Remaining and Expanding: The Recovery of Islamic State Operations in Iraq in 2019-2020

Abstract: The Islamic State has recovered from its territorial defeats since 2017 to mount a strong and sustained resurgence as an insurgent force inside Iraq. A new analysis of attack metrics from the past 18 months paints a picture of an Islamic State insurgency that has regained its balance, spread out across many more areas, and reclaimed significant tactical proficiency. Now operating at the same levels it achieved in 2012, a number of factors suggest that the Islamic State could further ramp up its rural insurgency in 2020 and 2021. An input of experienced cadres from Syria, a downturn in Iraqi and coalition effectiveness, and now the disruption of a combined COVID and economic crisis will likely all feed into an escalating campaign of attrition against the Iraqi state, military, and tribes.

Turkey: Erdogan’s “Leftovers of the Sword”

“Leftover of the sword” (kılıç artığı in Turkish) is a commonly used insult in Turkey that often refers to the survivors of the Christian massacres that mainly targeted Armenians, Greeks and Assyrians in the Ottoman Empire and its successor, Turkey.

TRAC INSIGHT: Islamic State Exploits Vulnerabilities, Sows Chaos Across Iraq – 5 May 2020

Weapons Islamic State seized from a police barracks near Rutbah, west Anbar on 5 April 2020.

As Iraq grapples with the Coronavirus/COVID-19 pandemic and longstanding economic difficulties, (compounded by record-low oil prices) Islamic State’s operations continue with increasing lethality. TRAC Senior Analyst, Daniel Lebowitz has tracked Spring Islamic State activity since before the beginning of Ramadan 2020. His report reveals that IS ambushes, IEDs, and assassinations have escalated in Diyala, Kirkuk, Anbar, Dijah, and Salahuddin, Iraq. The violence places more pressure on the Iraqi government that is facing increasing public resentment coupled with the US withdrawal from key military bases, creating the perfect climate for a repeat of last season’s Hot Summer in the country’s rural areas. The more chaos and bloodshed caused, the more legitimate the new Islamic State leader appears.

The Lebanese Hizbullah Financing Threat in Europe

Hizbullah gets the majority of its funding and weapons from Iran, but the group also runs parallel independent fundraising and arms procurement efforts around the world, including in Europe, to complement its state sponsorship from Iran. These independent fundraising and procurement operations have become more pronounced over time, especially in the wake of wars that depleted weapons stockpiles and sanctions and declining oil prices which have impacted Iranian funding levels.