South East Asia

On July 6, law enforcement in Germany and the Netherlands arrested nine Central Asians on terrorism-related charges. In Germany, five Tajik nationals, one Kyrgyz citizen, and one Turkmenistani citizen were arrested in the Federal State of North Rhine-Westphalia for allegedly creating and participating in a local terrorist organization and supporting Islamic State (IS). In the Netherlands, a married couple—a Tajik husband and Kyrgyz wife—were also arrested in Eindhoven and Breda. Both are suspected of plotting terrorist attacks, with the husband also suspected of IS membership (Kaktus Media, July 6).

Joshua Keating, a foreign policy analyst, staff writer, and author of the World blog at Slate, and a former writer and editor at Foreign Policy magazine in an article updated on January 2022 wrote that “war over Taiwan would likely involve the largest and most complex amphibious invasion ever mounted. Were the conflict to drag on, it might well evolve into a building-to-building, mountaintop-to-mountaintop ground war in one of the most densely populated and economically advanced countries on Earth. And that’s just in Taiwan itself”.

Avec le recul, on peut considérer que l’occupation de l’Afghanistan par les armées des USA/OTAN n’étaient rien d’autre qu’une nouvelle grande guerre de l’opium comme celles menées contre la Chine au 19ème siècle, ou celles de l’apprès Deuxième Guerre mondiale menées par la France dans le Triangle d’Or en Indochine, reprises plus tard par la CIA au Vietnam et au Laos. Les mêmes guerres, habillées différemment, et nous n’y voyons que du feu, même en la regardant se dérouler sous nos yeux.

China’s “Belt and Road Initiative”, or as it is called in China, “One Belt, One Road”, is much better known under the name “New Silk Road”. It’s one of the most ambitious infrastructure projects of all time.

The initiative was launched in 2013 by Chinese President Xi Jinping, and includes a large set of development and investment projects aimed at connecting Asia and Europe through all forms of transport infrastructure. Over the course of a decade, the initiative spread to Africa, Oceania and Latin America, significantly strengthening the global economic and political influence of the People’s Republic of China.

The 32nd report of the Analytical Support and Sanctions Monitoring Team of the 1267 ISIL (Da’esh) and Al-Qaeda Sanctions Committee of the UN Security Council, released this week, noted that “one Member State assessed that Al-Qaeda is shaping AQIS (Al-Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent).

It is generally recognized that any discussion on South Asia without reference to India would be putting the cart before the horse.

In the article Why France and India Are Natural Partners, Antonia Collabasanu (July 20 2034-Geopolitical Futures) has emphasized the importance of Franco-Indian collaboration as a preeminent feature of Indian politico-economic interest, despite India’s isolationist policy that it has been following since the adoption of non-alignment as the country’s foreign policy anchor ever since independence from British domination in 1948. Antonio Collabasanu writes in her article that France is a natural strategic ally to India. India’s relative isolation from the rest of the world – with no imposed borders, a large and dense population, and a central government having no choice but to deal with a broad subcontinent – has resulted in a country formed of shifting systems that continuously challenge central authority. This divided landscape has historically made it easier for foreign powers, most notably the British, to conquer it. India’s birth as a modern state in the early 1950s was New Delhi’s first lesson in how shifting economics may alter political realities. Traditionally, Indian security threats have come either from the Afghanistan-Pakistan border or from the sea.

Introduction
The agreement signed between the United States and the Taliban on February 29, 2020 aimed to withdraw most U.S. troops from Afghanistan by the end of 2021. This withdrawal would result in certain factions of the Taliban gaining a larger role in Afghan politics, raising concerns for India. Indian assets in Afghanistan have been targeted by the Haqqani group, a major Taliban faction, and India’s investments in the country were protected by the presence of U.S.-led troops and the stability they brought.

Abstract: Despite dominating the headlines for almost a decade, surprisingly little is known about the Islamic State’s internal organization. After the declaration of the caliphate in June 2014, the organization’s center of gravity rested in the offices of the caliph and the spokesman and the Delegated Committee. Yet, with the deaths of successive caliphs, the territorial demise in the Levant, and the growing importance of its external provinces, the General Directorate of Provinces has emerged as the organization’s most decisive body. This is the first exhaustive account of the Islamic State’s most important, yet little understood, institution.