Special Analysises

4 Member IS Wilayat Kavkaz Returning Foreign Fighter Cell Killed; Drone and other weapons seized in Dagestan, Russia

On 22 August, the Russian Air Force announced that it had destroyed Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) underground drone facility in Idlib, Syria. Organizations such as Islamic State, Jund al-Aqsa, Houthi Movement (Ansarallah) and HTS are among non-state actors who use weaponized drones. Mexican drug cartels have been experimenting with weaponized drones too but to date they have yet to do so successfully. Besides the organized groups who have been utilizing drones, of particular concern are the small cells and lone wolf reports of modifying commercially available drones for attacks. One recent example occurred on 29 July 2020, when Hisham Muhammad, modified the “release mechanism” of a commercial drone to plot attacks in the name of Islamic State in Manchester, England. As commercial drones become more advanced and the use of drones as delivery mechanisms for retail purchases become more commonplace, so the do the opportunities for malicious actors to transform them into weapons of terror.

Special Analysises

Trapped – Punjab Assembly Bill – For Unity against Unity?

Three decades of sectarianism causing lives of hundreds primarily followers of Shia sects turned Pakistan into a broken state. The Muslim nation with highest degree of potential to lead the entire Islamic Ummah is buried under heavy international debts, never ending political crisis, social instability, slavery of West-Saudi and above all religious discord making Pakistan the nursery for religious terrorism.

This extreme form of massacre under the umbrella of religion never saw a reversion to Muslim unity until last few years. When Takfirist ideology-based terrorism span beyond Shiite and landed into the homes of its own ioneers, the Pakistan army an action plan was seen to eradicate this evil tree. After Peshawar army school attack the army made an intention for cleansing terrorists. Though a good attempt but only addressed to chopping of leaves and stems not addressing its primary root of Takfirist Ideology which was growing stronger every day specifically with Saudi elements visiting Pakistan to keep it warm. The Takfirist Ideology had deep rooted state ponsors and promoters within the system and with heavy influx of funding and moral support from Ale Saud the Takfirist terrorism factor was to be kept alive. The only solution to this terrorism whose basis was sectarianism as to revive the spirit of Islamic Unity across sects. Though certain attempts were made but got politicized whereby unity turned into political alliances contesting elections like Muttahida Majlis e Amal (MMA) and Majlis Wahdat e Muslimeen (MWM). This unity which is power driven would never solve the root cause to eliminate Takfirism from Pakistan. An ideological effort was required where various sects and their leaders whole heartedly ccept that Muslim Unity is not for political purpose but is an Islamic obligation related to faith. Striving for something as precept of faith, religious covenant is totally different from achieving the same goal for olitical objectives.

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Special Analysises

Dollars for Daesh: The Small Financial Footprint of the Islamic State’s American Supporters

Abstract: An analysis of all related court cases since 2013 shows that, save for a few exceptions, the vast majority of U.S.-based Islamic State supporters left a remarkably small financial footprint. Most, in fact, simply relied on personal savings to pay the small costs required for their activities. Some engaged in specific fundraising activities, which tended to be fairly unsophisticated. The crime-terror nexus prevalent in Europe has been virtually absent in the United States with respect to the Islamic State-linked cases, and very few U.S.-based supporters engaged in financial transactions with full-fledged Islamic State members, with only one known case of an individual who received funding to carry out an attack domestically. The small size of the financial footprint of U.S.-based Islamic State supporters is, in itself, good news for U.S. authorities but has a flipside, as the scarcity and inconspicuous nature of the financial transactions of many U.S.-based Islamic State supporters can represent a challenge for investigators.

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Special Analysises

Islamic State West Africa (ISWA / ISGS): Suicide Bomber Targets French & Malian Convoy on Road Between Ansongo & Menaka, Near ‘Indelimane (In -Delimane) & IED Targets Convoy Following Day in I Hagana, Garo Region, Mali

Reporting from London, Sophia Badawy follows developments throughout Africa. This week, Badawy followed the Islamic State in Greater Sahara (ISGS) very closely. The group has been actively targeting the In-Delimane (Ansongo) since November 2019. Because of its location, before ISGS, the area was targeted by JNIM. On 14 March, Badawy began collecting on the ISWA/ISGS suicide bombing targeting a French and Malian convoy.

Special Analysises

Energy Geopolitics in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Battle for Libya

Just last week, France agreed to send war frigates to the eastern Mediterranean, a decision welcomed by Greece and decried by Turkey. The relationship between Paris and Athens has been strengthened over the issue of access to energy reserves, with the two countries pursuing a more comprehensive framework for strategic defense. The French deployment of warships can just as easily be seen as a signal to Turkey, which has stationed its own navy in the Mediterranean, ostensibly as a show of force. France and Turkey find themselves on opposite sides of the conflict in Libya, and French President Emmanuel Macron has publicly castigated Turkish leader Tayyip Recep Erdogan for Ankara’s increasing involvement in Libya.

