A number of flashpoints around the globe could spiral from minor border skirmishes into full-blown conflagrations that could drag their broader regions into conflict.
Given the tectonic shifts in the international system and renewed focus on great power competition, the prospects of inter-state warfare are now receiving more scrutiny.
General Michael Kurilla, head of United States Central Command (CENTCOM), has suggested that at its current trajectory, Islamic State Khorasan (ISK) would be able to conduct external operations within approximately six months.
Since the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan in August 2021, counterterrorism analysts have warned about the growing threat of ISK, especially in light of the U.S. troop withdrawal and limited human intelligence assets in areas where ISK and other terrorist groups operate.
The Taliban have enabled some terrorist groups and reined in others, elevating longstanding concerns for U.S. policy.
Two years into Taliban rule, the question of whether Afghanistan would once again become a safe haven for international terrorism remains alive. Longstanding fears were affirmed a little over a year ago, when the U.S. government located al-Qaeda leader Aimen al-Zawahiri in Kabul, Afghanistan, before killing him in a drone strike. The fact that the Taliban would bring Zawahiri back to Kabul, despite repeated assurances to U.S. negotiators both before and after the Doha agreement that they had distanced themselves from al-Qaeda, significantly elevated concerns.
Africa’s renaissance is already underway through partnerships with Eurasian powers Russia and China, whose significant contributions are already visible in security, economic, and institutional sectors throughout the continent.
In Africa, injustice looms large, marked by poverty, warfare, and famine. Despite post-WWII political gains, economic independence, a vital component of true freedom as envisioned by Pan African leaders like Kwame Nkrumah, Patrice Lumumba, and Haile Selassie, remains elusive.
Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvili’s recent visit to China and his meeting with President Xi Jinping heralded the establishment of a strategic partnership between China and Georgia. Garibashvili called his visit historic. Moreover, he expressed Tbilisi’s willingness to deepen its relationship with Beijing and support all the global projects—the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Global Civilizational Initiative, Global Development Initiative, and the Global Security Initiative—China is invested in to reshape international rules and norms and revise the world order.
Pakistan’s 76th Independence Day, on Aug. 14, was marked by an undercurrent of challenges. The 16-month rule of the 13-party Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) coalition government concluded, making way for a new technocratic caretaker administration tasked with overseeing upcoming general elections. However, this power transition is not as straightforward as it seems. The appointment of the new caretaker government has created uncertainty, raising doubts about whether Pakistan will smoothly transition to another democratic government or if the caretaker setup will exceed its constitutional mandate.
The Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP) is considered a threat to Afghan Taliban and their governance in Afghanistan. ISKP is an affiliate of the Islamic State (ISIS) that primarily operates in the Afghanistan-Pakistan region. Its presence and activities posed several challenges to Afghan Taliban. The Afghan Taliban and ISKP have different ideological and strategic goals. While the Taliban seeks to establish an Islamic Emirate in Afghanistan and has primarily focused on Afghanistan, ISKP aims to establish a global caliphate and has a more expansionist agenda. This ideological difference led to conflicts and competition for influence in the region.
Afghanistan remains in the grip of multiple crises, with its humanitarian situation worsening by the day. A recent report by the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) reveals the alarming scale of the crisis, with over 70 percent of the Afghan population—approximately 29.2 million people—in dire need of humanitarian assistance.
There has been a noticeable rift between the Tekhrek e Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and the Islamic Emirate Afghanistan (IEA) for quite some time, and the causes are not political but ideological.
The IEA has fought against external interference, whereas the TTP, influenced by al-Qaeda, adheres to Takfiri ideology and pursues expansionist objectives. This fundamental ideological difference has resulted in the TTP and Islamic State of Khurasan Province (ISKP) being perceived as natural allies, as they share an identical point of view. However, it should be noted that both factions’ activities have only contributed to increased bloodshed and instability in the region.
The American filmmaker Woody Allen said, ““Eighty percent of success is showing up.” If he is correct, America is not succeeding in Central Asia.
But the rulers of Russia, Vladimir Putin, and China, Xi Jinping, leave nothing to chance: Xj has visited every one of the republics and has been to Kazakhstan four times and Uzbekistan three times; Putin has visited Kazakhstan twenty-seven times (the countries share a 7,644-kilometre border), and has been to Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan at least a dozen times each.