Orientul Mijlociu

With missile stockpiles edging up across the Middle East, there is a clear need to develop a regional code for their acceptable use.

The Middle East is entering a new missile age. More regional states are either developing indigenous production capabilities or importing missiles than ever before. Currently, 11 states in the Middle East have ballistic or cruise missiles with ranges exceeding 250 km in their arsenals. But it is not just about the number of regional actors acquiring longer-range missiles. Missiles have also become a frequent feature of several regional conflicts, where they are used to meet new and evolving objectives beyond just deterrence or signalling military strength. This was on display during the Syrian civil war, and continues to feature prominently in the war in Yemen. Iran currently actively employs missiles to project power regionally. These examples reflect new patterns of use and a greater access to missiles perhaps unprecedented on a regional scale. As these dynamics take hold, traditional options and views about missile control start to appear both inadequate and out of sync with new regional realities.

Despite speculation around Russian President Vladimir Putin’s recent trip to Tehran, Russia–Iran relations remain firmly transactional.

President Vladimir Putin’s recent visit to Tehran, coupled with intelligence released by the US about Iran’s provision of armed drones to Russia, has renewed speculation that the relationship between the two might finally be moving towards a deeper, more strategic one. While these developments deserve careful monitoring, nothing much has changed in their ties yet. They continue to opt for ad hoc cooperation on specific issues and crises, which is balanced by mutual mistrust and competition, even in the context of the Ukraine war and its global implications.

The skeptics, this author included, were proven wrong. Turkey, and yes, the UN, got Russia and Ukraine to sign a critical deal in Istanbul that would help stave off a global food crisis as we put this newsletter to bed.

The Iranian Intelligence Ministry said its forces have disbanded a network of agents affiliated with Israel’s spy agency that had been deployed to Iran to carry out terrorist operations.

The Intelligence Ministry said in a statement on Saturday that members of a terrorist group affiliated with Mossad were identified and arrested by Iranian security forces before they could carry out any act of sabotage.

Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, has reappointed Ahmad Jannati, 95, to another six-year term as the head of the Guardian Council. If still alive by then, he will finish his term when he turns 101. According to Khamenei’s decree, issued on Saturday, two other clerics, Mohammad-Reza Modarresi Yazdi and Mehdi Shabzendedar Jahromi were also reinstated in their positions in the Council. The Guardian Council sometimes referred to as the Constitutional Council, is comprised of Islamic sharia law experts tasked with checking legislations approved by Iran’s parliament against the Constitution and sharia law and approving candidates in various elections in Iran.

Lebanese political analyst Mikhael Awad said in a July 18, 2022 show on Al-Manar TV (Hizbullah-Lebanon) that according to the “data,” a potential war between Israel and Hizbullah would be decided in only two days. He explained that Hizbullah would rapidly reach Nazareth and the Israeli-Arab town of Umm Al-Fahm, and that within a short period of time, Israel would have no territory left from which to launch missiles, planes, and warships. He also said that war is the cheaper and “easier” option for Lebanon, and he gave the example of the Second Lebanon War, claiming that everything that had been destroyed in the war had been rebuilt at no cost to Lebanon. In addition, he said that he hopes war breaks out because Israel is a “cancerous growth” that can only be removed surgically. Moreover, Awad said that such a war would spell the end of Israel, of the current Arab regimes, and of the Sykes-Picot divisions, and that it would restructure the entire world around the “pillar” of the “resistance”. He added that the U.S. and Europe would not participate in the war because this would drive up the price of oil.

In a July 18, 2022 interview on Russia Today TV, former Iranian diplomat Amir Mousavi was asked about the validity of senior Iranian official Kamal Kharrazi’s previous-day statement on Al-Jazeera Network that Iran is a nuclear threshold country and that it has the ability to produce nuclear weapons (see MEMRI TV Clip No. 9694). Mousavi responded that there is no doubt that Iran can produce nuclear weapons. He added that there is pressure from inside Iran and from the region to change Khamenei’s fatwa banning nuclear weapons and that this may lead to reconsideration of the alleged fatwa. (see MEMRI Inquiry & Analysis Series No. 1022 and No. 1151). He explained that Iran has thus far refrained from producing nuclear weapons due to its “moral values” and its “principles,” but that Iran’s leadership is under domestic and regional pressure from its supporters to reconsider this policy.

Masrour Barzani, prime minister of the Kurdistan Regional Government of Iraq, met July 24 with Iraqi officials in Baghdad, including Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi, reportedly discussing the establishment of a new energy government for the Kurdistan Region.

While the Turkish lira continues to tumble, Turkey’s currency swaps with China and other countries have failed to live up to their stated objective of boosting trade in local currencies, official data show.

Ankara’s long-standing ambition to expand the use of the Turkish lira in foreign trade was back on the agenda this week as President Recep Tayyip Erdogan held talks with his Russian and Iranian counterparts in Tehran, rekindling debates on whether trading in the local currency is a viable prospect or just wishful thinking.