The potential for an energy bonanza in the eastern Mediterranean has led to increased tensions throughout the region, from southeastern Europe to North Africa. Vast deposits of natural gas have been discovered off the island of Cyprus, a country divided since the mid-1970s between a Greek Cypriot majority and a Turkish Cypriot minority. The internationally-recognized Greek Cypriot government has moved forward with exploring the surrounding waters for energy deposits, bringing in the French energy giant Total and Italy’s ENI to continue searching for natural gas. The discovery of large deposits of hydrocarbon reserves in 2009 exacerbated existing but somewhat dormant tensions between countries in the eastern Mediterranean. The fight for energy exploration and production licenses has highlighted the commercial element to this geopolitical struggle.

An agreement between Turkey and Libya’s Government of National Accord (GNA) sets out new maritime boundaries and has contributed to an increase in the friction between Greece and Turkey. The newly forged deal with Libya represents just one in a series of commercial, legal, and diplomatic spats over maritime boundaries and potential supply and shipping routes. Turkey’s claims, under the agreement, infringe upon existing claims by Greece and Cyprus. The ‘EastMed’ pipeline project has led to opposing blocs, with Greece, Israel, Cyprus, and Egypt on one side, and Turkey, the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (only recognized by Turkey) and Libya’s GNA on the other. The project is intended to deliver Israeli gas to southern Europe through Greece and Cyprus.

Libya has been caught in the middle, serving as a battleground for foreign interference and external military intervention. Libyan warlord Khalifa Haftar has enjoyed the support of the United Arab Emirates, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, and France, despite his forces’ penchant for indiscriminate killings and war crimes. The role played by the UAE has been particularly pernicious, with Abu Dhabi supplying drones and fixed-wing aircraft to Haftar and the Libyan National Army (LNA). The Emiratis, Russians, and others have flooded Libya with weaponry in blatant violation of the United Nations arms embargo, which some have referred to as ‘toothless.’ The LNA has waged a scorched-earth campaign to capture Libya’s capital Tripoli, killing thousands, including hundreds of civilians in the process. Libya’s infrastructure is being destroyed, and hundreds of thousands of civilians have been displaced. Turkey continues to support the besieged GNA by providing military support and helping orchestrate Syrian mercenaries to the battlefield. Erdogan’s most significant contribution will be, if he can achieve it, helping to bring a temporary respite in the fighting for long enough that a cease-fire or peace deal can be negotiated, In the meantime, he will continue seeking to exploit Libya’s energy resources.

Special Analysises

Aleksandr Dugin: Any Major War Will Lead to “Israel’s” Demise

Is what some people call Turkey’s ‘strategic shift’ towards the Eurasian bloc and far from the Atlantic league over? The direct involvement of the Turkish army in the battles of northern Syria, the fiery statements of officials in Ankara, and the cordial US attitudes toward an ‘allied country’ are all elements that suggest the answer to this question is affirmative.

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President Tayyip Erdogan Now Claims Syria’s Idlib Province Belongs to Turkey

On February 26th, Turkey’s President, told his Islamist political party that Idlib, which is the most heavily jihadist of all of Syria’s provinces and the province where Syria had been sending jihadists who had been defeated but not killed by the Syrian army elsewhere in the Syrian war, is now permanently under Turkey’s protection, and belongs to Turkey — Turkish territory. Russia’s RT news headlined on the 26th, “‘We’re the hosts there’: Erdogan says Turkey won’t pull back from Syria’s sovereign territory, gives Assad ultimatum to retreat”, and reported that, The Turkish leader has ruled out withdrawal from Idlib, where his forces are backing militants fighting the Syrian Army. He also gave Damascus an ultimatum to retreat beyond Turkey’s observation posts placed on Syrian soil.

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US Biological Warfare Program in the Spotlight Again

This is a scoop to bring the US biological warfare effort back into the spotlight. On Sept. 11, Russian media reported that the Richard Lugar Center for Public Health Research laboratory, a research facility for high-level biohazard agents located near Tbilisi, Georgia, has used human beings for conducting biological experiments.p> Read More

Special Analysises

Malhama Tactical: Interview

Malhama Tactical is perhaps the best known training outfit in the northwest of Syria, providing assistance to the insurgent groups operating in Idlib and its environs. Malhama Tactical has been known to have a particularly close working relationship with Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, the leading insurgent group in the northwest region. On 26 February 2020, I conducted an interview with Ali Shishani, the current leader of Malhama Tactical, regarding Malhama Tactical and the current situation in northwest Syria. The interview is slightly edited for clarity. Any parenthetical insertions in square brackets are my own.

