South East Asia

The Taliban’s victory in Afghanistan is transforming the regional landscape and unnerving neighbouring countries. Central Asian countries face migration flows, humanitarian challenges and political uncertainty. The post-American Afghanistan also provides Moscow and Beijing, as well several other regional powers like Tehran and Islamabad, with opportunities to enhance regional engagement as the world moves towards multipolarity.

China and Russia, and regional powers, are eager to increase their influence in Central Asia, though with divergent goals. No single power is capable of taking on the security role the United States played.

In an interview aired in the US in June 2021, Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan announced that Pakistan will deny US use of its territory for “over-the-horizon” surveillance of possible terrorist activity in Afghanistan. Now, there are negotiations for the US to use Pakistan’s airspace for military operations in Afghanistan, but is this really an ally on which the United States can count?

The Imran Khan government’s secret deal with the banned group will get the latter off the streets but at a price.

The government of Pakistan has signed yet another agreement with the Tehreek-e-Labbaik Pakistan (TLP) after a two- week-long protest by the group, which killed scores of policemen and caused massive economic losses.

It has refused to divulge details of the deal done with the proscribed group. One of the reasons for the government not making public the agreement it signed with the TLP is criticism and pressure it could draw internationally.

Many of Afghanistan’s US-trained spies and military personnel have joined the Daesh terrorist group after being abandoned by the United States, a new report has revealed.

Citing Taliban leaders and former Afghan security officials, The Wall Street Journal reported that several members of the former Afghan government’s intelligence and military apparatus joined Daesh, following the hasty withdrawal of the US-led coalition troops from the country in August.

U.S. officials have confirmed that a newly formed armed group resisting Taliban rule in Afghanistan has registered with the Justice Department to carry out political lobbying in the United States.

The confirmation came in response to claims by the anti-Taliban National Resistance Front (NRF) that its international office has “received authorization to officially open” in America.

At another level, for two dissimilar reasons, Afghanistan and AUKUS will reshape the strategic landscape of Asia and the US’s Indo-Pacific.

First, the US’s policy towards Afghanistan and South, South-west and Central Asia has been poorly conceived. Unable to influence the hard-line Taliban regime, Washington now suddenly hopes that regional powers, including India, Russia, Turkey and Afghanistan’s neighbours – Pakistan, Iran, China, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan – will sort out the strategic mess created by its decision to quit Afghanistan. All these countries fear that Afghanistan-based terrorists will destabilise their territories and regional backyards.

When Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States formed the AUKUS on 15 September 2021, many countries in the world have raised serious concerns that this trilateral arrangement can further heighten existing security tensions in the Indo-Pacific because of AUKUS’ expressed intention to assertively counter China’s growing political power in the region. Like the QUAD or the Quadrilateral Agreement of US, Australia, India and Japan, AUKUS can be viewed as another containment approach by Western powers and their allies in the Indo-Pacific to strategically gang-up against China in their attempt to prevent Beijing from expanding its political influence in Asia and beyond.