War in Israel
War erupted in Israel on Oct. 7, 2023. This war is an attempt by the proxy armies of Iran–Hamas (in Gaza) fighting now, and Hezbollah (in Lebanon) promising to enter the fight if Israel attacks Gaza–to destroy Israel and engulf the region, and possibly the world, in conflict. Israel has been fighting Hamas for over a week. Many Israelis experienced disbelief and shock from the brutal, barbaric, and ruthless attacks by Hamas terrorists during the first week of the war. This shock has transformed into a resolute determination for revenge. Israel has suffered the loss of nearly 1,500 souls, with thousands more injured. Innocents–children, women, and grandparents–were butchered by Hamas terrorists without remorse or pity. At least 29 Americans who were in Israel during the attacks are dead, and other American citizens may be hostages in Gaza. The US is moving forces into the region. America is involved, and people wonder how Hamas could do this. The answer to this question is that Hamas and Hezbollah follow Iranian directives. Whether the orders from Iran were explicit or implicit ignores the core issue. As Kim Ghattas reported in an Oct. 8, 2023, article in The Atlantic: “The Hamas attack against Israel is not only a massive Israeli intelligence and military (as well as a U.S. intelligence) failure, but also a dramatic success for Iran’s axis of resistance from Yemen to Gaza.” Iran seems to have no fear of the US and hopes to destroy Israel. Americans need to know what is happening in Gaza because our military may soon be engaged in combat with Iran and its proxies.
In house-to-house combat in the past week inside Israeli kibbutzim and military outposts, the Israel Defense Force (IDF) has killed 1,500 Hamas terrorists on Israeli territory, reclaimed Israeli settlements near Gaza, and mobilized 360,000 troops.[1] Attacking into the 25-mile stretch of land known as the Gaza Strip is the IDF’s next move. This city is one of the most densely populated cities on earth and about the size of Philadelphia in the USA. To shape the battlespace, Israel has launched over 6,000 missile and bomb strikes against Hamas positions in Gaza since the Oct. 7 attack. The IDF has warned noncombatants to evacuate Gaza and flee to Egypt to avoid being used as human shields by Hamas terrorists. Hamas, however, is blocking their departure, making the situation even more complicated. Israel knows that a block-by-block battle for Gaza will be dangerous, desperate, and deadly. Hamas has bragged that it is prepared for the coming battle and is determined to fight to the end. The terrorists have announced that they have a vast arsenal of small arms, mines, improvised explosive devices (IEDs), antitank weapons, and drones to inflict tremendous casualties on the IDF. The IDF response to Hamas’ boasts is simply this: every Hamas terrorist is a dead man walking. Hamas is the target, not the Palestinian people. Soon, the IDF will begin the ground assault into Gaza. By the time you read this, it may already have begun.
Simultaneously, on the Lebanese border, Hezbollah is engaging the IDF in minor skirmishes and vows to attack with 130,000 rockets and missiles if the IDF assaults Gaza. Such a missile barrage might overwhelm Israel’s Iron Dome defenses and cause untold death and destruction. A US aircraft carrier strike group has moved into range in the Mediterranean to hit Hezbollah in Lebanon if Hezbollah opens a second front against Israel. Other US and UK forces are on the way. On Friday, Oct. 13, Hezbollah’s deputy chief, Naim Qassem, said that Hezbollah was ready to fight and that: “The behind-the-scenes calls with us by great powers, Arab countries, envoys of the United Nations, directly and indirectly telling us not to interfere will have no effect.”[2] On Saturday, Iran sent a message to Israel saying that if Israel invades Gaza, then Iran will intervene.[3] As the war in Gaza progresses into its ninth day, the specter of a more intense conflict, a coming storm of greater devastation, is on the horizon.
American leaders must quickly learn from the fighting in Israel and Gaza and articulate to the American people why we must stand by Israel and prepare for the possibilities that lie ahead. We need leaders with foresight–the ability to solve problems in the short term and create solutions for the long run. Foresight in military affairs is rare, but we must strive for it. Ultimately, those leaders with imagination and foresight are the ones who succeed. To cultivate this foresight, the following insights encourage leaders to think, discuss, and dialogue with the American people and to act before the storm engulfs us.
