Orientul Mijlociu

The death of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar will not end the operation against Hamas in the Gaza Strip. Sinwar’s death is unlikely to trigger a rethink within Hamas about its basic strategy, which is to survive the war and secure a ceasefire that results in a total Israeli withdrawal.[i] Sinwar will be replaced by capable military commanders in the Gaza Strip and equally extreme political leaders abroad. A total Israeli withdrawal would be akin to Israel’s surrender in this war and would enable Sinwar’s capable successors to rebuild Hamas’ military organization over the next decade to threaten Israel once more.

The Israel-Hamas War is a prelude to future Iranian aggression in the Middle East. Iranian military leaders are explicitly drawing lessons from the war to develop concepts for fighting and destroying Israel. Senior Iranian officials are arguing that the war has revealed critical Israeli vulnerabilities that they can exploit. They are specifically examining ways to use proxy forces and terror to destabilize the Israeli state and Israeli society. Iran is sharpening these concepts because it is increasingly confident that its “Axis of Resistance”—the collection of Iranian-backed partners and proxies, including Hamas, across the region—is winning the current war against Israel and could fight and win a larger war too. Iran will not be able to fight a war at this scale for the foreseeable future, to be sure. But this Iranian thinking reflects Tehran’s regional aspirations and the current tenor of regime discourse. This thinking also underscores the importance of seeing the Israel-Hamas war within the context of the broader Iranian effort to dominate the Middle East. Narrowly focusing on the situation in the Gaza Strip ignores the war’s long-term implications and risks for the United States and its partners.

Israel’s recent success in eliminating Hamas and Hezbollah commanders has been attributed by influential Iranian theologian Mustafa Karami to nothing less than an army of jinn that Israel has enlisted to serve it. In the Middle East, it is still believed that jinn, who according to the Koran were created before Adam from a smokeless flame, can influence the fate of the world. Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei, for example, calls them the country’s main enemies, along with the United States and the coronavirus. And in Saudi Arabia, there is even a special anti-magic unit in the Ministry of Justice that has the authority to arrest and interrogate those suspected of witchcraft.

The statement reaffirmed the Salvation Government’s commitment to taking all necessary measures to defend civilians and uphold their right to live in safety and dignity in their homeland.

The Salvation Government has urged the Fatah al-Mubin operations room to take immediate and decisive measures to protect civilians and their property in northwestern Syria amid escalating Russian and Iranian attacks.

Syria is at the center of escalating tensions, facing both military incursions and a growing humanitarian crisis. The Israeli army intercepted two drones approaching from Syria, following a deadly Hezbollah drone attack, marking a deepening of the conflict on Israel’s northern borders with Syria and Lebanon. At the same time, thousands of Syrian refugees are returning home monthly from Turkey, with Turkey tightening its registration requirements for refugees and stopping a new migration wave from Syria. Meanwhile, inside Syria, a humanitarian funding shortfall threatens essential mental health care for millions displaced in the war-torn northwest, while UNRWA struggles to support displaced Palestinian refugees fleeing from Lebanon into Syria. Adding to this complex situation, Israel’s recent military movements in Syria’s Quneitra province have sparked concerns of further territorial annexation, raising alarm over broader regional conflict dynamics.

Erdogan claimed that Israel’s intentions to occupy Damascus after Lebanon could bring Israeli forces to Turkey’s border, Enab Baladi writes.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has warned that Israel’s potential occupation of Damascus would drastically alter Syria’s map. Speaking to reporters on his return from Albania on Saturday, October 12, Erdogan criticized Israeli threats against Lebanon and Syria, asserting that “the occupation of Damascus will represent a serious regional threat,” as reported by the Turkish presidency’s Communications Department.

This news round on Syria covers several critical developments. In Latakia, an Israeli airstrike targeted a weapons depot, causing injuries and triggering explosions, as tensions escalate following Hamas’s October 7 attacks. In Idlib, Russian airstrikes killed 10 people, as opposition-held areas continue to suffer from both Russian and Syrian regime bombardment, with rumors of a rebel offensive looming. Meanwhile, the families of French nationals who joined IS are urging the UN to pressure France for their repatriation. Additionally, the French company Lafarge faces trial for financing terrorism in Syria, amidst allegations of complicity in crimes against humanity. Lastly, Syrian refugees in Lebanon, displaced by Israeli bombings, are facing harsh conditions and forced relocations by Lebanese authorities, as the humanitarian crisis deepens.

• Iranian leaders view the Arab states of the Persian Gulf as pivotal to their efforts to deter Israel from attacking key targets in Iran.
• Iran is pressuring the Gulf states to deny Israel access to their airspace for any retaliatory strike on Iran.
• Iranian officials display no hesitation to threaten the Gulf states with strikes by Tehran or its regional allies if they help Israel or the United States.
• Attacks on Gulf energy installations would significantly expand the regional war and rattle the global economy.

One of the issues on which consensus should be created and can be treated at world level is that terrorism in all its forms should be firmly rejected. However this needs honesty and sincerity. Problems arise if some bigger powers insist on condemning terror attacks made by others but at the same time justify the use of terror by themselves on a large scale.

Each new week brings new calamities for people in the countries neighboring Israel, as its leaders try to bomb their way to the promised land of an ever-expanding Greater Israel.

In Gaza, Israel appears to be launching its “Generals’ Plan” to drive the most devastated and traumatized 2.2 million people in the world into the southern half of their open-air prison. Under this plan, Israel would hand the northern half over to greedy developers and settlers who, after decades of U.S. encouragement, have become a dominant force in Israeli politics and society. The redoubled slaughter of those who cannot move or refuse to move south has already begun.