Orientul Mijlociu

Ten years ago, the terrorist group known as ISIS stunned the world when it seized wide swaths of territory in Iraq and Syria and declared its own caliphate.

By the time territory from that self-proclaimed caliphate was fully retaken in 2019, ISIS had terrorized civilian populations in Iraq and Syria, carried out a genocidal campaign against the Yazidi religious minority, broadcast the beheadings of journalists and aid workers, and staged deadly terror attacks in Paris, Nice, Brussels, Manchester, Turkey and beyond.

Israel has no military options that could achieve a better result than a negotiated solution or a return to the status quo.

As tensions have risen in the border area between Lebanon and Israel, many observers are predicting that Hezbollah and the Israeli military will soon be at war. On June 26, several governments began advising their citizens to leave Lebanon. Certainly, there is a high likelihood that some escalation will happen in the coming weeks, but for now we’re still not in the final stages of the build-up to a Lebanese-Israeli apocalypse.

There seems to be a hidden hand that pushes the players, and not anyone you would think of at first.

Over the last few months, we are witnessing a long line of assassinations of mainly top operatives, allegedly performed by Israeli units, acting in Lebanon, Syria and Iran. This should not boggle our minds, nor should we doubt the incentive. But something has changed, not in motivation and not in resolve, but in essence. The front page is clear and says as follows: Iran has masterminded the Attack on Israel and now it’s payback time. But Iran has been a nemesis for decades, and the list of targets makes no real sense, at least not at first.

The essentials

For decades, the border crossings between Lebanon and Syria have served as a life-line for the Lebanese. Over the last forty years, this has been the supply route for Hezbollah. This organization controls the crossings completely and smuggles through them, for example:

The Jordanian Public Security Directorate announced on June 22 that security forces are handling an investigative case in the South Marka area of the capital, Amman, according to the official Jordanian News Agency. Authorities stated that initial investigations indicated several individuals had been storing significant quantities of explosive materials inside a house.

Operating as the Iranian arm of the regime forces, the Fourth Division maintains its own security apparatus, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights says.

Maher al-Assad, commander of the Fourth Division and brother of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, has issued a directive imposing restrictions on any security or military entity’s ability to arrest members of the Fourth Division, except under official missions sanctioned by the division’s security office or its military police company.

The SDF has not issued a statement regarding the events.

Groups of the National Defense militia (auxiliary forces of the Syrian regime) launched attacks on military positions held by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) along the Euphrates River in Deir-ez-Zor’s western and eastern countryside. The SDF retaliated against the sources of fire.

Hezbollah has responded to recent Israeli threats by saying it will wage war without ‘limits’ if it continues to escalate military assaults on Lebanon.

Hezbollah on Saturday threatened to wage war with “no limit, rules and restraint” in response to any escalation of military activity by Israel on the Lebanese group.

A drastic escalation of tensions between Israel and the Hezbollah militia in Lebanon over the past week has brought the prospect of an expansion of war across the Middle East ever closer. Following Israel’s assassination of a senior Hezbollah commander and a retaliatory rocket barrage fired on northern Israel, The Israel Defence Forces (IDF) released a statement Tuesday declaring that operational plans for a war in Lebanon have been approved.

As Jonathan Tobin writes at Commentary:

The Khamenei Palestine book is important not in and of itself but because the regime’s obsession with Israel is a key to its foreign policy. Iran constitutes a grave threat to Neighboring Arab countries that are at least as angry about the president’s embrace of Tehran as the Israelis since their nuclear status would undermine their security. But as much as Iran is focused on regional hegemony in which Sunni states would be brought to heel, as Khamenei’s Palestine illustrates, it is the fixation on Israel and Zionism that really animates their expansionism and aid for terror groups.