A Failure of Imagination
Israel, the United States, and Europe were completely surprised by the terrible Hamas attack on Oct. 7, 2023. This is clearly a failure of the intelligence agencies, but it is also a failure of imagination. Over the past quarter-century, the US has exhibited a worrying lack of imagination and little prescience in deterring and winning wars. The attacks on September 11, 2001, against the World Trade Center and the Pentagon, and the subsequent retaliatory, long, and indecisive wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, were significant failures. In particular, our route from Afghanistan was an ignoble, self-induced disaster, and our enemies took notice. We must learn from the fighting in Israel and garner the courage to see our recent defeats for what they are: a failure of imagination. Continuing to fight endless wars far away from home only led to the loss of skilled warfighters, the depletion of our treasury, the distrust of our allies, and the degradation of our ability to project deterrence. We need to do detailed and holistic after-action reviews to find out why we failed and learn from those lessons. Where is the detailed After Action Review (AAR) on Iraq, Afghanistan, and the Global War on Terror (GWOT), and what did we learn from 20 years of this indecisive conflict?
The First Strike
Hamas struck Israel without warning, and Israel is still reeling from this devastating one-two punch, mass rocket and missile barrages coupled with a ground infiltration attack. He who strikes first gains a tremendous advantage, as we witnessed on Oct. 7. According to Chinese, Russian, Iranian, and North Korean military doctrine, a surprise first strike, just as Hamas struck Israel, is the optimal way to start a war. Hamas launched over 3,000 missiles and rockets in their first strike. Most of these were unguided rockets which the Iron Dome took down. Hezbollah, on the other hand, has a large arsenal of precision-guided rockets that will be more difficult to destroy. In such a situation, hardened positions that can withstand a rocket barrage are the difference between life and death. Are our troops stationed overseas, in Syria (about 900 troops), South Korea and the Pacific (roughly 84,000 troops), Europe (about 67,000 mostly in Germany, Poland, Romania, and Estonia), and other places, operating from hardened, protected enclaves or are they in peacetime barracks that offer our enemies easy targets? What are we doing to make our troops hard targets, not easy prey? How will our forces survive an enemy’s first strike?
A Failure of Deterrence
When a bully tells you they are going to “get you,” you can deter them by waving a baseball bat and bravely shouting, “Bring it on.” The attacker may just look at your resolution, see the bat, estimate how many broken bones will ensue, and then call off the attack. Just be sure you do not show up to a gun or knife fight with a baseball bat. Nations act much the same way. They respect force when they recognize they will lose and lose badly if they attack. Deterrence is the ability to make it crystal clear that any attack your enemy attempts will fail, and doing so will bring on his ruin. Deterrence requires three things: 1) having a credible force that instills fear in the enemy; 2) the commitment to rapidly apply violent force if the enemy is not deterred; and 3) clear and consistent messaging that you will do 1 and 2. Your opponent must fear you, know you will fully commit to winning if attacked, and understand this message. Actions count. Words are cheap. Lose credibility to instill fear or the belief that you will rapidly act with violent force and poorly articulate your message, and you lose deterrence. We also need the right weapons to deter the enemy. A baseball bat will not deter an enemy with a shotgun. Military and national security leaders have a duty to understand and study the changing methods of war in order to make deterrence unambiguous. We count on these leaders to deter war and, if deterrence fails, to fight smart and win. Hamas was not deterred on Oct. 7. Israel understands they must reestablish deterrence and that the clock is ticking. The IDF must win a rapid, decisive victory against Hamas. When deterrence fails, winning quickly is vital, as long wars are the ruin of nations.[4] The US did not deter Russia from invading Ukraine or Iran from using its proxy armies to strike Israel. Israel is our most important ally in the Middle East. Will American deterrence stop Iran’s moves against Israel? Xi Jinping, the General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party, says that China will take all measures necessary to absorb Taiwan. Is US deterrence strong enough to keep a determined Communist China from invading Taiwan,[5] possibly in 2024 during a turbulent US election year?
