Coastal breakdown in Syria creates opportunities for Russia

As the Assad regime claws territory back across Syria from rebel and Islamist forces, it has had to mortgage its monopoly over the use of force to paramilitary groups to overcome its openly acknowledged manpower shortages. It has occasionally called on these militias to augment the army’s fighting capacity, but more often than not it has directed them to protect, and in some cases even police, areas away from the frontlines. This has been particularly true in Tartous and Latakia. In recent months, the loyalist militias tasked with providing security in these coastal areas, some connected directly to the president’s family, have challenged the regime’s primacy, prompting external intervention. The growing power of these groups and the response of Bashar al-Assad’s foreign backers illustrates how local skirmishes over smuggling routes can have much broader geopolitical implications as Russia gains ground at the expense of both the regime and Iran.

Five scenarios for the US-Iran conflict

The U.S. and Iran are locked in conflict. Regardless of the details or culpability regarding the latest attack on two tankers in the Gulf, the conflict is centered on Washington’s “maximum pressure” campaign and Tehran’s response that it will not sit idly by while its economy is brought to its knees. Instead, Tehran has communicated that it will inflict a heavy toll on U.S. partners in the region, especially Saudi Arabia and the UAE, and that if it can’t export its oil, other countries won’t be allowed to export theirs either. This conflict system is likely to endure, at least until the U.S. elections in November of next year, as the Trump administration is unlikely to lift sanctions and Iran will not quietly accept its fate. Among the many questions is what shape this conflict might take in the weeks and months ahead. Below, I sketch out five possibilities.

Arabs’ Nightmare: Absorbing Palestinians

Lebanon says it fully supports the Palestinians in their fight against Israel — but would like to see them leave the country as soon as possible.

This is the modern-day version of Arab “solidarity” with their Palestinian brothers: discrimination and apartheid — no jobs, no citizenship, no health care and no social services.

CEP to Release New Resources Detailing Links Between Extremism & Online Radicalization

New Series Will Build Upon Extremism Spotlight Series

Earlier this year, the Counter Extremism Project (CEP) highlighted the online presence of dangerous extremist propagandists known to law enforcement and intelligence communities as well as notorious extremist content with links to violence in its Extremism Spotlight series. Continuing to allow this material to remain online to radicalize followers and incite violence is inexplicable, especially in light of Google-owned YouTube’s decision in November 2017 to remove notorious al-Qaeda propagandist Anwar al-Awlaki from its platform in a “watershed moment.”