Ever since Henry Kissinger coined the term, “constructive ambiguity” has become a favorite of diplomats across the world. But sometimes, ambiguity just doesn’t cut it.
This seems to be the case for Ukrainians who would like to see a less-ambiguous Turkish stance over the bloody Russian occupation of their lands. Reporting the growing disgruntlement on the Ukrainian side over Ankara’s balancing act between Kyiv and Moscow, Amberin Zaman provided a detailed account of the “malaise besetting” Turkish-Ukrainian ties.
Ankara’s decision to release a Russian ship that Kyiv charged was laden with grain out of Russian-occupied Berdyansk is the latest in a string of frustrations on the Ukrainian side, Zaman reported. Turkish authorities halted the ship off the Black Sea port of Karasu last week upon the request of Kyiv only to release it within a week. The move prompted the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry to summon the Turkish ambassador in Kyiv.
The ship “was allowed to leave Karasu port despite criminal evidence presented to Turkish authorities,” Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry Spokesman Oleg Nikolenko lamented. While legal grounds to establish the theft is a challenge as the ambassador conceded, the case against the Russian ship was “watertight,” Zaman noted.
In an article published before its release became public, Fehim Tastekin also provided a similar account. “Turkey’s balancing act between Russia and Ukraine may have raised its diplomatic profile in the war, but not without dropping some hot potatoes in its lap,” he wrote, listing three major reasons why the affair is troubling for Ankara.
Zaman reported that the incident may lead to a shift in the Ukrainian public’s psyche in which Turkey has held a dear place so far, largely owing to the efficiency of the Turkish Bayraktar drones against the Russian troops. “Since the start of the war, the Ukrainian public has become very sensitive about Russia and Russians and the narrative that Turkey is balancing both sides,” Ukraine’s Ambassador to Ankara Vasyl Bodnar told Zaman in an exclusive interview with Al-Monitor.
Ankara seems to be aware of the outrage that the incident set off on the Ukrainian side as both Turkey’s foreign minister and defense minister held phone conversations with their Ukrainian counterparts in damage control efforts.
A possible atonement that can reverse the trajectory might be a success in the talks to set up a safe export corridor for Ukrainian grain in the Black Sea. Ankara’s shuttle diplomacy between Kyiv and Moscow is ongoing with Cavusoglu discussing the matter with his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov in a meeting yesterday. An official Turkish statement said the two top diplomats “confirmed their readiness to continue close contacts” between the leaders of the two countries, confirming earlier reports of a prospective meeting between Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Russian leader Vladimir Putin.
Bodnar also voiced optimism. “I believe that we will see some kind of agreement as a result of combined mediation efforts by Turkey and the UN,” he told Zaman.
On the other hand, all these aforementioned developments hardly cast doubt on the well-earned reputation of “diplomatic ambiguity,” as it was the vital element of last week’s NATO deal allowing Turkey, Sweden and Finland to present the deal however they wish.
Swedish Premier Magdalena Andersson simply said her country would “continue to respect national and international laws”
Erdogan, for his part, said each of the groups that Ankara considers a “terrorist organization” had “taken their places in the official NATO’s records.”
Under the deal, Finland and Sweden pledged not “to provide support” to groups that Turkey considers a threat to its national security, namely the Syrian Kurdish Democratic Union Party (PYD) (the dominant political party of the Kurdish-led self-rule in northern Syria), the Syrian Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) (a major ally of the US-led coalition in the fight against the Islamic State) and the Fethullah Gulen Terror Organization (FETO) that Ankara accuses of masterminding the bloody coup attempt in 2016.
“YPG, PYD and FETO will enter [the NATO] records. Otherwise, we told them sorry but we will not sign this,” Erdogan gloated on Wednesday.
The deal has provided ammunition for Erdogan to capitalize on and deflect attention from Turkey’s staggering economic crisis. Consumer prices in Turkey rose 4.95% in June, bringing annual inflation to nearly 80%, the highest reading since 1998, as Mustafa Sonmez reported.
Turkish government officials have continued to stir up the issue by successive statements threatening to impede the Nordic enlargement of NATO unless Helsinki and Stockholm fulfill their promises to Turkey. Turkey’s Justice Ministry said on Wednesday that a reminder note was sent to Finland and Sweden, reviewing Ankara’s extradition requests from both countries.
Meanwhile, Erdogan’s government seems less eager to gloat over another progress on the foreign policy front: rapidly improving ties with Israel. As Nazlan Ertan reported, the two countries inked an aviation accord yesterday, paving the way for Israeli passenger carriers to resume their flights from Israel to Turkey after a break of more than a decade. Israel also announced the reopening of its commercial office in Istanbul. Yet, unlike the Israeli side, which trumpeted the news, the Turkish side has played it down, as Ertan observed, with official bodies involved in the deal passing the buck to each other “on who would make a press statement.”
The Turkey-Israel rapprochement comes as part of Ankara’s efforts to mend ties with its former regional rivals Egypt, Israel, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. As part of the diplomatic push, Turkey’s Defense Chief Hulusi Akar and Chief of Staff of the UAE Armed Forces Hamad Mohammed Thani Al Rumaithi discussed cooperation in the defense industry in a meeting in Ankara on Wednesday.
Can more fence-mending be in store? My wild guess is that India could be next in line. The ties between the two countries deteriorated over Erdogan’s overt support for Pakistan on the disputed Muslim majority territory of Kashmir and several other issues over the past years. But there are signs that the tide might be turning. Erdogan, whose high pitch outbursts in similar occasions are well-established, conspicuously stayed silent in the face of controversial remarks by top Hindu officials about Prophet Mohammed last month. On Tuesday, Turkey’s pro-government Daily Sabah ran an op-ed piece titled “Is India-Turkey rapprochement in the offing?” Finally, on Thursday, Turkey’s Trade Minister Mehmet Mus cited India as one of the countries that Ankara would like to deepen economic cooperation with.
In any case, Ankara’s diplomatic push is poised to shift toward the east in the upcoming weeks. Erdogan is scheduled to visit Iran on July 19. Tehran will host a three-way meeting between top Iranian, Azeri and Turkish diplomats, Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian said Monday. Ankara also is set to host a trilateral summit between Turkey-Turkmenistan-Azerbaijan, Turkish Vice President Fuat Oktay said, announcing plans to carry gas from Turkmenistan to Europe.
On the domestic front, the Turkish government’s ever-expanding hit list extended to pop star Mabel Matiz. As Nazlan Ertan reported, his new video clip was effectively banned from being broadcast for insinuations of homosexuality. The Turkish government’s pressure on the LGBTQ community is steadily increasing as hundreds of demonstrators were detained during the pride marches across the country.
In some lighter news, Latvia’s Ambassador to Turkey Peteris Vaivars caught our radar while skilfully dancing to a local tune known as Erik Dali (plum branch) during a fest held in Turkey’s central Anatolian city of Eskisehir.
Finally, if you are in Istanbul during the long Eid al-Adha holiday, one option may be to visit “The Prince’s Extraordinary World: Abdulmecid Efendi” at Sakip Sabanci Museum. Otherwise, Ayla Jean Yackley recounts how Islam’s last caliph defied through his paintings today’s official narrative that the House of Osman was the embodiment of Islamic piety.