillar of his foreign policy. The potential implications for U.S. partners in the Middle East, particularly Saudi Arabia, are significant.
The U.S. and Iran quickly backed away from escalation to open warfare after the U.S. assassination of Iranian Gen. Qassem Soleimani in January. But the Middle East is rife with other ongoing conflicts, including a civil war in Yemen that has fueled one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises, another in Syria that may finally be reaching a no-less bloody endgame, and one in Libya that has seen a respite since a tenuous cease-fire was implemented in October. These conflicts exist on two levels: domestic battles for control of the countries’ futures, and proxy wars fueled by the regional powers, as well as Russia and—in the case of Libya—France.
Meanwhile, though it no longer dominates international coverage, the long-simmering dispute between Israel and Palestine continues to flare up periodically. A round of fighting in May 2019 was the deadliest since 2014. And the Trump administration’s one-sided approach in favor of Israel has done more to legitimize the status quo than to move both sides to a sustainable resolution. Like everything else in the region, this conflict has also become embroiled in the larger power struggle, with Saudi-allied leaders willing to remain silent on the Palestinian issue in return for Israeli support in containing Iran. The U.S.-brokered diplomatic normalization deals Israel recently signed with the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain simply formalized a strategic realignment that had until now been an open secret in the region. The question now is whether Saudi Arabia will follow suit.