Orientul Mijlociu

How Turkey Won the Syrian Civil War

In most capitals across the Middle East, the news of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s fall sparked immense anxiety. Ankara is not one of them. Rather than worrying about Syria’s prospects after more than a decade of conflict, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan sees opportunity in a post-Assad future. His optimism is well founded: out of all the region’s major players, Ankara has the strongest channels of communication and history of working with the Islamist group now in charge in Damascus, positioning it to reap the benefits of the Assad regime’s demise.

Syria’s Kurds faced with all-out war as Turkey, Sunni allies target Kobani

A day after the fall of the SDF-controlled town of Manbij, Turkish proxies advanced today toward the town of Kobani.

The collapse of the Bashar al-Assad regime following a lightning offensive led by al-Qaeda offshoot Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and an array of Sunni factions supported by Turkey has created new realities on the ground for the country’s Kurds, who have since 2012 administered the northeast and eastern parts of the country. The overall picture is negative as the US-backed Syrian Kurdish Democratic Forces loses control of growing swaths of territory east of Afrin, including the towns of Tell Rifaat and Manbij lying to the West of the Euphrates River, to Turkish-backed Sunni opposition forces.

Syria Insight: Assad’s rampant corruption leads to his downfall

The Syrian Arab Army is no more, an institution built to fight Israel that eventually ate itself due to rampant corruption and ineptitude.

Few analysts could have predicted the events that unfolded last week in Syria when a limited rebel offensive in Aleppo province led to the downfall of Bashar Al-Assad’s regime, 13 years after a revolution against his corrupt and authoritarian rule began.

What happened in Syria? How did al-Assad fall?

Opposition forces have taken control of the capital after a significant offensive. Here is how it unravelled.

In the early hours of Sunday morning, opposition forces declared Syria liberated from the rule of President Bashar al-Assad as opposition forces surged into the capital.

Syrian government services come to a ‘complete halt’ as state workers stay home after rebel takeover

Syria’s prime minister said Monday that most cabinet ministers were back at work after rebels overthrew President Bashar Assad, but some state workers failed to return to their jobs, and a United Nations official said the country’s public sector had come “to a complete and abrupt halt.”

Meanwhile, streams of refugees crossed back into Syria from neighboring countries, hoping for a more peaceful future and looking for relatives who disappeared during Assad’s brutal rule.

What Role Is Turkey Playing in Syria’s Civil War?

What role are outside powers playing in Syria’s new rebel offensive?

Turkey is the most important outside power supporting the rebel side. It geographically adjoins Syrian rebel territory in the northwest, and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s government supported the 2011 Arab Spring uprising against Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s regime. At times, he also backed a variety of Islamist groups during the Syrian civil war. The leading and most substantial rebel group, Ha’yat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), is the former Al-Nusra Front, a jihadist organization that fought the self-declared Islamic State (ISIS). It renamed itself and claimed that it renounced some of its more extreme positions, has become more respectful of minorities, and has taken on some institutional responsibilities in the form of local government. While there are indications that HTS acquired Turkish help in the form of arms, primarily drones, prior to this offensive, HTS is not Ankara’s primary client. It’s also worth noting that HTS has reportedly been manufacturing its own arms in recent years.

In historic campaign across Syria, IDF says it destroyed 80% of Assad regime’s military

After rebel takeover, Israeli Air Force and Navy strike missile depots, naval vessels, fighter jets and more to ensure they don’t fall into wrong hands

Following a major 48-hour bombing campaign in Syria, the Israel Defense Forces on Tuesday said it had destroyed most of the former Bashar al-Assad regime’s strategic military capabilities, in an effort to prevent advanced weaponry from falling into the hands of hostile elements.

Iran in ‘direct contact’ with groups in Syria’s new leadership

Iran has opened a direct line of communication with rebels in Syria’s new leadership since its ally Bashar al-Assad was ousted, in an attempt to “prevent a hostile trajectory” between the countries, a senior Iranian official told Reuters on Monday.

The lightning advance of a militia alliance spearheaded by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, a former al-Qaeda affiliate, led by Abu Mohammed al-Jawlani, marked one of the biggest turning points for the Middle East in generations.

Assad’s fall as president removed a bastion from which Iran and Russia exercised influence across the Arab world.

Hours after Assad’s fall, Iran said it expected relations with Damascus to continue based on the two countries’ “far-sighted and wise approach” and called for the establishment of an inclusive government representing all segments of Syrian society.

There is little doubt about Tehran’s concern about how the change of power in Damascus will affect Iran’s influence in Syria, the lynchpin of its regional clout, Reuters reported.

But there is no panic, three Iranian officials told Reuters, as Tehran seeks diplomatic avenues to establish contact with people whom one of the officials called “those within Syria’s new ruling groups whose views are closer to Iran’s”.

“The main concern for Iran is whether Assad’s successor will push Syria away from Tehran’s orbit,” a second Iranian official said.

“That is a scenario Iran is keen to avoid.”

A hostile post-Assad Syria would deprive Lebanese armed group Hezbollah of its only land supply route and deny Iran its main access to the Mediterranean and the “front line” with Israel.

One of the senior officials said Iran’s clerical rulers, facing the loss of an important ally in Damascus and the return of Donald Trump to the White House in January, were open to engaging with Syria’s new leaders.

“This engagement is key to stabilise ties and avoiding further regional tensions,” the official said.

Contact with new Syrian leadership

Tehran has established contacts with two groups inside the new leadership and the level of interaction will be assessed in the coming days after a meeting at Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, a top security body, the official told Reuters.

Two of the Iranian officials said Tehran was wary of Trump using Assad’s removal as leverage to intensify economic and political pressure on Iran, “either to force concessions or to destabilise the Islamic Republic”.

After pulling the United States out of Iran’s 2015 nuclear deal with six major powers in 2018, then-president Trump pursued a “maximum pressure” policy that led to extreme economic hardship and exacerbated public discontent in Iran.

Trump is staffing his planned administration with hawks on Iran.

In 2020, Trump, as president, ordered a drone strike that killed Qassem Soleimani, Iran’s most powerful military commander and mastermind of overseas attacks on U.S. interests and those of its allies.

“Iran is now only left with two options: fall back and draw a defensive line in Iraq or seek a deal with Trump,” said Ali Vaez of the International Crisis Group.

The fall of Assad exposed Tehran’s dwindling strategic leverage in the region, exacerbated by Israel’s military offensives against Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Palestinian militant group Hamas in Gaza, Reuters reported.

Iran spent billions of dollars propping up Assad during the civil war that erupted in Syria in 2011 and deployed its Revolutionary Guards to Syria to keep its ally in power and maintain Tehran’s “Axis of Resistance” to Israel and U.S. influence in the Middle East.

Assad’s fall removes a critical link in Iran’s regional resistance chain that served as a crucial transit route for Tehran to supply arms and fund its proxies and particularly Hezbollah.