Orientul Mijlociu

Ce discours dérangé que Bibi Netanyahou a prononcé devant une session conjointe du Congrès le mois dernier : Je n’arrive pas à le chasser de mon esprit. Cela n’a rien changé – ni le Premier ministre israélien ni ses hôtes ne semblent vouloir ou avoir l’intention de changer quoi que ce soit dans les relations américano-israéliennes. Ainsi, il n’y a pas grand-chose à dire sur cette heure bizarre que le premier terroriste du monde – oui, pensez-y et dites-moi que je me trompe – a passée à la tribune, sous la rotonde du Capitole. Mais le discours a clarifié certaines choses, et puis il a soulevé une question importante. Voyons ce qu’il en est.

For many years now, Hezbollah has served as a major instrument of Iran to take over Lebanon, not only as a territory but as a sovereign state. Many Western countries would like to avoid that and invest in the former “Pearl of the Middle East”, led by France. These efforts are futile in view of the Iranian circumvention apparatus, who’s main mechanism is allocated in the border crossings between Syria and Lebanon. No matter how much pressure is put on a state level, Hezbollah will survive and even prosper, as long as one does not put an end to Hezbollah’s control over these main smuggling routes.

Bottom Line Up Front

• Iran and its allies in the “Axis of Resistance” likely perceive recent Israeli attacks as an escalation designed to provoke a broader regional confrontation on Israel’s terms.
• Iran is likely to launch missiles and armed drones at Israel, aiming to cause extensive damage, in contrast to its April barrage that was mostly intercepted.
• Iran’s most potent partner, Lebanese Hezbollah, is likely to join any attack in force as a response not only to the Haniyeh killing but also to retaliate for Israel’s Beirut strike last week that killed a top commander, Fuad Shukr.
• U.S. officials are building up forces in the region to signal to Iran that a major attack on Israel risks bringing Iran into an unwanted conflict with the United States, something Tehran also hopes to avoid.

Today’s news round on Syria covers critical developments shaping the region’s complex landscape. The Pentagon is reinvestigating claims of civilian casualties during its 2019 raid targeting ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, prompted by new accounts and congressional pressure. In eastern Syria, pro-government fighters, backed by Iran, launched attacks on U.S.-supported positions, resulting in fatalities and escalating tensions in Deir el-Zour. Meanwhile, the Atlantic Council’s report by JP Reppeto examines the possibility of delinking northeast Syria from the PKK, a significant point of contention between the U.S. and Turkey, as both nations seek to address the deep-rooted PKK influence while maintaining regional stability and combating ISIS.

Today’s news round on Syria highlights the ongoing and escalating violence within the region. Syrian officials issued a stern warning to Israel over potential escalations following a deadly strike in Majdal Shams, resulting in the deaths of a dozen children and teenagers. Additionally, a truck bomb in Azaz killed 10 people at a rebel checkpoint, exacerbating the conflict between Kurdish-led SDF and Turkish-backed rebels. In Deir ez-Zor, fierce clashes between Syrian government forces and the SDF resulted in multiple casualties. Meanwhile, the Syrian National Party and tribal leaders in Hasakah reiterated their support for the SDF, denouncing external forces attempting to destabilize the region.

The recent attacks by “Tribal and Clan” forces on areas controlled by the SDF have reignited the debate about the nature and affiliations of these forces. Critics of the Autonomous Administration view these groups as Arab forces striving to liberate their territories from PKK control, denying any ties to Iran or the Syrian regime. Conversely, supporters of the Autonomous Administration argue that these forces are an Iranian initiative aimed at destabilizing the region.

• During the past week, Hezbollah claimed responsibility for 43 attacks on military and civilian targets in northern Israel, including communities attacked for the first time since the beginning of the war. A civilian was killed; an officer and an IDF soldier were injured.
• Israeli Air Force aircraft attacked Hezbollah targets and operatives in south Lebanon and the Lebanon Valley. Hezbollah announced the death of eight operatives, including its senior military commander, Fuad Shukr, who was killed in an airstrike on the southern quarter of Beirut.
• Given the killing of Fuad Shukr, Hezbollah has become concerned Israel infiltrated its ranks and the organization has begun arrests and investigations.
• Hezbollah continued making preparations to retaliate against Israel for Fuad Shukr’s death. “Sources” said that the organization would attack “a sensitive strategic area.” Western and Arab countries called on their citizens to leave Lebanon and airlines suspended or reduced their flights to and from Beirut.
• Hezbollah summed up 300 days of fighting and claimed responsibility for 2,500 attacks on Israel.
• The prime minister of Lebanon’s interim government accused Israel of violating Lebanese sovereignty. The Lebanese foreign ministry filed a complaint against Israel with the UN Security Council, claiming cyber-attacks.
• Syria: Attacks on a Hezbollah-controlled airport near Homs and a truck convoy on the Syria-Lebanon border were attributed to Israel. According to reports, Hezbollah opened a new UAV factory in the Homs region. According to assessments, Syria will directly join the conflict against Israel only if Hezbollah is broadly attacked.

The surprising and evolving intersections between the Jewish state and Islamic institutions.

Introduction

The term “Israeli Islam” may sound like an oxymoron, but Islam is present in Israeli society—and inside the Israeli state. Just under one-fifth of Israelis are registered by the state as Muslims; Muhammad has been the most common name for Israeli babies for years. And a series of state structures oversees, supports, administers, monitors, and polices Islamic practices and institutions in the country.

This policy is self-serving and justified on false pretexts, but it’s Iran’s sovereign right to promulgate in advance of what its leadership regards as their national interests.

The Iranian Supreme Leader tweeted last week that “The Islamic Republic of Iran believes the #Zangezur corridor is to the detriment of Armenia, and we reaffirm our steadfast position on this matter.” This followed his meeting with Armenian Prime Minister Pashinyan on Tuesday, who was in Tehran to attend President Pezeshkian’s inauguration, as well as recent reports that those two countries secretly signed a $500 million arms deal earlier this year for drones and air defenses.