South East Asia

Pakistan: TTP And Insidious Intent – Analysis

On October 20, 2021, two soldiers and two Police officers were killed when their vehicle was blown up by a roadside bomb near the Pakistan-Afghanistan border, in the Bajaur District of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP). The Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) claimed responsibility for the attack.

On September 30, 2021, two persons, including a Pakistan Army Captain and a TTP ‘commander’ Khawaza Din aka Sher Khan were killed during an Intelligence-Based Operation (IBO) in the Tank District of KP. According to the Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR), after receiving information about the presence of TTP terrorists in the area, the Security Forces (SFs) were conducting an operation.

An independent Kurdistan is the best bet to contain ISIS

While concerns of a terrorist resurgence in Afghanistan are front and center, we need to remember that there are thousands of ISIS fighters waging a low-level insurgency in Iraq and Syria. Containing that threat is critical, and doing so over the long term requires an international relations moonshot: creating an independent Kurdish state.

Based on past efforts to create an independent Kurdistan, it would seem unlikely and Iraq, Iran, Turkey, Syria and Russia would oppose such a move. However, the status quo is untenable, and no other solution likely would be as effective and durable in containing the terrorist threat in the region.

Lessons from the Collapse of Afghanistan’s Security Forces

Abstract: Six themes emerge from a close examination of the Afghan National Defense and Security Forces’ (ANDSF) collapse in 2021: the ANDSF collapse was months—if not years—in the making; the United States did not give the ANDSF everything they needed to be independently successful; the ANDSF did put up a fierce fight in many areas; the ANDSF were poorly served by Afghan political leaders; the ANDSF were poorly served by their own commanders; and the Taliban strategy overwhelmed and demoralized the ANDSF. From these themes, there are three key lessons: the ANDSF’s failure had many fathers; the U.S. model of security assistance requires reform; and greater emphasis on non-material factors (e.g., morale) is needed in future security force assessments.

Uzbekistan: Afghanistani Refugees At Risk Of Refoulement – OpEd

Association for Human Rights in Central Asia (AHRCA), International Partnership for Human Rights (IPHR) and the Norwegian Helsinki Committee (NHC) are concerned about the fates of a group of Afghan refugees comprised of journalists, human rights defenders, parliamentary deputies, musicians and artists and their families from Afghanistan who face the threat of forcible return from Uzbekistan to their native country, in violation of the principle of non-refoulement under international human rights law. The group of people, over 70 in total, are currently in Uzbekistan on temporary visas, which expire on 11 November 2021, after which they might be sent back to Afghanistan unless they succeed in legalizing their status in Uzbekistan or are resettled to a safe third country prior to this. The group of refugees fled to Uzbekistan in August 2021, as part of a wave of refugees who left Afghanistan for Uzbekistan after the Taliban came to power in their native country.

A Remote Corner of Afghanistan Offers a Peek Into the Future of the Country

In Kamdesh, Nuristan, where U.S. forces withdrew more than a decade ago, the American presence is a distant – and negative – memory for many locals.

In the dead of night on August 30, 2021, the last U.S. forces stepped off the tarmac of Kabul Airport onto a plane and left Afghanistan. It was almost 20 years after the first U.S. forces entered Afghanistan in the wake of the 9/11 attacks, to go after al-Qaida and topple the Emirate of the Taliban that sheltered them. In a twist that would have been unimaginable back in late 2001, by the time the U.S. left the Taliban again held sway in the capital Kabul and practically in the whole of Afghanistan – a feat that they did not even achieve at the prior height of their power in September 2001.

Putin Claims Islamic State Has 2,000 Fighters In Afghanistan

Russian President Vladimir Putin has said the Islamic State (IS) militant group has thousands of fighters in northern Afghanistan, as Moscow prepares to host international talks next week on the situation in the country.

“According to our intelligence, the number of (IS) members alone in northern Afghanistan is about 2,000 people,” Putin said on October 15 during a video address to the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) summit of ex-Soviet states.

Putin says Iraq, Syria militants entering Afghanistan

Russian President Vladimir Putin said Wednesday that battle-hardened militants from Iraq and Syria are “actively” entering Afghanistan.

“The situation in Afghanistan is not easy,” Putin said during a video conference with security service chiefs of ex-Soviet states, AFP reported.

“Militants from Iraq, Syria with experience in military operations are actively being drawn there,” he said.

EXPLAINER: Can the Taliban suppress the potent IS threat?

With the Taliban in power in Afghanistan, there’s a new enemy ascending.

The Islamic State group threatens to usher in another violent phase. Except this time the former insurgents, the Taliban, play the role of the state, now that the U.S. troops and their allied Afghan government are gone.

The Taliban promised the United States to keep the extremist group in check during successive rounds of peace talks. Under the 2020 U.S.-Taliban accord, the Taliban guaranteed that Afghanistan would not become a haven for terrorist groups threatening the U.S. or its allies.