BALTIC SEA
Two explosions Monday damaged the Nord Stream pipelines, which carry Russian natural gas to European markets, causing leaks into international waters off a Danish island. Russia had switched off the pipelines earlier in September amid tensions with the West over its war in Ukraine. European Commission head Ursula von der Leyen and NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg both described the blasts as “sabotage”. The press quoted unnamed European leaders pointing the finger at Moscow, which denied any role, suggesting instead that Washington had most to gain from damaging the pipelines. Crisis Group expert Giuseppe Famà says the incidents will not only add immediate pressure on European gas prices but also cast Nord Stream’s future into doubt as Europe strives to diversify its energy supply sources in order to curb its dependence on Russia.
IRAN
Anti-government protests entered their third week, amid widespread outrage at the 16 September death of Mahsa Amini, 22, in police custody. Severe restrictions on internet access make it difficult to fully assess the scope of unrest, but it appears to be nationwide, as Iranians voice multiple longstanding grievances. Security forces have cracked down hard, killing at least several dozen, and injuring or arresting many more. The government’s repressive response has brought broad international condemnation, including fresh U.S. sanctions. Crisis Group expert Naysan Rafati says the iron fist may suppress the mass expression of dissent, but there is little sign the government is willing to address the underlying causes.
RUSSIA
Russians continued to leave the country, packing flights and lining up for hours at crossings into countries such as Georgia, to escape President Vladimir Putin’s order mobilising 300,000 men for the front in Ukraine. The mobilisation order, like Moscow’s announcement that it was annexing partly occupied Ukrainian territory, is an escalation, says Crisis Group expert Olga Oliker, but also evidence that Russia’s war effort is struggling. European countries should let fleeing Russians apply for asylum rather than barring the door, as many are doing at present, both for humanitarian reasons and to degrade Russia’s war machine. They should also take steps to relieve the burden of receiving the Russians on front-line countries within and outside the European Union.