Q: Could you tell us a little about your own life in jihad and the role of Malhama Tactical? With which factions do you work? Are most of your members muhajireen [foreigners]?

A: Much can be said about our life in jihad. But speaking generally, our life here is the life of independent foreign volunteers, with all its advantages and disadvantages.

Activity of Malhama Tactical is primarily aimed at increasing the combat effectiveness and tactical level of the fighting units of the Mujahideen, bringing them to a higher level and we have succeeded in it over the years of our work. It was mostly done in terms of the level of regular fighters, but not commanders – because the commanders of local Mujahideen with whom we worked do not take advanced training courses and do not accept our advice, unfortunately.

During our instructor activity, more than five thousand fighters have passed our training courses, including the well-known special unit “Red Bands” [special unit of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham]. We provide training courses in different military fields.

Also, our organization periodically played a significant role in fights on the fronts, for example, during the operation, aimed at unlocking [breaking siege] of Aleppo in 2016, our team prepared one of the stages of the operation, which was successfully implemented. Our organization also developed a plan and implemented it during the battles against the Kharijites of the so-called IS [Islamic State] in the province of Hama in 2017, when the “IS”, together with the Assadists, seized some territories from the Mujahideen. Our organization, together with the HTS [Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham], regained the strategic positions previously captured by the IS gangs.

Our team also conducted both independent and joint special operations with other groups against Assadists, including a special operation in the aerial reconnaissance base in Aleppo.

Our organization also carried out artillery reconnaissance and coordination of artillery fire of local factions during the offensive campaigns against Assadists, and introduced new methods of reconnaissance and correction for local factions. We also worked in the field of air defense and shot down an Assad regime aircraft in August 2019.

Moreover we organize and implement the strengthening of the fighting positions of the Mujahideen.

As for the factions with which we work. Most of all we worked with HTS. However, our doors are open to all factions of the Mujahideen who defend the Syrian people and fight in the interests of this people. At the moment, we have agreed to work with the Popular Resistance Units of Idlib (Saraya al-Mukavamati al-Sha’biyya) [NB: see here for more information]. Half of the members of MT [Malhama Tactical] are Muhajirs, half are local Syrians.

Q: Why have factions lost so much territory in northwest Syria recently? Is it true factions did not prepare for campaign? Is Russian airpower too strong?

A: Russian aviation is strong, stronger than the Assad regime. But the firepower and technical superiority of the Russians is not the main reason of losing of the territories. The territories were lost for two main reasons. The first reason: the lack of unity between the factions, at least at the military level, that is, the lack of a single military leadership over the factions and proper coordination between them. The second reason: the incompetence of the military leadership of the Mujahideen. Over the past years, we have been trying hard to reach the highest military emirs in order to change their attitude to tactics and strategy, but they did not want to hear us. Territories fell due to the erroneous strategy and tactics of military leadership, and the inability to manage a large number of Mujahideen. And no matter how good ordinary soldiers are, success will not be until there is a competent military leadership of these forces. And this is a systemic problem – it is necessary to completely change the perception of these military emirs about war principles or to replace these people with military competent ones. The firepower of the Russians became so effective only because of wrong approach of the military emirs. And they stubbornly rejected all our initiatives, ideas and advice.

The factions were preparing for battle, but not in the right way. The most important military spheres were ignored by them.

They focused on preparing new fighters and digging trenches, forgetting about military leadership, strategic planning and great tactics.

Q: What do you think of a Turkish role in northwest now? Do you trust Turkish role? Do you welcome their action against regime and Russians?

A: The role of Turkey is the role of a helper of the Syrian people, both humanitarianly and militarily. Not everything is perfect, but we hope that Turkey will live up to the hopes of the Mujahideen and the Syrian people, and thereby achieve the trust of those who are still skeptical about the plans of Turkey. We welcome and fully support Turkey’s actions against the regime and the Russians, and hope to increase their participation.

Q: How do you assess future of northwest region and jihad in Syria?

A: We cannot speak clearly about the future. But if all the Syrian factions unite completely both militarily and politically, having left all past differences and work together with the Turkish army, then it will be possible to fix everything and return the lost territories, and turn the tide of the entire Syrian jihad.

Q: How can Muslims support Malhama Tactical?

A: Firstly, Muslims can make duas [prayers] for us. Secondly, we always needed and need financial support. Everything from military projects to everyday aspects needs finances, and wealthy Muslims could help us financially. And thirdly, Muslim journalists and information activists can provide us with information support, covering our activities, so that more Muslims know about us and the situation here and make a dua for us.