The Expanding Tentacles of Iran
Few in the US Government want to blame Iran for this war. The truth is that Hamas is a proxy army supported, supplied, trained, and endorsed by Iran. Israel knows this, and the US Government knows this, but both are being coy right now as they believe that not naming names will keep Iran from expanding the war. The US State Department says there is no direct proof of Iran’s involvement in the war because to announce otherwise would compel the US to take action against Iran. This is a false hope. Iran wants the Middle East on fire to push its own agenda for regional power.[6] The weaker our response, the bolder Iran will become. Since we will not even mention Iran as the primary power behind the attack on Israel, we are avoiding the issue. This does not reinforce deterrence. It nullifies it. Does the US have the courage to stand up to Iran? How will China and Russia view our actions?
Border Security is National Security
As Hamas fired thousands of rockets into Israel on Oct. 7, small teams of terrorists breached the Israeli border defenses at multiple locations in a well-planned and coordinated assault. Hamas expertly knocked out sensors along the wall, snipers suppressed or killed Israeli soldiers in towers, and demolition teams placed charges on the border wall. Since it was a holiday and apparently no one in the IDF expected a ground attack, Israel’s high-tech, $1.1 billion, 65 km long “Iron Wall” was breached, and the IDF’s forces on guard at the border were killed or overrun. Through the gaps made in the border defenses, thousands of Hamas terrorists entered Israel. They invaded Israel from the ground, sea, and air. Hundreds of Israelis were killed, and about 150 were taken hostage. The IDF underestimated their enemy. IDF soldiers outnumbered and surprised, failed to protect the nation. As the Hamas terrorists stormed forward, unarmed civilians in the nearby settlements were left at the mercy of their attackers, and Hamas showed no mercy, not even for children. The Hamas rampage was barbaric, ruthless, and bloody and specifically designed to enrage and humiliate Israel. The IDF’s high-tech “Iron Wall” was not as successful as when every Israeli carried a gun and devoted riflemen guarded Nahal and Kibbutz communities back in the 1950s. What are the implications to the US with our porous border with Mexico? Will a failure of imagination regarding border security cause our next national catastrophe?
Masking is Vital
Hamas cleverly masked its attack on Oct. 7, gaining surprise in a battlespace that is one of the most sensor-rich in the world. Israel was confident that its Iron Wall with high-tech surveillance sensors would provide early warning of any attack. Multi-layered sensors, from ground level to drones and aircraft to satellites in space, should have detected Hamas terrorists as they massed for the attack, but they did not, or their warnings were disregarded. Masking is the full spectrum, multi-domain effort to deceive enemy sensors and disrupt enemy targeting. It is an essential capability to survive and win in the modern battlespace. In a combination of multifaceted actions, Hamas deceived Israeli sensors and disrupted the IDF’s targeting system. Masking their attack, Hamas achieved tactical, operational, and strategic surprise. Do we understand and embrace masking? Will we be able to detect our enemies in Europe or the Pacific if they decide to strike us?
Drones and Precision Weapons Shape the Battlespace
In their initial attack, well-trained, rehearsed groups of Hamas terrorists had excellent ISR from small surveillance drones and also used drones to drop grenades and attack IDF tanks and positions. Top attack, by precision weapons, missiles, rockets, and drones, is now the preferred method of war. Any power, even Hamas, can employ top attack systems such as small Unmanned Aerial Systems (sUAS) to gain a tactical and operational advantage. Since World War II, the US military has enjoyed air dominance due to its superior air forces, but this is no longer assured. “The threat has changed. Our adversaries, large and small, now integrate Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (ISR) sensors, especially UAS (Unmanned Aerial Systems), with long-range precision fires. For US forces, this is the end of guaranteed air superiority.”[7] Hezbollah is reported to have many precision rockets and as many as 130,000 ready to shoot at Israel. Is Israel prepared for such a barrage? Has Hamas used most of its sUAS in the Oct. 7 attacks, or do they have more in storage, ready to use as the IDF advances into Gaza? Hamas had thousands of rockets and missiles, but few were precision weapons. Our enemies have many more precision-guided munitions and drones than Hamas. War is now a matter of “finders” versus “hiders” and “strikers” versus “shielders.” There is no place in the battlespace that cannot be seen and hit. Today, to be detected is to be targeted is to be killed. Israel has energized industry to deliver new weapons ahead of schedule and will deploy a Directed Energy Weapon (DEW) called the Iron Beam. We may see this counter-missile laser defense system employed in the weeks ahead.[8] Is the US military prepared to defend against and defeat a peer enemy’s top attack forces in our overseas areas or even in the US itself?
