In today’s summary:
Ukrainian troops attempted to break through to the Belgorod region on a small section of the border in the Krasnoyarsk region
Ukrainian Armed Forces units retreated from the regional center of Sudzha – the former Kursk bridgehead was reduced to approximately 100 sq. km
Near Pokrovsk, Ukrainian troops have already recaptured five settlements during “stabilization” measures
The Russian Armed Forces have launched an offensive in the Zaporizhzhya direction west of Orekhovo – so far the actions are tactical in nature
Russian military created another local bridgehead on the right bank of the Oskol River north of Kupyansk
The first combat use of the Ukrainian long-range missile “Long Neptune” took place – probably at the oil refinery in Tuapse
In the structure of losses of equipment of the Russian Armed Forces, the share of various unarmored vehicles has grown to 85%
The Insider has released an article reviewing American military aid to Ukraine and its importance for the continuation of the war
The situation at the front
The past week was marked by an attempt by the Ukrainian military to break through to the Belgorod region on a small section of the border in the Krasnoyarsk district. Despite the losses in equipment suffered while overcoming the border fortifications and the statement of the Russian Defense Ministry about the defeat of the invading group, by the morning of the second day of the operation (March 19), the units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine managed to reach the Grafovka-Demidovka line, approximately 2 km from the border. On the third day, the odious pro-Russian military blogger Yuri Podolyaka wrote that they managed to take Demidovka in a “semi-ring”, and by the evening, according to information from the Z-channel “ARKHANGEL SPETSNAZ”, to gain a foothold on the outskirts of Demidovka and Prilesye. The Belgorod authorities called on residents of the Krasnoyarsk district to evacuate, but no official evacuation was announced .
On March 21, Ukrainian assault groups continued their attempts to advance towards Grafovka and Demidovka, but were unable to occupy any of the settlements. However, the goal of the operation may not be to control the territory, but to prevent the transfer of liberated Russian troops from the Kursk region to other parts of the front in Ukraine .
Meanwhile, in Kursk Oblast, the Ukrainian Armed Forces presence has been reduced to a border area of about 100 square kilometers — Ukrainian sources have confirmed ( 1 , 2 ) a withdrawal from the district center of Sudzha. Now, Ukrainian troops are occupying border lines in order to prevent a large-scale enemy offensive into Sumy Oblast . At the same time, the Russian Armed Forces continued their attempts to advance from the border through the settlement of Basovka , which they managed to partially occupy , in order to physically cut off logistics for the units remaining in Kursk Oblast. Despite Vladimir Putin’s assertion that Russian troops are “completing the rout” of the Ukrainian group in Kursk Oblast, Rybar wrote about a slowdown in the advance to the border.
Donald Trump, in turn, did not stop talking about the presence of encircled Ukrainian military in the Kursk region, ignoring reports from his own intelligence to the contrary. According to Tatarigami_UA , the Kursk operation of the Ukrainian Armed Forces did not achieve most of the stated goals – neither the distraction of large Russian forces from Donbass, nor the improvement of negotiating positions, nor the expansion of the combat zone on Russian territory were achieved.
In the Pokrovsk direction, the SDU recaptured the village of Shevchenko, the fifth settlement liberated during Ukrainian “stabilization” counterattacks to the west and southwest of Pokrovsk (before 2016, Krasnoarmeysk), which continued along the entire front. The Russian Armed Forces achieved tactical successes on the Nadezhdinka-Preobrazhenka line ( 1 , 2 ) and in the area of the village of Zaporozhye . Fierce counter-battles took place in Uspenovka , and many Russian vehicles were lost in this area. However, the number of Russian troops participating in assault operations in the direction has significantly decreased, reports a Ukrainian serviceman who runs the “Officer ✙” Telegram channel.
DeepState notes on the map the expansion of the zone of control of Russian troops in the southern Donetsk direction near Novosyolka and Skudnoye. According to the Ukrainian military observer Konstantin Mashovets, the pace of advancement of the Russian Armed Forces in this direction “fell to minimum indicators.” The Russian 40th and 336th Marine Brigade were exhausted in the battles for Novy Komar and Novoocheretovatoye, but they failed to achieve the goal of reaching the Komar area, in the rear of the Ukrainian Armed Forces group west of Kurakhove. The situation in this area over the past two weeks has shown the same tendencies to slow down the Russian offensive as in the Pokrovsk direction , the analyst believes.
