Europe: Demography Governs Democracy

There is a replacement of civilization and the media is not even covering it.

“By 2050, 50 percent of the French population will be mixed.” — Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Radio Classique, May 17, 2021.

“The mayor of Grenoble adopts the arguments and rhetorical formulas of the Muslim Brotherhood: talking about freedom to impose sexism”. — Céline Pina, Le Figaro, May 4, 2022.

Preventing Catastrophic Bioterrorism: Guarding Against Exploitation of the Life Sciences and Biotechnology

Abstract: Bioscience and biotechnology advances offer extraordinary promise, but they are also accompanied by emerging biological risks—specifically the potential for catastrophic accidents or deliberate misuse by malicious actors seeking to cause harm. These risks include the possibility that non-state actors could exploit the legitimate global bioscience research and development enterprise to gain the knowledge and materials to develop and disseminate a biological weapon. We must take action to safeguard the life sciences to prevent biotechnology catastrophe, in addition to bolstering law enforcement and intelligence capabilities to more effectively anticipate and prevent bioterrorism and other biological threats.

Biology’s Tectonic Shifts and Novel Risks

Abstract: Driven by digital technologies and commercial processes, the field of biology has fundamentally evolved, with widespread implications for war and peace. Biology’s trajectory resembles the advancement of computer software and hardware during the 20th century, making the tools to manipulate life open and accessible. Today, it is easy to read (DNA sequencing), write (DNA synthesizing), alter (gene editing), and share (via the internet) genetic code. Addressing biosecurity requires expertise in computer science, data analysis, and artificial intelligence. Bioterrorism with known agents remains a concern, but the greater threat will be novel risks from trained insiders, unethical tinkerers, and state-sponsored proxies.

Sweden and Finland’s NATO Bids Hit a Roadblock Named Erdogan

As of last week, NATO seemed well on its way to expanding, when Finland and Sweden formally submitted their applications for membership. When they officially join, becoming the 31st and 32nd member of the alliance, it could potentially mark the fastest accession process in the alliance’s history. This is reflective of the sudden about-face in the two countries’ foreign policies in the months since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Both went quickly from countries content with a posture of non-alignment marked by occasional cooperation with NATO, to expressing increasing support for the alliance, to applying for full membership.

It’s Not Just The USA: The Economic Instability Is Global

The actions of the authorities in developed countries, essentially an extension of the Keynesian economic policy discourse, have brought the economies into disrepute. These actions consist of immense stimulus and virtually unfunded government indexation of voter income in the face of expected impoverishment amid COVID, lockdowns, and other global problems.

Making Peace with the Paris Agreement

Peace and conflict need to be considered in the climate change agenda.

The Paris Agreement was nothing less than a landmark agreement. Legally binding, adopted by 196 parties to the convention, it has inspired hope and ambition to get to net-zero emissions and limit global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. The Paris Agreement does not, however, mention conflict or fragility, neither peace nor security, even once – neither did the Kyoto Protocol before it, nor does the Sendai Framework directly address any of these issues either.

Ukraine: The Daily Intelligence Event

While Defence Intelligence’s daily briefings have garnered praise, the emphasis has been on publicity over analytical quality.

In the world of secret intelligence, at least in the UK, such is the mystique surrounding the various agencies that a rare public speech by ‘C’ or the head of GCHQ is treated as a ‘must watch’ event and the words of the intelligence chiefs are assumed to hold great significance. Traditionally, intelligence released into the public domain has tended to be infrequent, indirectly attributed or deliberately obscured.

A UK Joint Methodology for Assuring Theatre Access

This Whitehall Report outlines a joint methodology for the targeting of A2/AD systems.

The British military is expeditionary and seeks to confront adversaries abroad before they pose a threat at home. Theatre entry is therefore a precondition for the utility of the British military. Adversaries are fielding increasingly capable and integrated anti-air and anti-ship complexes that threaten the viability of theatre entry. These complexes differ from older systems in their level of integration, redundancy and consequent resilience. To assure the future relevance of the UK’s military instrument, it is necessary to have a methodology for breaking through these systems.

Truth Decay in Europe

Exploring the role of facts and analysis in European public life

The uncertainties of the COVID-19 pandemic have highlighted the need for accurate information to support sound decisions. However, having access to more information can make it harder for people to decide what to believe or not believe.