South East Asia

Russia looks to the Taliban as a stabilising force in Afghanistan – and this may mean formal recognition of the new regime in the country.

During the farewell meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and German Chancellor Angela Merkel in Moscow last month, Putin spoke in public about the Taliban takeover for the first time. He stated that the world needs to proceed in Afghanistan from the reality that the Taliban have become the authorities of the country, and that it should refrain from continuing to try to impose its values on Afghanistan.

The choices that NATO, the US and the UK now face in Afghanistan when dealing with the Taliban will involve unpleasant compromises, but it is necessary for Western governments to start deciding on their priorities and considering their options.

Recent developments in Afghanistan constitute a strategic gain for Pakistan, at least for the moment.

In more than 40 years of civil strife, war and instability in Afghanistan, it would not be wrong to say that its neighbours have often pursued their own strategic interests by manipulating the Afghan political field, even at the expense of peace in the country.

The Taliban said on Monday they had taken control of all of Afghanistan – including the Panjshir Valley, the historic Tajik bastion that neither the Soviets in the 1980s nor the Taliban in the 1990s were able to conquer. But resistance leader Ahmad Massoud – son of legendary anti-Taliban commander Ahmad Shah Massoud, known as the “lion of Panjshir” – says his forces are still holding out.

The National Resistance Front (NRF) leader has voiced his willingness for talks with the Taliban on an end to the fighting in Panjsher province.

As the Taliban stormed into his stronghold on Sunday, Ahmad Massoud positively responded to a call from religious scholars for a negotiated end to the conflict.

The Taliban movement has rejected a proposal for cessation of fighting in the embattled central province of Panjsher.

The offer was made by National (NRF) Resistance Front leader Ahmad Massoud on Sunday, hours after a call from top religious scholars.

The Taliban proclaimed on Monday the conquest of the province of Panjshir, the only one of the 34 regions that had not fallen into the hands of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (IEA).

“Panjshir has come under the full control of the Emirate… Some rebels were defeated and the rest fled,” Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid said.

On Monday, Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid said that a new Afghan interim government will be announced in the next few days, after confirming that the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (IEA) has taken over Panjshir, the only province that had remained out of Taliban’s control.

Regardless of the Taliban’s promises to keep foreign terrorist elements in check, its victory is already boosting elements within the jihadist movement and may once again spur foreign fighter traffic to Afghanistan.

The fall of Kabul raises a number of questions about the future of the jihadist movement, from the plans being pondered by global organizations like al-Qaeda (AQ) and the Islamic State (IS), to the reaction of local actors such as Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the Syrian group that views the Taliban as a model. Answering these questions can help policymakers better understand where the current situation stands and how the environment could change going forward.