China and the U.S. Exit from Afghanistan: Not a Zero-Sum Outcome

Beijing’s primary focus for now is to ensure stability on its western border and sustain its relationship with the new Taliban government in Kabul.
It has become fashionable to characterize recent events in Afghanistan as a loss for the United States and a win for China. This zero-sum interpretation framed in the narrow context of U.S.-China relations is too simplistic and off the mark. The reality is far more complex and nuanced. The end of the U.S. military presence in Afghanistan and the collapse of that country’s pro-Western government do not automatically translate into significant Chinese gains, nor do they trigger a swift Beijing swoop to fill the vacuum in Kabul left by Washington.