Special Analysises

Video claim of credit by AQAP. Raymni also encouraged knife attacks such as “stabbing with household knife” at the 12:55 minute mark. Five different stabbings were featured listing both the United States inspirational street stabbings. US is top target but “British Muslims” were the target audience for the proposed stabbings.

TRAC President Veryan Khan and Analyst Bethany Rudibaugh spent time this week on a claim of credit by al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) for the 04 December shooting at Naval Air Station Pensacola. Saudi Air Force member, 2nd Lt. Mohammed Saeed Alshamrani, opened fire during a training program, killing three before being shot dead by Sheriff’s deputies. Designated as terrorism, the incident had huge implications for U.S. “security cooperation” training programs. Thousands of foreign national military service members are brought to the U.S. annually to help develop military skills and to reinforce multi-national relationships. The attack forced a temporary halt to programs involving Saudi Arabia. On 02 February, AQAP issued an unexpected claim of credit by posting a video/audio message on a Telegram channel. Khan and Rudibaugh examined video to determine authenticity and the connection with Alshamrani. Their analysis deemed the lag time for the claim “not unusual,” pointing to the week it took for AQAP to claim Charlie Hebdo in 2015; and concluded that It should be noted that Raymi did not give any direct evidence that Mohammed Alshamrani was an AQAP fighter, but did offer images of Alshamrani’s personal life.

Rumors Circulate: Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) Leader Qasim al-Raymi Killed by US Drone Strike in Wadi Ubaidah District , Marib, Yemen – 30 January 2020

According to the U.S. Rewards for Justice Program “Qasim al-Rimi was named emir of AQAP in June 2015, immediately after he swore allegiance to al-Qa’ida leader Ayman al-Zawahiri and called for renewed attacks against the United States. Al-Rimi trained terrorists at an al-Qa’ida camp in Afghanistan in the 1990’s, and subsequently returned to Yemen and became an AQAP military commander. He was sentenced to five years in prison in 2005 in Yemen of plotting to assassinate the U.S. Ambassador to Yemen, and escaped in 2006.”

The AQAP claim for the Naval Air Station Pensacola attack follows intense speculation on the leader of the terrorist group, Qasim al-Raymi. On 29 and 30 January 2020 chatter circulated Twitter about an alleged United States drone strike on the residence of an “al-Qaeda member” in the Marib province of Yemen.After further investigation into this chatter, tweets surfaced that al-Raymi had been targeted and killed in the strike. If confirmed that Qasim al-Raymi was killed, AQAP’s leadership structure will have to reorganize and certainly will affect their operations at least in the short term

(Instructional Advice) Anarchist: How-To Destroy Signal Boxes and Railroad Tracks to Disrupt Trains Using Thick Gauge Copper Wire & Thermite in North America – 25 January 2020 (Advocating Attacks on Infrastructure)

The “Act For Free / Act For Revolution” website banner

On 25 January, TRAC Analyst, Kelsey Tamplin discovered on the anarchist website, “Act For Free / Act For Revolution,” which is known for posting anarchist activity around the world from official groups and self-starter/lone wolves, an instructional manual on how to destroy railways. Even before the instructional manual was published, there were two sabotage attacks on Canadian railways – both of which appeared to have been committed by lone wolves. It is worth noting that there is some similarities between the instructions on railways and other recent instructions given by white nationalists on Telegram. However, the anarchist instructions are much more detailed than those of the racists’ online echo chamber.

Caliphate Soldiers Targeted The Gas Pipeline Between The Jews and The Egyptian Government By Several Explosive Devices In ‘al-Talol’ Village, East Bir al-Abd, Sinai, Egypt – 3 February 2020

The “Act For Free / Act For Revolution” website banner

TRAC Analyst, Sophia Badawy reported a claim by Islamic State Sinai (ISS) attempting to make good on the promise from the new Caliph to attack Israel. Egypt began importing gas from Israel last month through an East Mediterranean Gas Company (EMG) pipeline, which includes a sub-sea connection between el-Arish in Sinai and Ashkelon in Israel. In the second audio message released by the new Caliph, Shaykh Abu Hamza al-Qurashi, he specifically called on cells in the Sinai to attack Isreal and it appears that Islamic State Sinai (ISS) is attempting to answer that call.

Special Analysises

10 reasons why Boko Haram still shoots and bombs despite defeat

By Theophilus Abbah At the rate Boko Haram terrorists launch suicide attacks, lay siege on the military, kill helpless civilians, and kidnap the vulnerable in the North-East in spite of

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How Boko Haram killed 30 in Borno

Boko Haram fighters on Sunday killed no fewer than 30 people who were travelers that spent the night in Auno, a community 25km away from Maiduguri. The attack which lasted

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