The July election of reformist President Masoud Pezeshkian and historic fears of conflict with the U.S. military have delayed or derailed an Iranian retaliatory attack on Israel.
Iranian leaders appear willing to trade a military response to the killing in Tehran of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh for an indirect seat at the table in Gaza ceasefire talks.
Analysis: There are concerns that the new government in Sanaa could be part of Houthi preparations for a resumption of fighting in Yemen.
After eight years in power, the Houthi-led government in Sanaa, which is not recognised by the United Nations, was reshuffled last week, marking a new phase in priorities.
The southern arena: IDF forces continued their activity in the Rafah area in the southern Gaza
Strip and the Netzarim Corridor in the central Gaza Strip, expanding their activities in Khan Yunis
and Deir al-Balah. The Palestinian organizations continued firing rockets into Israeli territory,
including targeting the center of the country. Three IDF soldiers were killed in combat.
“The Palestinian resistance resorted to suicide operations as a response to the US and international collusion with Israel…” one analyst said.
The Palestinian armed resistance groups decided to resume “suicide operations” within Israeli territories, signalling a new phase in the fighting as Israel’s genocidal war continues past its tenth month.
On July 12, at the NATO summit in Washington, Turkey threatened to take steps to exclude Israel from all cooperation with NATO. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan said that “until comprehensive, sustainable peace is established in Palestine, attempts at cooperation with Israel within NATO will not be approved by Turkey.” This threat should be challenged by NATO members.
Nearly a year on from Hamas’ Oct. 7 offensive against Israel, Israel’s strategic environment — and indeed the strategic landscape of the wider Middle East — has changed profoundly. Hamas’ astounding surprise attack touched off a destructive war with Israel and a limited but fierce regional conflagration between Israel and the Iran-led “Axis of Resistance,” with Lebanese Hezbollah at the forefront. The ongoing war has been multi-fronted, multi-faceted, dynamic, and already highly consequential. While a clear bottom line remains elusive, exploring the war’s primary origins and evolution offers useful indicators. One key takeaway is that recent events have spotlighted the dangers a regional war would pose, thereby underscoring the importance of diplomacy. As such, Israel and the United States must prioritize a settlement of the related Israel-Hezbollah conflict.
When the guns eventually fall silent in Gaza, Israelis and Palestinians will confront a decades-old reality that cannot be overcome by violence and political half-measures. Both Jews and Palestinians will continue to assert privileged ownership of Palestine, citing centuries of history, the merits of which will never be settled conclusively by historians, let alone by the two principals. The question, therefore, is not whether Jews and Palestinians will continue living cheek by jowl, but how. Will they do so amid endless spasms of bloodletting or a coexistence created by a negotiated settlement that reconciles Israel’s need for security with Palestinians’ desire for statehood?
Israel prefers hardline leaders to maintain a monolithic view of the enemy. Its assassination in Tehran now forces the reformist Pezeshkian into a corner.
On July 5, Masoud Pezeshkian won the run-off elections in Iran to replace Ebrahim Raisi as president of the Islamic Republic, after the latter’s death in a helicopter crash in May. During the short campaign, Pezeshkian sought to win over voters with the basic platform of his reformist camp: restarting negotiations with the West to lift sanctions, building the economy, fighting poverty, and investing in housing, healthcare, welfare, and civil society. He was officially sworn in as president at the end of the month.
Since October 7, my life has been split between two parallel realms. In the first, I go about my daily life as usual here in Turkey, where I work, visit my friends, do my routine shopping, and take care of my immediate family. In the second realm, I am immersed in the daily reports of the death, destruction, displacement, and fear that my family, friends, and neighbors are enduring in Gaza, and try to help them as much as possible.
The ongoing instability in Syria remains a significant concern for regional and international actors, as multiple reports highlight the persistent threat of the Islamic State (ISIS) and the complex geopolitical dynamics at play. According to a recent Wall Street Journal exclusive, U.S. forces are engaged in a covert campaign to contain an ISIS resurgence in areas previously cleared of the group. This effort includes airstrikes, surveillance, and targeted missions against ISIS leaders, as the group attempts to rebuild its strength in the Syrian desert. Meanwhile, U.S.-backed Syrian forces have escalated their operations in eastern Syria, clashing with pro-government militias in a region already fraught with tension. Amid these developments, Turkey has outlined strict conditions for its potential withdrawal from northern Syria, linking it to constitutional reforms and security guarantees, while Jordan faces funding challenges in its ongoing response to the Syrian crisis. In contrast, Mosul’s Governor has dismissed rumors of security deterioration along the Iraq-Syria border, asserting that the area remains firmly under control. These reports underscore the enduring complexity and volatility of the Syrian conflict, with implications that stretch far beyond the region.