In the Zaporizhia direction, Russian and Ukrainian sources reported ( 1 , 2 , 3 ) offensive actions by the Russian Armed Forces in the area of the settlements of Pyatikhatki, Stepovoye, Shcherbaki and Malye Shcherbaki to the west of Orekhov. According to geolocation , Russian attack aircraft at least managed to enter the last settlement. Konstantin Mashovets assesses the attacks in this direction as being of a purely tactical nature . Their goal is said to be the breach of the SDU defense by several companies of the 108th Airborne Assault Regiment, but there is no talk of a move to Zaporizhia.
In Toretsk (before 2016 — Dzerzhinsk), fighting continues in the urban area — as DeepState explained , the changes in the LBS were not due to Ukrainian counterattacks, but to the general dynamism of the fighting in the city . On the Seversky salient and the neighboring Liman direction, the situation for the Ukrainian Armed Forces has become more complicated after the loss of heights near Belogorovka, from where the Russian Armed Forces can shell Ukrainian positions in the Serebryansky forestry and potentially pose a threat to Seversk, warns the author of the channel “Officer ✙”.
In the Kupyansk direction, Russian troops have been trying all week to advance towards Kupyansk from the north through Kondrashovka and Malaya Shapkovka from the Russian bridgehead on the right bank of the Oskol River ( 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 , 5 ). An attempt to expand the bridgehead itself in the direction of Figolovka failed , but the Russian Armed Forces managed to create another bridgehead in the area of Krasny Pervy .
Konstantin Mashovets believes ( 1 , 2 ) that the Russian command decided to attack Kupyansk by crossing the Oskol after unsuccessful attempts to break through to the city “head-on” from the Sinkovka side. To do this, the tactic of creating local bridgeheads with their subsequent unification into one large one is used. Forcing the river on the widest possible front complicates the defense of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in this area, but the Russian command also experiences problems with supplies and holding bridgeheads, especially in the context of Ukrainian counterattacks, Mashovets believes.
The Agency. News publication calculated , based on the DeepState map, that during the week from March 10 to March 16, the pace of territorial advancement of the Russian Armed Forces in Ukraine amounted to 22.5 square kilometers. For the third week in a row, the indicator remains at minimum levels since the spring of 2024. Nevertheless, the average number of combat clashes for the same period, according to reports from the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, increased by 21%, although the activity of the Russian Armed Forces in the Kursk direction has decreased.
Military expert Michael Kofman, analyzing the situation on the front for the winter of 2024-2025, writes that the Russian offensive has slowed significantly for three reasons: the depletion of the material base as a result of losses in the fall, the effective adaptation of Ukrainian troops to the enemy’s offensive operations, and winter weather conditions. He notes that the Ukrainian command has strengthened its defenses with minefields, drones (which have become a key element of defense, accounting for up to 60% of losses of the Russian Armed Forces) and artillery, holding off the enemy with a low troop density. Kofman emphasizes that although Ukraine has increased the production of mines and UAVs , the Ukrainians still depend on Western assistance for high-precision weapons, air defense systems and technical support.
According to the analyst, the main problem of the Ukrainian Armed Forces remains the shortage of personnel and weak mobilization, despite efforts to return deserters and stop creating new brigades. The retreat from the Kursk region, according to Kofman, did not lead to strategic changes in the war and did not cause a regrouping of Russian forces in other areas . Kofman also writes that the Russian Armed Forces are experiencing difficulties in breaking through fortified Ukrainian positions, despite the active recruitment of new contract soldiers who partially compensate for losses. They mainly prefer to advance in small groups, which does not provide significant operational successes. Despite the tense situation, Ukraine retains the ability to stabilize the front line and does not need an urgent ceasefire on unfavorable terms .
