South East Asia

With the Taliban in power in Afghanistan, there’s a new enemy ascending.

The Islamic State group threatens to usher in another violent phase. Except this time the former insurgents, the Taliban, play the role of the state, now that the U.S. troops and their allied Afghan government are gone.

The Taliban promised the United States to keep the extremist group in check during successive rounds of peace talks. Under the 2020 U.S.-Taliban accord, the Taliban guaranteed that Afghanistan would not become a haven for terrorist groups threatening the U.S. or its allies.

On the banks of a mountain river outside Tajikistan’s capital, in a resort area teeming with hotels and dachas, stands a modern, two-story building flanked by towering trees and lattice fence panels.

The state-owned sanatorium near Dushanbe is usually reserved for high-ranking Tajik officials who flock there on weekends or for short vacations.

At least 100 worshippers have been killed or injured after a suicide bomber targeted a Shia mosque, in the northern Afghan city of Kunduz, according to news reports, during Friday prayers.

The UN chief condemned the “horrific” attack “in the strongest terms”, noting that it represents the third assault on a religious institution, in less than a week.

Afghanistan and Tajikistan share a 1,400-kilometer border. Recently, a war of words has erupted between Tajikistan’s President Emomali Rahmon and the Taliban government in Kabul. Rahmon censures the Taliban for the destabilization of Central Asia by the export of militant groups, while the Taliban leadership has accused Tajikistan’s government of interference.

It is difficult to speak of European ambitions for international crisis management against the backdrop of the images from Kabul over the past few weeks, which seem to tell a story of the failure of Western interventionist policies. But that discussion is urgently needed.

Afghanistan and Tajikistan share a 1,400-kilometer border. Recently, a war of words has erupted between Tajikistan’s President Emomali Rahmon and the Taliban government in Kabul. Rahmon censures the Taliban for the destabilization of Central Asia by the export of militant groups, while the Taliban leadership has accused Tajikistan’s government of interference.

While the Taliban may have wrested control of Afghanistan from the national government, the fighting and killing continue. Taliban forces raided an ISIS-K cell in Kabul and killed several of the terrorists, according to a Taliban spokesman.

The raid followed a deadly bombing at a Kabul mosque earlier on Sunday that killed five civilians. The Taliban claimed that the bombing was conducted by Islamic State terrorists. The Taliban and ISIS are enemies.

The Past

In April 2017, Ehsanullah Ehsan, a senior spokesperson of Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan [TTP] who subsequently joined its breakaway faction Jamaat-ul-Ahrar [JuA] supposedly, ‘surrendered’ to Pakistan army. It was a great moment for Rawalpindi and the then Director General [DG] of Pakistan army’s media wing Inter Services Public Relations [ISPR] Maj Gen Asif Ghafoor proudly announced how “The state is re-establishing its writ,” adding that “No element can challenge the state if the state has the will to weed out dangerous elements.” He also said that “There can be no bigger achievement for Pakistan than the fact that our biggest enemies are now realising the error of their ways and are turning themselves in,” a unquestionable assertion that even Rawalpindi’s staunchest detractors had to accept.

The Financial Times reported last week that numerous Afghan opposition leaders such as the famous Panjshir Valley commander Ahmad Massoud have fled to neighbouring Tajikistan and that they hope to use this safe haven as a base to fight the Taliban. But experts caution that the prospects are poor for any such attempt to continue the anti-Taliban resistance.

Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (IEA) forces raided a Daesh (ISIS-K) hideout north of Kabul on Friday, killing and arresting an unspecified number of militants, an IEA spokesman said.

Since the IEA’s takeover of Afghanistan in mid-August, there has been an increase in attacks by Daesh militants targeting IEA members.

The IEA and Daesh are enemies, and the attacks have raised the specter of a wider conflict between the long-time rivals.