Orientul Mijlociu

Besides the question of Iran’s culpability in the assassination attempt on the Iraqi Prime Minister, Iraq still faces grave problems that violence and instability can exacerbate.

Tensions in Iraq are whipping up. On November 7, three explosives-laden drones targeted Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al Kadhimi’s residence in the Green Zone. Two were shot down but one explosion injured seven security guards. When Kadhimi made his televised address shortly after the attack, his left wrist was in a bandage, suggesting he was wounded too. “We maintained security in the country, but some are still trying to tamper with Iraq’s security and want it to be a gang state,” said the 54-year-old Prime Minister.

A power struggle between the old PKK leadership in Qandil and the younger YPG generation in Syria asks the question: Bashar al Assad or the US?

Cemil Bayik, who sits on a US wanted list, recently made remarks about the PKK’s historic and strong relations with the Assad regime and advocated for an agreement between the regime and the YPG. These remarks are not only related to the politics of Syria but open up a new dimension of the internal rivalry within the PKK.

The PKK affiliate YPG has developed relations with the US, Russia and the Syrian regime, claiming significant territories in northern Syria. But a top US general says the time has come for the group to either be with Washington or join its rivals.

US ally the YPG is close to facing a dilemma after a top-ranked US military official ruled out the possibility of working with the militant group if it chose to normalise its relations with the Syrian regime, a Russian ally.

In the early hours of Nov. 7, three quadcopter drones armed with explosives detonated inside the grounds of the official residence of Iraq’s prime minister, Mustafa Al-Kadhimi, injuring seven members of his security detail.

Al-Kadhimi, who escaped with only light injuries, promptly released a statement appealing for calm. The question as to who was behind the attack, however, remained unanswered and open to speculation.

Al-Hasakah province: SOHR sources have reported a new assassination in al-Hawl camp in the far south-eastern region of al-Hasakah countryside, as gunmen of ISIS cells shot a female Iraqi refugee from Mosul dead in the camp’s fifth section.

It is worth noting that the number of murders committed in al-Hawl camp since the end of the first phase of the large-scale security campaign has reached 33, which indicates to alarming escalation of killings in the camp.

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan vowed to consolidate security lines on Turkey’s southern border with Syria, his latest hint of a potential offensive against American-backed Kurdish forces there.

“Turkey will defend its rights in the Aegean and Mediterranean seas, will build the Istanbul Canal, and will merge its security lines across border,” Erdogan said Saturday in the western province of Canakkale.

Regional realignment is storming ahead in the run-up to November 29, the date set for the resumption of nuclear negotiations between Iran and the global powers in Vienna. This is being driven by sudden, major regional developments. This includes the alleged actions by Iran’s proxies in Iraq, such as an assassination attempt against Prime Minister Mustafa Al Kadhimi as well as Hezbollah’s activities in Lebanon.

On 7 November, outgoing Iraqi prime minister Mustafa Al-Kadhimi survived an assassination attempt, casting a shadow over the country’s recent elections. While the attack remains unclaimed, pro-Iranian Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) groups are suspected of being involved following their party’s (the Fatah Alliance) rejection of the election results. The attack occurred only days after large demonstrations, held by Fatah supporters, turned violent last week in Baghdad. The protestors are claiming election fraud after the party lost a significant chunk of its parliamentary seats in the October 10 elections.