This week marks the 11th anniversary of the war in Syria.
As a Syrian American, it is difficult to acknowledge such a grim milestone without feeling a profound sense of anguish over the nearly 500,000 lives lost, the displacement of over 13 million people, and the destruction of its cultural relics.
The Risks of an Unstable Authoritarian Order
little more than a decade after the Arab Spring swept away many autocratic regimes in the Middle East and plunged others into chaos, a new authoritarian order is settling over the region. Egypt and Tunisia, the first two countries to rid themselves of longtime dictators in 2011, have weathered coups that pulled them back toward authoritarianism. Sudan, which had to wait until 2018 for its revolution to succeed, has also seen its once-promising transition to democracy derailed by a coup. Meanwhile, Iran has expanded its sphere of influence across the Middle East, especially in Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen, while China, Russia, Turkey, and the Gulf states have increased their sway over many of the region’s weakest states. Thanks in part to these trends, President Bashar al-Assad’s brutal regime in Syria is being quietly eased back into the Arab fold.
Erdogan sees opportunity in Ukraine crisis, including enhanced global role and dramatic reset in ties with Israel, as he weighs next steps in Libya and elections next year.
Erdogan: Turkey will leave its mark on 21st century
“Turkey’s diplomatic isolation was the focus of excited punditry in recent years,” writes Amberin Zaman, “but today, Ankara is running out of red carpet as a deluge of foreign dignitaries knock at its door.”
Gen. Frank McKenzie, the outgoing head of U.S. Central Command, said that he wished during his tenure that CENTCOM did a better job of convincing countries to repatriate captured Islamic State fighters.
McKenzie spoke to reporters for the final time in his role on Friday morning, warning that a failure to repatriate captured ISIS fighters would ultimately lead to “ISIS 2.0 down the road.”
The Islamic State has recently intensified its activity against the Syrian government forces and its allies, setting up a number of ambushes in the Syrian desert and killing dozens.
The Islamic State (IS) regularly targets military bases and vehicles in the Syrian desert, which extends between the governorates of Homs and Deir ez-Zor on the border with Iraq, the area to which IS fighters have retreated since they lost their last stronghold in Syria in 2019.
The Houthis are a dangerous and deadly terrorist group based in Yemen. Recently, senior Houthi leader Mohammed Ali al-Houthi went on an antisemitic tirade in support of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine stating, “It is because its President is Jewish. Any country run by a Jew ends up going to war.”
What, then, revived Iran’s covert operations in Turkey? For Iran, the “good Turkey” was the one in constant bickering with the West and Israel. The “bad” one is claiming to seek reconciliation with Israel, the Gulf states and Egypt.
The Turkish president’s pro-refugee rhetoric aims to deliver a positive message to Western allies and slash the opposition, but activists wonder if it is sincere.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan pledged that “unfortunate people” who have sought shelter in Turkey would not be sent to their war-torn countries, simultaneously attacking the opposition’s anti-migrant rhetoric and signaling to the Western allies that he would not “weaponize” the refugee issue.
Thousands of Russians fearing the political and economic fallout of the Ukraine war have fled to Istanbul, with most planning to travel on to Europe or former Soviet republics.
Europe has been looking to Azerbaijan, Israel and other countries to transit gas via Turkey, but assuming political obstacles can be overcome, the massive investments needed will take time to realize.
The build-up of Russian troops on Ukraine’s borders and the subsequent brutal invasion has sent European leaders rushing to find new sources of natural gas to replace at least a significant part of the 155 billion cubic meters of gas that the European Union imported from Russia last year — around 40% of its total consumption. But securing new pipeline gas supplies will not be easy or quick. The simple fact is that there is no “magic tap” that the EU can turn on.