Lieutenant General Anatoly Bargilevich has been removed from the post of Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine . Major General Andriy Gnatov, who held the post of Deputy Chief of the General Staff , has been appointed in his place. Gnatov previously headed the Khortytsia Joint Force , which is responsible, among other things, for the defense of Donbas.
Mutual shelling and sabotage
The Ukrainian Air Force reported ( 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 , 5 , 6 , 7 ) that it shot down 591 Shahed and other unidentified UAVs out of 1,109 launched over Ukrainian territory. Another 405 UAVs were “lost in location .” It was also reported that eight Russian missiles of various types were launched (no interceptions were declared). The Ukrainian Unmanned Systems Forces reported that they had recently successfully shot down 10 Shaheds using an unnamed munition worth $5,000.
In particular, the following Russian strikes on civilian infrastructure are known:
On the evening of March 14, an attack was carried out on Krivoy Rog, 14 people were injured, including two children;
On the night of March 15, the energy infrastructure of Ukrzaliznytsia in the Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhia regions was attacked . As a result of the attack, sections of the railway were de-energized;
one person died and three were injured after an attack on Izyum in the Kharkiv region on the evening of March 15;
In the Sumy region, two hospitals were attacked in the evening and night of March 18-19 . The hospital building in Krasnopolye was also hit again during the rescue operation;
On March 18, an hour after the end of negotiations with Trump and Putin’s agreement to stop attacks on energy facilities in Slovyansk, an airstrike disrupted the power supply, and three people were reported injured. In addition, during the night of March 19, drone strikes hit the railway power system in the Dnipropetrovsk region. Later, Ukrzaliznytsia reported a second attack on railway infrastructure in the region in 24 hours, injuring four people;
as a result of a massive raid on the city of Kropyvnytskyi on the night of March 20, 10 people were injured ( 1 , 2 ), including four children. The head of the local OVA , Andriy Raikovich, called this attack the largest in the entire war. Ukrzaliznytsia confirmed damage to the railway infrastructure;
One person was killed and two others were injured when Smerch MLRS shelled Konstantinovka in Donetsk Oblast on March 20. The shells hit a warehouse, causing a fire;
On the evening of March 20, Odessa was subjected to a massive drone attack. Three minors were injured, civilian infrastructure facilities, a residential high-rise building, a shopping center and shops were damaged. After the attack, fires broke out in the city ;
On the night of March 21, after a strike on the Zaporizhia district in the Zaporizhia region, six people were injured : two men, three women and one four-year-old boy.
The Russian Defense Ministry, in turn, reported the interception of 526 Ukrainian aircraft-type UAVs over the territory of Russia and the Crimean Peninsula. In addition, the department published an unprecedented report on the destruction of seven of its own drones launched at Ukrainian energy infrastructure after receiving Putin’s order for a moratorium on such strikes.
During the week, the following objects were among those subject to Ukrainian attacks:
an unnamed fuel and energy complex facility in the Astrakhan region on the night of March 17;
front-line workshop of the 155th Marine Brigade in the village of Korenevo in the Kursk region;
oil transshipment point in the village of Kavkazskaya in Krasnodar Krai on the night of March 19; firefighters were unable to cope with the fire, local residents believe that the oil depot will “burn to the ground”;
an aviation weapons and fuel depot at the Engels-2 strategic aviation airfield in the Saratov region on the night of March 20; storage facilities for Kh-101/Kh-555 cruise missiles were damaged , and three military personnel and five civilians were also injured .
Volodymyr Zelensky spoke about the first successful combat use of the R-360 Neptune anti-ship missile with increased range for strikes against ground targets, also known as the Long Neptune . According to sources of the publication Ukrayinska Pravda, the strike was carried out on March 14 on the oil refinery in Tuapse.
Also on the night of March 21, a fire broke out at the Sudzha gas metering station in the Kursk region controlled by the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The Russian Defense Ministry called the incident a Ukrainian provocation, while the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces denied any involvement in it.
According to data collected by CIT volunteers ( 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 , 5 , 6 ), at least 33 civilians have been killed and 262 injured in shelling of civilian infrastructure on both sides of the frontline in the past week.
