Orientul Mijlociu

The impact of the war in Ukraine on Russian-Turkish relations and Black Sea security: Three potential scenarios

Russian-Turkish relations are in large part based on the personal chemistry, affinity, and trust between Presidents Vladimir Putin and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has put these personal ties to the test. While President Erdoğan also maintains a close working relationship with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Turkish-Ukrainian military ties are strong, it has become clear that Erdoğan is not willing to sacrifice relations with Putin for Zelenskyy’s sake. Moreover, Erdoğan’s efforts to mediate between the two leaders have been either rebuffed or ignored by Putin. As Russia’s war in Ukraine continues, where things go from here is far from certain, but it is worth considering the range of possibilities. The three scenarios presented below highlight the potential challenges and opportunities that Putin, Erdoğan, and, to a lesser degree, Zelenskyy may face depending on how the conflict plays out, as well as what is at stake for other countries in the Black Sea region.

Can a new EU strategy bring EU and Gulf actors closer together?

Relations between the European Union (EU) and the Gulf countries have been on life support for a long time. Ever since an early push for a free trade agreement between the EU and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) foundered in 2008, few serious efforts have been made to revive the relationship. Instead, the two sides have become experts at talking past each other, blithely skidding from crisis to crisis. Whether it is Iran’s nuclear threat, the Houthis in Yemen, the Libyan civil war, or Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, it has often been difficult for the EU and the Gulf to find a joint perspective or a common cause.

Traffickers use refugees to smuggle drugs from Iran to Turkey

There are growing claims and indications that refugees illegally crossing the Iranian-Turkish border, the route of an exodus from Afghanistan to the West, are forced to smuggle drugs by their traffickers.

The paths of refugees and drug traffickers have crossed at the porous Iranian-Turkish border, the route of tens of thousands fleeing Afghanistan, with growing indications that refugees are being forced to carry drugs.

Turkey continues regional initiative with meetings with Israel, Egypt

Turkey’s foreign minister says he will gather with his Egyptian and Israeli counterparts, possibly with Defense Minister Hulusi Akar accompanying him to Israel.

Turkey’s Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said that he would get together with his Egyptian and Israeli counterparts soon, in line with Turkey’s regional diplomacy efforts.

As Western capitals seek to compartmentalize, Turkey pushes on with brinkmanship

As Western capitals try to compartmentalize problems in a bid to separately tackle Ankara’s veto threat over Finnish and Swedish NATO bids and prevent a potential Turkish military operation against their Syrian Kurdish allies, Turkey is pushing for an “all-in bargain” on several fronts. This includes demanding a free hand from Russian and US interference in Ankara’s plans in Syria, a lifting of arms embargoes against the country, and extradition of several intellectuals and activists from Sweden and Finland.

Turkey Spoils the Big NATO Party

Complacency has been the hallmark of NATO expansion. Over time, it has even become a form of derision, notably directed against Russia. As with many historical matters, records ignored can be records revisited, the second time around sometimes nastier than the first.

Turkey, Terrorists and NATO

Turkey, reportedly on the verge of yet another military incursion into Syria, appears up to other fun and games as well.

The so-called “terrorists” to whom Erdoğan is referring are Kurdish politicians, political activists, and refugees who live in Sweden and Finland. In particular, those who engage in advocacy for political equality and the official recognition of Kurds in Turkey and Syria. The Turkish government wants the two Nordic nations to extradite these individuals to Turkey.

EU sanctions al-Qaida-linked group, two leaders

The member states of the European Union on Monday agreed to impose terrorism-related sanctions against an al-Qaida-affiliated armed insurgent group and two of its leaders.

The European Council, which oversees the 27-member bloc’s political direction, identified Hurras al-Din, a Syria-based al-Qaida affiliate, its leader, Faruq al-Suri, and its religious leader, Sami al-Aridi, for asset freezes and travel bans.