South East Asia

The war in Ukraine has become a turning point for developing countries, many of whom could give up the gains made in economic growth and reduction in poverty over the past three decades.

A growing number of developing nations are vulnerable to political instability caused by debt crises, as is shown by Sri Lanka’s current plight. US and Western leadership in reforming the international financial system is needed to avoid the developing world becoming more dependent on China.

How Beijing’s Economic Missteps and Support for Russia Soured European Leaders

In April and May, as Russia’s war in Ukraine entered its third month, China sent a special envoy to meet with officials in eight central and eastern European countries. The timing was not coincidental: in the two months since Russia had launched its invasion, China’s standing in Europe had sunk to new lows.

The war in Ukraine has become a turning point for developing countries, many of whom could give up the gains made in economic growth and reduction in poverty over the past three decades.

A growing number of developing nations are vulnerable to political instability caused by debt crises, as is shown by Sri Lanka’s current plight. US and Western leadership in reforming the international financial system is needed to avoid the developing world becoming more dependent on China.

Ukraine’s successes in resisting and even turning back an invasion by a numerically superior Russian force has raised expectations in East Asia that smaller nations in the region could conceivably fend off an attack from a large military like China’s. Taiwan, of course, has long struggled with executing such a defense strategy, but since its strategic considerations are in many ways unique, other countries nominally threatened by China may not be able to draw as many lessons from Taipei’s experience. Ukraine’s performance in its war against Russia, on the other hand, may look to them like a more relevant model—for better or worse.

“We have no competing fighting chance against China in 15 to 20 years. Right now, it’s already a done deal; it is already over in my opinion.” — Nicolas Chaillan, former first Chief Software Officer for the Air Force, who resigned in protest over the Pentagon’s slow pace of technological development, citing China’s fast advancements in artificial intelligence, machine learning, and general capabilities in cybersecurity, Financial Times, October 10, 2021

The second in-person summit of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, Quad, in Japan managed to generate a lot of buzz. While the global media covered it in its usual breathless manner, China also ensured that the event retained its edge as its warplanes joined the Russians to approach Japanese airspace. It was a calibrated show of force to make a point when Tokyo was hosting leaders from the United States (US), Australia, and India. Chinese and Russian fighter jets carrying out joint flights over the Sea of Japan and the East China Sea would have made headlines in any case, but the fact that Beijing and Moscow decided to make this a show of force at a time when the leaders of Quad were meeting was a determined effort to make their presence felt.