A Failure of Military Doctrine
As effective as the Iron Dome missile defense is, defensive systems cannot win wars. In the past few years, some influential IDF leaders worried that the IDF was adopting a defensive “Maginot Line” attitude. This defensive mentality placed trust in walls and technology over aggressive patrolling and hard soldiering. This attitude directly contributed to the surprise and shock Israel experienced on Oct. 7.[9] No technology can take the place of well-trained, expertly-led human soldiers. Over time, the IDF has seen its enemies learn, adapt, and improvise and has correctly identified the proxy armies of Iran, Hamas, and Hezbollah as rocket-based terror armies that are “organized, well-trained armies, well-equipped for their missions.”[10] Israel also knows it must win quickly. Accordingly, the IDF is implementing a new military doctrine called “Decisive War.” Everything that follows in the IDF’s attack on Gaza will be aimed at completely defeating Hamas and, if needed, Hezbollah. A hint that this is the IDF’s intent is the mobilization of nearly every military reservist in Israel. “At its core, the concept is a response to the military establishment’s growing frustration with the previous strategy’s questionable effectiveness against threats from Gaza and Lebanon, deemed ‘a dead-end strategic and doctrinal pattern.’”[11] A key element of this new doctrine is the ability “to attack deep into enemy territory to conquer main nerve centers and inflict a decisive defeat while suppressing enemy rockets and missiles launched nearby toward Israeli forces and toward the home front.”[12] In the weeks ahead, the IDF will attempt to execute according to this new doctrine, and American leaders will have the opportunity to learn from this. Are we thoroughly examining our doctrine and mindset to identify similar problems within the US military? How rapidly can we deploy cutting-edge technology in a crisis?
AI is Ready to Assist Human Decision Makers
Data is now a weapon. Turning data into information and leveraging information at scale in real time requires robust Artificial Intelligence (AI). Connecting AI with networked weapons will accelerate the orient, observe, decide, and act loop (OODA) and generate speed in decision-making and execution. Galileo once said that “the book of nature is written in mathematics.”[13] If so, the book of modern war is written in algorithms, and these algorithms can be harnessed to aid warfighters in seeing the battlespace and executing military actions in real-time. On Oct. 7, the Israelis relied too heavily on their technology to provide early warning and defend the border wall. It is clear that there were too few human warfighters in the defensive zone. Nevertheless, as the IDF conducts a combined arms multi-domain campaign into Gaza, we will see them use AI to their advantage. AI will enable the IDF to sort and apply intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) data and enable the precision targeting of their foes. AI will also play a major role in supporting the coordination among IDF units. The 2021 Israel-Hamas War, called “Operation Guardian of the Walls” by the IDF, lasted only 11 days, but this conflict shows how Israel will fight in the weeks and months ahead. The IDF called this conflict the “first artificial intelligence war”[14], as AI was the key element in their success. Hamas launched 4,360 rockets at Israeli cities and towns, many of which were knocked out of the sky by Israeli Iron Dome anti-missile rockets. The Israeli anti-missile defense was impressive, but to end the war, the IDF had to take the fight to the enemy. Hamas terrorists were hiding among the people, and Israel’s dilemma was to separate combatants from non-combatants in a dense urban battlespace. Israeli sensors collected years of data on their enemies from all sources, centralized this information into a multidomain sensor database and accessed it in real-time to generate multidomain targeting information. Sensors input data continuously and in real-time to update a common operational picture that provided the IDF with a transparent view of their opponents. The IDF also used AI-enabled drone swarms for sensing and striking. The AI-generated a super-fast kill chain that enabled the IDF to eliminate enemy fighters and destroy Hamas rocket launchers while minimizing civilian casualties within the city of Gaza. As Israeli forces attack Gaza in 2023, the IDF will attempt to recreate the success they experienced in the 2021 War. Israeli leaders believe that the coordination of multi-domain effects in real-time requires synchronization by AI.[15] Is the US military capable and ready to use AI to create a super-fast kill chain or an AI-enabled kill web?
Mobilization Matters
The ability to rapidly mobilize a nation’s military manpower, civilian population, industry, and economy is a vital war-winning capability. Under continuing invasion, Ukraine was able to do this in 2022 but is struggling today. The Russians are straining to put troops in the field, and thousands of young Russian men have fled to other countries rather than respond to the call to service. Israel, on the other hand, was able to mobilize as many as 360,000 reservists in less than a week and without protest from the Israeli population. This is a phenomenal feat for a nation of 9.5 million. The entire US Army has a total of 1 million soldiers (active duty, reserves, and National Guard), whereas the US has a population of 337 million. Israel mobilized roughly one-third the force of the entire US Army with a population that is about 35 times smaller. Israel has also mobilized its industry and commercial sector to support the war. In our next crisis, will the US be able to do the same? Do we have the organization and planning needed to accomplish a WWII-like mobilization of our industry and manpower?
The Information War is War
Hamas and Iran have won the first phase of the information war. Merely surprising Israel and wreaking death and destruction was a propaganda “info-war” victory for Hamas and Iran. To reinforce this victory, former Hamas chief Khaled Meshaal called for protests across the world on Friday, Oct. 13, in support of the Palestinians and urged other countries to join the fight against Israel. Many responded. Protests occurred in cities in the Middle East, Europe, Africa, and Asia to respond to Meshaal’s summons.[16] Some US cities raised their threat levels, but no major disruptions occurred in the USA. Israel is on the offensive in the information war, detailing Hamas atrocities and establishing the moral reason for their attack on Gaza, and Meshaal’s countermove was an attempt to blunt the Israeli effort. What happens next in the info-war sphere will make a difference to the overall conflict. America’s next war will also be an information war. Is the US ready to wage an information war to gain worldwide support in the coming crisis in the Middle East, the ongoing war in Ukraine, and the impending crisis with China over Taiwan? What are we doing to prepare for the next info war?
The Requirement for Moral Clarity
In any war, you must know what you stand for, what you will fight for, and what you will die for. You must believe that what you are fighting for is worthy of the sacrifice. In an interview on Sky News Australia on Oct. 13, best-selling author Douglas Murray explained the need for moral clarity during the current crisis: “Our age allowed this to happen… terrorism is glorified while speech is vilified… if someone says they want to annihilate you, believe them… they have said it for years. It is us that are stupid. It is we in countries like Australia, Britain, and America who have been naive, and we should do something about that.”[17] Have we clearly articulated the moral clarity needed to energize the American people? Does the US have the moral certainty to respond to the ongoing crisis in the Middle East, in Europe, or in the Pacific?
America is not heeding the lessons of the wars that have occurred since 2020. We are not ready for what is coming. When Russia invaded Ukraine, we should have turned the US into the arsenal of democracy, ramping up our industry as we did prior to WWII. While the world is focused on what is happening in Gaza, Russia is on the attack at Avdiika in the Donbas, and there is mounting evidence that the Russians are planning a major rocket and missile attack against Ukraine this winter.[18] A gathering storm may soon hit the US, and the attack on Israel is our latest wake-up call. We have squandered these warnings. Time is running out. Very soon, we will regret that we have not risen to this challenge in time. How many more disasters will it take?
He who thinks, wins. Imagination matters. Technology is vital, and humans are more important than hardware, but only if those humans think and prepare. We will not rise to the level of our most exquisite technology; we will fall to the level of our collective training, using what we have when the war starts. If we do not learn from recent wars, we will not get a second chance. The purpose of America’s military power is to deter conflict and win the nation’s wars. Our opponents have studied our methods and failures. We must reimagine how we fight. We must develop leaders with imagination and foresight. We cannot afford to be unprepared in a fight against a peer enemy. If we do not adapt our thinking and act in time, even wars against lesser powers could be disastrous. Time is running out. There is an urgent need to think differently, learn from recent conflicts, and prepare for the next war. If we do so, maybe we can stop it from happening.