The agreement appears to be on hold because of the opposition of prominent figures in Fayez al-Sarraj’s Government of National Accord (GNA).
The silence of the international community, especially that of the United States and the UN mission to Libya, regarding the oil agreement between the commander-in-chief of the Libyan National Army (LNA), Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar, and the Vice President of the Presidency Council, Ahmed Maitig, which provides for resuming oil pumping and exports, is raising insistent speculations about the failure of this Russia-sponsored agreement.
The Haftar-Maitig agreement was announced on Friday, but it appears that it was put on hold because of the opposition of prominent political figures in Fayez al-Sarraj’s Government of National Accord (GNA).
The Islamist-controlled National Oil Corporation (NOC) lifted the status of force majeure on oil facilities and ports it deemed safe, but said the measure would remain in effect on facilities where armed militants were present.
Recently, NOC launched a campaign aimed at exerting pressure to remove the LNA forces from the ports and oil fields, accusing it of deploying mercenary forces from Russian Wagner Group, which are the same accusations put forth by the United States and denied by Russia.
Over the past few weeks, the United States has been leading efforts to have oil production resumed in Libya.
The US Embassy in Libya published a statement confirming Haftar’s agreement to resume production, while observers viewed the Haftar-Maitig agreement as undermining the efforts led by Washington and the UN mission.
The American Enterprise Institute warned of increasing “fragmentation in both eastern and western Libya, which could lead to internal fighting between militias,” considering the “deal” to end the oil shutdowns sponsored by Russia undermines the efforts of the UN and the United States to lift the blockade on energy resources.
The oil agreement, which was sponsored by Russia, eases the pressure on the LNA, which was seen as a hindrance to Libyan and international interests due to the closure of oil ports by tribes loyal to it in protest against the unfair division of oil revenues and the financing of Syrian mercenaries from these revenues, and thus makes NOC the real guilty party for stopping oil production and the deteriorating of living conditions of the Libyans.
The United States wants the army to be completely removed from the vital areas of “Sirte and the oil ports” and having it withdraw to beyond the city of Ajdabiya, a proposal that Haftar rejects and which is certainly also rejected by his international allies—Russia, France and Egypt.
At the end of last August, separate statements by Fayez al-Sarraj and Parliament Speaker Aguila Saleh regarding a ceasefire spoke of arrangements to have the area of Sirte and the oil ports evacuated, paving the way for international forces and police forces from both sides to protect it.
Aguila Saleh’s silence about the Haftar-Maitiga greement was remarkable, strengthening speculations of a rivalry between him and the army general command.
The international community has sapped much of the army’s negotiation assets and tried, over the past few months, to isolate it and transfer its political weight to the Parliament Speaker Aguila Saleh.
With the exception of the expected Russian welcome, there was no reaction to the agreement signed in the Russian city of Sochi between Imraja Ghaith, Minister of Finance in the Interim Government in the East, and Ahmed Maitig, following a month-long marathon of meetings.
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Interim Government in the East called on the UN mission to Libya in particular to “deal positively with this declaration.”
In a statement published on its Facebook page, the ministry invited all countries of the world, especially the UN mission to Libya, to deal “positively with this courageous declaration, and to ensure the flow of oil in accordance with the conditions agreed upon, and with the work of the joint technical committee between the Libyan parties to ensure the smooth provision of basic services (to the Libyan people).”
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Interim Government indicated that the announcement contributes to solving the problem of electricity shortages resulting from the lack of fuel, considering this problem as too onerous and costly for citizens and the country’s vital institutions dependent on diesel and gas.