There is no doubt that the coup led by President Kais Saied in Tunisia has caused a major tremor in Arab societies yearning for freedom and democracy. They could smell the aroma of freedom from the Jasmine Revolution in Tunisia, the cradle of the Arab Spring. Tunisia gave them hope after the counter-revolutions in Syria, Egypt, Yemen and Libya ended regional optimism.
This Grey Dynamics African Intelligence Article analyses the SADAT paramilitary group, and the political de facto implications placed on Turkish-African relations and security amid an increase in cooperation between Turkey and African states.
Turkey is allegedly planning to use Syrian fighters in its proposed mission to guard and run Kabul’s airport, but this time recruitment is expected to proceed via private security firms.
Turkey’s government appears to have learned little from the troubles it has faced for deploying Syrian fighters in the wars in Libya and Nagorno-Karabakh, as media reports suggest it is now out to recruit mercenaries for its planned mission to secure Kabul’s airport after the US-led NATO mission completes its withdrawal from Afghanistan.
Some say they’re former opposition fighters, others say they’re refugees looking for a paycheck. One thing is clear: Turkey’s Syrian mercenaries have formed an integral part of the country’s foreign policy ambitions.
The conflict has pitted Armenia against Azerbaijan since the early 1990s, when the region was captured by local ethnic Armenians. However, the conflict has witnessed a new feature develop for the first time since it erupted nearly three decades ago.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is pursuing an ambitious goal. In order to realize Turkish great power fantasies, Turkey is not only developing an armory of international standing, but also wants to join the circle of the world’s preeminent military powers in the next few years. The construction of a light aircraft carrier as a supra-regional operational platform serves this goal.
In the near future, Turkey sees its warships, painted in light gray camouflage and flying the red flag with a white crescent moon and star, sweeping the Aegean, the eastern Mediterranean, and the Black Sea. Its navy, however, can also operate in parts of the Atlantic and Indian Oceans. The idea of the “blue fatherland” and the vision of transforming the Turkish coastal navy into a powerful ocean-going fleet serve as motivation to do so.
In theory, Turkey is a NATO ally. In theory, also, Turkey is in negotiations with the European Union for full membership. In reality, both are illusions.
In April, the European Council on Foreign Relations surveyed more than 17,000 people in 12 European countries. The survey found that: “Turkey is the only country that more Europeans see as an adversary than a necessary partner…. Europeans understand there are aspects of their relations with Russia, China, and Turkey that make these countries rivals or even adversaries.”
The Iron Dome missile defense system intercepted 10 rockets, with six falling in open areas; the others fell inside Lebanon.
A heavy barrage of close to 20 rockets was fired from Lebanon into northern Israel on Friday, activating the Iron Dome and setting off sirens throughout the area.
Recently there has been an increase in operations against the U.S. military presence in Syria. Within only two weeks there were six incidents of rocket and mortar fire against two bases of the U.S.-led Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS in northeastern Syria: the Al-Omar oil field east of Deir Al-Zor, which is the largest coalition base in Syria and houses U.S., French and British troops, and the base at the Conoco gas field in the same region.[1] While the attacks did not result in casualties, they no doubt reflect a shift in the struggle against the U.S. forces in Syria, which has until now mainly involved local villagers throwing stones at military vehicles and blocking military patrols, as well as clashes with regime forces at checkpoints manned by the latter.[2]
On July 27, 2021, an Al-Qaeda supporter calling himself Haydarah Al-Qandahari posted an article on Telegram titled “A Call to the Lions of Monotheism in the Syrian Arena”. In this article, written in Arabic, Al-Qandahari urges Al-Qaeda-aligned mujahideen in Syria to form small, independent groups consisting of three to five fighters, and to focus on targeting U.S. and Russian forces. It appears from the article that Al-Qandahari is located in Syria and his pen name probably indicates that he is a veteran of the Afghan jihad who spent time in the Kandahar area before coming to Syria.
The dynamics fostered by the wars and revolutions plaguing many Arab states today represent the most consequential national transformations since World War I, culminating in a period of civilian defiance and resistance that was especially distinct between 2010 – 2020. Despite being pauperized by predatory governments, citizens have challenged their heavily militarized states, emerging to fight battles that have been brewing for decades. Both the protesting citizens in the streets and the hardline governments that try to blunt their momentum are highly motivated. The outcome of these historic confrontations remains unclear. Yet, it is already possible to identify the causes, actors, motivations, and tactics on both sides that have fueled the waves of rebellion and repression over the past decade. Since the start of the 2010 – 2011 uprisings across the Arab world – the so-called “Arab Spring” – long-term transformations in the mindsets and actions of citizens have emerged that have the potential to catalyze political change across the region for decades to come, shaping political relationships between the governed and governors.