Losses
The Mediazona publication, together with the BBC Russian Service, with the help of a team of volunteers, updated the calculations of losses during the war on the Russian side based on reports in open sources. The list of names of those killed as of March 21, 2025, includes 99,113 people .
In the Russian army, the time for evacuating the wounded has increased several times — on average up to 14.5 hours, and only 12% of the seriously wounded receive assistance on time . This follows from statistics discovered by the publication Verstka in one of the issues of the Military Medical Journal of the Russian Defense Ministry.
Men in the Ivanovo region disappear under mysterious circumstances, after which they end up at war in Ukraine . According to an investigation by the publication “Verstka”, the missing are mainly socially vulnerable men with alcohol addiction, who are either lured with promises of work or kidnapped and then forced to sign a contract with the Russian Ministry of Defense.
Pro-Russian sources continued to publish footage ( 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 , 5 ) of Ukrainian equipment captured in the Kursk region (mostly in a damaged condition). In total, according to analyst Naalsio ( 1 , 2 ), during the month from February 17 to March 17, at least 39 units of Ukrainian Armed Forces equipment were “captured” in the region, while overall confirmed equipment losses during the operation amounted to 676 units on the Ukrainian side and 720 on the Russian side.
The OSINT project WarSpotting records a consistently low level of Russian losses of equipment and weapons, confirmed by visual evidence, over the past three weeks. Researcher Vitaly notes a further decrease in the share of armored vehicles in the structure of Russian losses – now tanks account for only 5% of losses, armored vehicles – 10%, while unarmored vehicles – 85% . Andrew Perpetua records a similar decrease in the share of armored vehicle losses and summarizes the losses of equipment and weapons of the parties in February 2025. According to his analysis, approximately 17% of Ukrainian losses during this period are accounted for by the Russian UAV Center “Rubicon” (328 out of 1965).
Weapons and military equipment
Vladimir Putin, in talks with Donald Trump, put forward the cessation of arms supplies to Ukraine as a precondition for a 30-day ceasefire . At the same time, Trump himself claimed that he did not discuss military aid in talks with Putin.
The Insider has published a review article on the importance of American military aid for Ukraine . In particular, US support is characterized as key only for certain categories of weapons: air defense systems capable of intercepting ballistic targets, high-precision long-range aviation and artillery ammunition, communications and control systems.
Ukraine has almost run out of Aster-30 SAMs for the Franco-Italian SAMP/T SAM systems . These are the only missiles in the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ arsenal that are capable of intercepting enemy ballistic missiles, in addition to the Patriot PAC-3, the supply of which is entirely dependent on the United States.
Also this week, the following military aid packages for Ukraine became known:
A new batch of F-16 fighters arrived in Ukraine ;
The German government has updated the list of military aid transferred to Ukraine. In particular, three Gepard ZSUs , two Wisent 1 IMRs , 24 FFG MRAP armored vehicles , as well as artillery ammunition, mortar mines, ammunition for the Gepard ZSU, Leopard 1A5 tanks, Marder 1A3 infantry fighting vehicles , and SAMs for the IRIS-T air defense system have been recently delivered;
The German government will also allocate an additional €3 billion for military aid to Ukraine in 2025. In addition, it is planned to allocate more than €8.2 billion from the German budget for the same purposes in the period from 2026 to 2029;
The governments of Ukraine and the Czech Republic are creating the optical reconnaissance satellite constellation “Sozvezdie”. The first satellite, called TROLL, has already entered orbit in January 2025, and the second, called Drak, is being developed specifically for the Ukrainian Armed Forces and has a resolution of less than one meter per pixel.
Ukrainian craftsmen do not abandon experiments with Soviet R-73 air-to-air missiles, which were previously installed on the Osa and BEK air defense missile systems . A mobile air defense missile system based on the HMMWV with such missiles was noticed in service with the 3rd Separate Assault Brigade .
A Russian T-72B3M tank with the Arena-M active protection system, which was created to counter ATGMs , was spotted at the front , but its value against drones is questionable. Russian Zala reconnaissance drones, in turn, received a serial system for evading FPV interceptors based on machine vision ( 1 , 2 ).
Russian front-line craftsmen distinguished themselves with the following products over the week: