Egypt wary of Turkish-Qatari moves in western Libya

Cairo categorically refuses to let the coastal city of Misrata be turned into a base for Turkish naval vessels.

Egypt is showing its frustration with accelerating Turkish and Qatari moves in Libya in support of the Government of National Accord (GNA).

On Tuesday, Cairo dispatched the Director of Military Intelligence, Major General Khaled Megawer, to meet with the commander of the Libyan National Army (LNA), Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar, at the army’s General Command Headquarters in Al-Rajma in eastern Libya. Megawer met with Haftar in the evening and delivered a letter from Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi.

Cairo confirmed its categorical refusal to let the coastal city of Misrata be turned into a base for Turkish naval vessels. This reaction was prompted by the visit to Tripoli of Turkish Defence Minister Hulusi Akar and his Qatari counterpart Khaled al-Attiyah. That visit carried many messages, the most prominent of which was not excluding preparations to cross the red line set by Sisi regarding Sirte and Jufra, and raising the level of mobilisation among the ranks of the mercenaries and militias.

The US initiative for the creation of a demilitarised zone around Sirte and Jafra hit a dead end, as Cairo showed strong reservations about it due to the absence of clear mechanisms that ensure that the initiative does not help the GNA government headed by Fayez al-Sarraj send mercenaries there in the form of security forces of the interior ministry.

A similar fate has met the series of shuttle visits by European officials to Libya and neighbouring countries. There was no progress made in stabilising the ceasefire and launching negotiations for a political solution. Ankara has taken these failures as a sign of the disintegration of international positions, and a green light to continue strengthening its military capabilities in Libya by bringing more mercenaries in from Syria and elsewhere.

Libyan media sources reported that Turkey recently recruited hundreds of Somalis and sent them to Qatar for military training in Doha. From there they were dispatched to Tripoli to join their mercenary comrades from Syria, Tunisia, Chad and Niger.

Cairo monitored a set of accelerating steps that confirm that the situation in Libya is liable to explode during the coming period. As a result, it may be forced to use the mandate given to it by the parliament, the army and the Libyan tribes for military intervention soon.

Egyptian sources told The Arab Weekly that “the red line, which so far has not been crossed because of many factors, does not mean that Turkey can do whatever it wants in western Libya as long as it does not come near it, because any military arrangements made in Tripoli by Ankara and Doha have repercussions on Egypt.”

They added that the preparations being made by Turkey and Qatar suggest that there is a military desire for escalation, an eagerness to test Cairo’s intentions, and a desire to know whether or not the latter is willing to attack sites far from the Sirte–Jufra line.

The same sources also confirmed that what was happening in Misrata, Al-Khums, Al-Watiya base and the Libyan West in general, is connected to Libya’s future and Egypt’s national security, because its effects are extendable. A large military concentration there will inevitably lead to a situation where aggression is very tempting, depending on how far Egyptian patience can be tested. Its patience can also be misinterpreted, however, as reluctance to engage directly in warfare.

The announced meeting between Megawer and Haftar sent an important message, namely that Turkey’s and Qatar’s moves shall have no impact on the current equation nor be tolerated. It also showed that the LNA, with the help of the Egyptian army, can abort any plans early enough,

The head of the Egyptian Centre for Thought and Strategic Studies, Brigadier General Khaled Okasha, said that Megawar’s visit confirms that the Egyptian military agencies are in constant contact with the LNA to ensure the protection of the strategic points of the Libyan state, and the vital locations that have frequently been targets of Turkish harassment.

Okasha told The Arab Weekly that the visit proves that Cairo will continue to provide support to the LNA in its war against terrorist elements mobilised by Ankara, in a way that does not undermine political efforts and ensures that the military balance is not changed and stands in the way of attempts to create a new fait accompli on the ground.

A few days ago, two Turkish frigates arrived at the port of Khums, 135km. east of Tripoli, in a move that confirmed Ankara’s plans to dominate the ports of western Libya and turn them into a rear base for its military operations, which would allow it to deploy naval assets and establish its military and commercial presence in the southern Mediterranean and North Africa.

In addition, Ankara has equipped Al-Watiya base with air defences and drones, and repaired its infrastructure again after it was bombed and destroyed by unidentified aircraft amid fears that it was being used to prepare an attack on Sirte and Jafra.

Reports have also emerged about Ankara and Doha’s agreeing with Sarraj to issue Libyan passports to mercenaries and integrate them into the GNA’s forces under Turkish supervision. These mercenaries would be assigned the task of securing and protecting government headquarters, with Qatar providing the necessary financial backing.

Reports say Sarraj agreed to cooperate with Turkey and Qatar to increase the capacity of his government forces by facilitating the stationing of military personnel from Turkey and Qatar in areas controlled by the GNA, receiving Qatari advisers and sending members of his forces for training in Turkish and Qatari military academies.

An Egyptian source said in a statement to the official Middle East News Agency that these developments “represent a departure from the logic behind the Skhirat Agreement and the mandate emanating from it, and the relevant UN Security Council resolutions … They also represent a threat to the future of the Libyan people.”

Should the information regarding the Turkish repositioning in Libya turn out to be true, it would be a transgression by the Libyan parties involved, which would be illegally offering the use of Libyan cities and ports to benefit foreign countries, threatening the stability of the entire Mediterranean region, north and south, and increasing the risks to the stability and security of the region.

Okasha stressed that Cairo is keen to provide support to the national state institutions in Libya, and at the same time is monitoring Turkey’s attempts to circumvent international positions on the ceasefire and clear the way for a political solution. That is why it is closely monitoring Ankara’s violations.

He explained that Qatar and Turkey are trying to seize the centres of power and influence in Libya so that they would effectively become the ones pulling the strings in Tripoli from behind the scenes, in a feverish race against time before the end of the mission of the current GNA, which will sooner or later be removed from the scene. They realise that in the end, their security, military and maritime agreements signed with the GNA will carry no weight in light of the lack of recognition by the international community.

Cairo’s policy on Libya takes two parallel tracks, one of which is coordination with the LNA and gauging the limits, form and timing of military action inside Libya, and the other is urging the international community to shoulder its responsibility towards Libya and have the major powers abandon their silence about what Turkey has been doing there. Furthermore, and following a long period of being excluded from the Libyan scene, Qatar has publicly and openly joined Turkish designs in Libya, as it wants to have a clear foothold in the war in Libya, and perhaps in the settlement if it ever sees the light.