Orientul Mijlociu

Lebanese political analyst Mikhael Awad said in a July 18, 2022 show on Al-Manar TV (Hizbullah-Lebanon) that according to the “data,” a potential war between Israel and Hizbullah would be decided in only two days. He explained that Hizbullah would rapidly reach Nazareth and the Israeli-Arab town of Umm Al-Fahm, and that within a short period of time, Israel would have no territory left from which to launch missiles, planes, and warships. He also said that war is the cheaper and “easier” option for Lebanon, and he gave the example of the Second Lebanon War, claiming that everything that had been destroyed in the war had been rebuilt at no cost to Lebanon. In addition, he said that he hopes war breaks out because Israel is a “cancerous growth” that can only be removed surgically. Moreover, Awad said that such a war would spell the end of Israel, of the current Arab regimes, and of the Sykes-Picot divisions, and that it would restructure the entire world around the “pillar” of the “resistance”. He added that the U.S. and Europe would not participate in the war because this would drive up the price of oil.

In a July 18, 2022 interview on Russia Today TV, former Iranian diplomat Amir Mousavi was asked about the validity of senior Iranian official Kamal Kharrazi’s previous-day statement on Al-Jazeera Network that Iran is a nuclear threshold country and that it has the ability to produce nuclear weapons (see MEMRI TV Clip No. 9694). Mousavi responded that there is no doubt that Iran can produce nuclear weapons. He added that there is pressure from inside Iran and from the region to change Khamenei’s fatwa banning nuclear weapons and that this may lead to reconsideration of the alleged fatwa. (see MEMRI Inquiry & Analysis Series No. 1022 and No. 1151). He explained that Iran has thus far refrained from producing nuclear weapons due to its “moral values” and its “principles,” but that Iran’s leadership is under domestic and regional pressure from its supporters to reconsider this policy.

Masrour Barzani, prime minister of the Kurdistan Regional Government of Iraq, met July 24 with Iraqi officials in Baghdad, including Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi, reportedly discussing the establishment of a new energy government for the Kurdistan Region.

While the Turkish lira continues to tumble, Turkey’s currency swaps with China and other countries have failed to live up to their stated objective of boosting trade in local currencies, official data show.

Ankara’s long-standing ambition to expand the use of the Turkish lira in foreign trade was back on the agenda this week as President Recep Tayyip Erdogan held talks with his Russian and Iranian counterparts in Tehran, rekindling debates on whether trading in the local currency is a viable prospect or just wishful thinking.

Syrian Kurdish leader says Turkish intentions unclear.

Will Turkey mount yet another military incursion against US-backed Kurdish forces in northeastern Syria “at any time, any moment,” as the country’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been threatening for some time? The threat seemed to subside as Erdogan came back “empty handed,” as Al-Monitor contributor Fehim Tastekin put it, from last week’s summit in Tehran with Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and Russia’s President Vladimir Putin. However, Erdogan seems unfazed and Syrian Kurdish leaders are growing increasingly bitter at perceived Western indifference to their plight.

Post World War II Germany has exhibited commendable characteristics — publicly atoning for its Nazi past, working assiduously to create a thriving nation, designing a truly democratic country, integrating its European compatriots into a common market, leading others in opening borders to refugees, and modifying its previous ultra-nationalism to form the European union. Behind these praiseworthy attributes lurks another Germany and with a deadly appearance. Germany, which committed the World War II genocide, actively aids and abets another genocide ─ the genocide of the Palestinian people.

Last Wednesday, somewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan informed reporters traveling with Joe Biden to the Middle East that the president would not be shaking hands during his trip. The stated reason was the recent uptick in COVID-19. But in reality, the White House—which less than forty-eight hours earlier had brought together a large crowd to celebrate the passage of new gun-control legislation—was spooked by the optics of shaking hands with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (also known as MBS), the man accused of ordering the murder of Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi.

The threat posed by the global jihadist movement in mid-2022 looks much different than it did just a few years ago, with terrorist groups in the Middle East weakened, while those in South Asia and Africa have grown stronger.

A recent UN report laid out the line of succession for al-Qaeda, an important issue, especially considering the age and health of the group’s leader Ayman al-Zawahiri and how much the future of al-Qaeda depends on who succeeds him as emir.

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s July 19 visit to Tehran, for meetings with leaders of Iran and Turkey (Türkiye), is intended to expand relations with Iran and protect Russia’s other regional interests.

The Putin trip to Tehran represents the Kremlin’s attempt to counter President Biden’s mid-July trip to historic U.S. allies Israel and Saudi Arabia.

President Biden’s July 13-16 visit to Israel and Saudi Arabia sought to reassure key regional allies wary of the U.S. commitment to secure them against Iran and other threats.

The President did not articulate any overarching strategic vision for the region, but the meetings did address potential solutions to some regional concerns and conflicts.