Reflectii

On 15 August, the Taliban capped their drive for power in Afghanistan by taking Kabul, the country’s capital, for the first time since they ruled most of the country from 1996 to 2001. With the previous government’s collapse, the group is now the de facto power throughout the country and is in the process of forming a new government and revamped state system. Questions are swirling about how they will govern, such as whether they will attempt to exercise a monopoly on power or give some roles to other political forces and whether they will try to reimpose the harsh social restrictions, including on women, that they enforced in the late 1990s. As yet, there are no firm answers.

The modern era is increasingly defined by a pandemic of conspiracy and misinformation. It is unsurprising that this misinformation coincides with a literal pandemic, when so little is still known about an evolving killer virus with mutating variants, and when humanity doesn’t know the full story of Covid-19’s origin. In this highly volatile environment, various narratives have emerged surrounding the pandemic, with terms like “lab leak,” “gain-of-function,” and even “bioweapon” entering the lexicon as related to Covid-19.

Nepārdomātā un ar sabiedrotajiem slikti saskaņotā vai daudzos gadījumos pat vispār nesaskaņotā ASV bruņoto spēku izvešana no Afganistānas ir izraisījusi plašu rezonansi arī Eiropas valstīs, kuru varas iestādēm šis solis rada ne mazākas, bet varbūt pat lielākas problēmas nekā pašām ASV.

L’Afghanistan tornato nelle mani dei talebani apre scenari inediti su cinque fronti cruciali per la sicurezza globale: la faida jihadista per il controllo di Kabul; il rafforzamento di Qatar, Pakistan e Turchia nel mondo musulmano; la necessità per l’America di Biden di riguadagnare in fretta prestigio ed autorità; l’opportunità per Cina e Russia di modificare a proprio favore gli equilibri di potere in Asia; l’urgenza per l’Europa di fronteggiare profughi e terrorismo, aumentando il proprio profilo strategico.

Ситуація в столиці Афганістану загострилася після вибухів, скоєних 26 серпня бойовиками терористичної організації «Ісламська держава» поруч з аеропортом Кабула.

Розмова з аналітиком Інституту майбутнього Ілією Кусою.

What is the global refugee crisis?

There are now 82 million forcibly displaced people around the world—more than at any time in modern history. These are people who have fled extreme dangers, whether to escape relentless bombing, an invading army, gang violence, or other life-threatening circumstances.

Those who have been uprooted from their homes often face further struggles on their journey to find safety, including lack of access to essential needs like clean water, food, shelter, personal security, and health care.

Abstract

Although a significant body of literature in the field of International Relations has emerged over the past decade proclaiming the coming end of American primacy – whether due to American decline, the rise of China and other emerging powers, or a combination of both – this article argues that when considered objectively, the United States’ primacy and position as the arbiter of the international order is safe for the time being. Despite apparent cracks in the so called liberal international order, especially since the election of Donald Trump in late 2016, this article argues that due to the United States’ privileged financial position, the liberal international order remains largely resolute and continues to privilege the United States over the rest. However, this article argues that the growth of cryptocurrencies potentially undermines American primacy because it threatens the privileged position of the US dollar as the unchallenged global reserve currency. Independent cryptocurrencies, due to their privacy and decentralization, operate beyond the scope and power of the state, giving them the potential to be counter-hegemonic. Furthermore, potential revisionist states – especially China or Russia – may try and weaponize cryptocurrencies to challenge the United States. While this article acknowledges the volatility of independent cryptocurrencies and the inherent limitations of state-backed ones, it is argued that, regardless, the technological revolution they are precipitating is disruptive and should eventually undermine and change the international financial system. This, in turn, could hasten the decline of the United States from its current prime position and arbiter of the international order.

The liberal international order (LIO) has long been playing a central role in current analyses of and debates over U.S. foreign policy. Even though there are numbers of different attributions and characterizations, the LIO comprises first several institutions that has been created by the US after the second World War. Those institutions include security alliances in Europe (NATO) and Asia (the US bilateral hub and spoke system), Bretton Woods institutions and the United Nations (Glaser 2019). LIO comprises several normative assets such as openness, free-trade, democracy promotion, freedom, respect for human rights as well. Therefore, LIO is generally defined as an international system in which norms, rules, obligations and rights are broadly settled under institutional procedures and they are followed by the community of nations (Ikenberry 2001, p.36). Thus, what LIO is an aggregation of these rules and institutions, many of which Western (American) in their origin.

Apesar de, nos últimos meses, a questão dos refugiados não ter estado em foco nas agendas mediáticas, há migrantes que continuam a arriscar a vida no Mediterrâneo à procura de paz.