TRAC INSIGHT: Islamic State Exploits Vulnerabilities, Sows Chaos Across Iraq – 5 May 2020

Weapons Islamic State seized from a police barracks near Rutbah, west Anbar on 5 April 2020.

As Iraq grapples with the Coronavirus/COVID-19 pandemic and longstanding economic difficulties, (compounded by record-low oil prices) Islamic State’s operations continue with increasing lethality. TRAC Senior Analyst, Daniel Lebowitz has tracked Spring Islamic State activity since before the beginning of Ramadan 2020. His report reveals that IS ambushes, IEDs, and assassinations have escalated in Diyala, Kirkuk, Anbar, Dijah, and Salahuddin, Iraq. The violence places more pressure on the Iraqi government that is facing increasing public resentment coupled with the US withdrawal from key military bases, creating the perfect climate for a repeat of last season’s Hot Summer in the country’s rural areas. The more chaos and bloodshed caused, the more legitimate the new Islamic State leader appears.

The Lebanese Hizbullah Financing Threat in Europe

Hizbullah gets the majority of its funding and weapons from Iran, but the group also runs parallel independent fundraising and arms procurement efforts around the world, including in Europe, to complement its state sponsorship from Iran. These independent fundraising and procurement operations have become more pronounced over time, especially in the wake of wars that depleted weapons stockpiles and sanctions and declining oil prices which have impacted Iranian funding levels.

The International Order After COVID-19

At first blush, the coronavirus pandemic seems likely to corroborate the argument for deeper international cooperation to confront shared global challenges. But crises tend to intensify and accelerate preexisting trends – in this case, the rise of anti-globalist nativism.

Turkey’s Dangerous New Exports: Pan-Islamist, Neo-Ottoman Visions and Regional Instability

There is certainly no shortage of writings on Turkey today regarding that country’s “drift” away from its Western orientation. Some who espouse this argument frame the consequences in terms of Turkey’s increased ties to China.[1] While Turkey itself has launched an “Asia Anew” policy,[2] the outsized focus on this and other alleged signs of Turkey’s “drift from the West” distracts from the very palpable effects of its adventurism in the Middle East, North Africa, and Eastern Mediterranean. Turkey’s increasingly reckless foreign policy is on full display — from weaponizing refugees to extort the European Union to exporting mercenary Jihadist fighters to Libya.[3] These are hardly the actions of a responsible regional power, much less a key member of the NATO alliance.

Will Damascus or HTS be the first to break the ceasefire in Idlib?

On Wednesday, Turkish and Russian forces conducted their fourth joint patrol of the Latakia-Aleppo international “M4” highway, following a confrontation two days earlier which saw Turkish military police shoot tear gas at crowds of Syrian civilians and fighters who gathered to protest the patrols in what they called a “sit-in for dignity.”

COVID-19, the oil price war, and the remaking of the Middle East

The Middle East is facing an unexpected turning point. The region will not look the same after COVID-19 as it did before it. Prior to the outbreak, the Middle East had managed to normalize the geostrategic implications of the Arab Spring. Tunisia transitioned to a fully functioning democracy, Egypt ended up with a strongman, Syria became a catastrophe, Jordan and Morocco enacted some reforms, while Algeria and Sudan are still struggling with transitions and Lebanon stands on the brink of economic collapse.