Orientul Mijlociu

As Western capitals try to compartmentalize problems in a bid to separately tackle Ankara’s veto threat over Finnish and Swedish NATO bids and prevent a potential Turkish military operation against their Syrian Kurdish allies, Turkey is pushing for an “all-in bargain” on several fronts. This includes demanding a free hand from Russian and US interference in Ankara’s plans in Syria, a lifting of arms embargoes against the country, and extradition of several intellectuals and activists from Sweden and Finland.

Complacency has been the hallmark of NATO expansion. Over time, it has even become a form of derision, notably directed against Russia. As with many historical matters, records ignored can be records revisited, the second time around sometimes nastier than the first.

Turkey, reportedly on the verge of yet another military incursion into Syria, appears up to other fun and games as well.

The so-called “terrorists” to whom Erdoğan is referring are Kurdish politicians, political activists, and refugees who live in Sweden and Finland. In particular, those who engage in advocacy for political equality and the official recognition of Kurds in Turkey and Syria. The Turkish government wants the two Nordic nations to extradite these individuals to Turkey.

The goal of Iran’s mullahs is to spread their control to as many countries as possible by using their terrorist proxies, including Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad in the Gaza Strip, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and the Houthi militia in Yemen.

What’s new? In October 2020, Baghdad and Erbil signed an agreement intended to build stability in Iraq’s Sinjar district through a new administration and security structure that would let displaced people return. The deal is only partly fulfilled, however. Turkey is intensifying bombardment of the PKK and its affiliates in the area.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s pledge to carry out a new military operation on Turkey’s southern border sparked speculations as to the possible targets, which could include towns such as Tel Rifaat, Manbij and Kobani.

Kobani, Manbij and Tel Rifaat stand out as the main targets in a prospective new Turkish operation in northern Syria, but Erdogan might narrow his objectives to avoid tensions with the United States.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has raised the prospect of a fresh military operation in Syria, trying his hand once again at creating a safe zone with a depth of about 30 kilometers (19 miles) along the border — a plan he had to shelve in October 2021 after failing to get a green light from Russia and the United States.

One might well wonder if the CNAS study is a “trial balloon” from the Biden Administration to begin preparing the nation and world psychologically for the advent of Iran’s “Islamic bomb.”

One might also wonder if the CNAS study is an attempt to justify consequent U.S. retreat from the Middle East, not as another humiliating defeat, but as a prudent and wise reprioritization of resources to meet the threat from China.