Turkey Briefing
As actors involved have notably toned down their objections to Turkey’s potential ground offensive in northern Syria, the ball seems to be in Russia’s court, but how can Ankara convince Moscow to give it a green light?
As actors involved have notably toned down their objections to Turkey’s potential ground offensive in northern Syria, the ball seems to be in Russia’s court, but how can Ankara convince Moscow to give it a green light?

On Oct. 31, local units previously affiliated with the Free Syrian Army (FSA) launched a large-scale military operation against the al-Hafo-Harfoush group in the southern Syrian city of Daraa al-Balad. The units responsible for carrying out the operation in the Tariq al-Sad and al-Mukhayyam neighborhoods had chosen to remain in the governorate after signing reconciliation agreements with the Syrian regime under Russian auspices in July 2018.

In a move that reflects both the increasing ties between Moscow and Tehran and the difficulties both countries have in shipping via the Caucasus land bridge given instability and political changes there, the two governments have announced plans to open trade on the Caspian Sea between Astrakhan in Russia and Bender-Enzeli in Iran.

The United States was able to quickly confirm the death of the Islamic State’s leader in southern Syria this past October because it had his DNA and other biometric data on file from an encounter with him from long before he took the helm of the terror group.
U.S. officials are still refusing to share the true identity of the man known to most of the world only by his nom-de-guerre, Abu al-Hassan al-Hashimi al-Qurashi.

The ceasefire between the Government of the Republic of Yemen and Houthi opposition forces formally expired in early October and continues to deteriorate.
In November, the Houthis attacked government-controlled energy infrastructure targets, but they have thus far stopped short of resuming strikes on targets inside neighboring Saudi Arabia.

Turkiye has been attacking Kurdish groups in Syria and Iraq in response to a November 13 terrorist attack in central Istanbul.
Ankara is threatening to launch a ground operation to widen the buffer zone along its border with Syria.
The Turkish offensives are increasing strains with Washington, which is allied with Kurdish groups in both Syria and Iraq.

The commander of Iran’s Basij Organization says that the United States is engaged in a hybrid war against the country.
After two and a half months of protests leading to hundreds of deaths, including an especially high number of teenagers, Iran has continued to claim that foreign hands are behind the unrest in the country.

Iran is opening offices for its oil ministries in several Iraqi cities to expand cooperation in oil, gas and other energy sectors.
The Iranian oil ministry has opened an office in Baghdad to expand the energy cooperation between the two countries.

President Ebrahim Raisi made no reference to the killings of the protesters in the government crackdown and once again blamed the unrest on outside enemies.
Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi described the public protests that have gripped his country since mid-September as “yet another disgraceful miscalculation” by “the enemy.”

In order to fill the depleted ranks of the Russian army fighting in Ukraine, Moscow is making it easier for persons with dual citizenship to be drafted and serve and for those with citizenship in other countries to volunteer to serve in the Russian armed forces.