Orientul Mijlociu

The Risks of an Unstable Authoritarian Order

little more than a decade after the Arab Spring swept away many autocratic regimes in the Middle East and plunged others into chaos, a new authoritarian order is settling over the region. Egypt and Tunisia, the first two countries to rid themselves of longtime dictators in 2011, have weathered coups that pulled them back toward authoritarianism. Sudan, which had to wait until 2018 for its revolution to succeed, has also seen its once-promising transition to democracy derailed by a coup. Meanwhile, Iran has expanded its sphere of influence across the Middle East, especially in Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen, while China, Russia, Turkey, and the Gulf states have increased their sway over many of the region’s weakest states. Thanks in part to these trends, President Bashar al-Assad’s brutal regime in Syria is being quietly eased back into the Arab fold.

Erdogan sees opportunity in Ukraine crisis, including enhanced global role and dramatic reset in ties with Israel, as he weighs next steps in Libya and elections next year.

Erdogan: Turkey will leave its mark on 21st century

“Turkey’s diplomatic isolation was the focus of excited punditry in recent years,” writes Amberin Zaman, “but today, Ankara is running out of red carpet as a deluge of foreign dignitaries knock at its door.”

The Islamic State has recently intensified its activity against the Syrian government forces and its allies, setting up a number of ambushes in the Syrian desert and killing dozens.

The Islamic State (IS) regularly targets military bases and vehicles in the Syrian desert, which extends between the governorates of Homs and Deir ez-Zor on the border with Iraq, the area to which IS fighters have retreated since they lost their last stronghold in Syria in 2019.

The Houthis are a dangerous and deadly terrorist group based in Yemen. Recently, senior Houthi leader Mohammed Ali al-Houthi went on an antisemitic tirade in support of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine stating, “It is because its President is Jewish. Any country run by a Jew ends up going to war.”

What, then, revived Iran’s covert operations in Turkey? For Iran, the “good Turkey” was the one in constant bickering with the West and Israel. The “bad” one is claiming to seek reconciliation with Israel, the Gulf states and Egypt.