Orientul Mijlociu

How Nasrallah’s death remade the strategic landscape

During a year of conflict in the Middle East, Israel and the Palestinians have bled while Iran and its regional allies have benefited at virtually no cost. Now Israel appears to have reshaped the landscape with its devastating war on Iran’s most powerful proxy, Hezbollah, in Lebanon. Hezbollah’s leadership is decimated, its command and control in disarray, and its intelligence and inner workings thoroughly penetrated, exposed, and vulnerable. Its personnel and heavy equipment are being degraded on a daily basis. Tehran’s strategy of relying on Hezbollah and other militant groups to provide an Arab-forward defense against Israeli or American attacks on Iran’s homeland or nuclear facilities appears to be failing, potentially decisively.

The news of the September 27, 2024 assassination of Hizbullah secretary-general Hassan Nasrallah in an Israeli airstrike was joyfully welcomed by members of the Syrian opposition. They took to the street in droves in several cities, setting off fireworks and distributing sweets; some even carried signs expressing their gratitude to Israel. The euphoria that they had been feeling as Israel’s elimination of senior members of Hizbullah, an ally of the Bashar Al-Assad regime in the war against the Syrian opposition, had gained momentum was now at its peak. Syrian oppositionists also expressed their joy on social media, calling the day of Nasrallah’s killing one of the happiest of their lives.

Israel’s attacks on Hezbollah and Houthi militias raise fears of wider conflict

Palestinian militant group Hamas said an Israeli strike killed its leader in Lebanon on Monday, while another Palestinian militant group said three of its leaders were killed in a strike on Beirut, the first attack within the city limits.

Dans Géopolitique de la colère. De la globalisation heureuse au grand courroux, dont une seconde édition actualisée et enrichie est parue le 29 août 2024 aux éditions Le Cavalier Bleu, Myriam Benraad, professeure en relations internationales à l’Université internationale Schiller à Paris, aborde la question des émotions dont découlent de nombreux conflits contemporains et qui contaminent toutes les interactions sociales et tous les rapports politiques. La réflexion qui suit, tirée de cet ouvrage, appréhende la colère comme un affect dominant dans le déclenchement et la prolongation d’une majorité de crises récentes au Moyen-Orient – celles à Gaza et en Syrie plus particulièrement. Comment, au sein de cet espace géopolitique singulier, des adversaires répondent-ils à des expressions réciproques de rage ?

Nabil Qaouq, a senior member of Hezbollah’s executive council was killed in another Israeli airstrike south of Beirut on Saturday

Israel said Sunday it killed another senior Hezbollah official in an airstrike a day earlier after dealing the Iran-backed group a seismic blow by assassinating its leader, Hassan Nasrallah.

IRAN’S FOREIGN MINISTRY: The ministry said in a statement that Nasrallah’s “path will continue and his goal will be realised in Jerusalem’s liberation”.

Following are reactions by regional politicians and others to the killing of Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah in an Israeli airstrike in Beirut on Friday:

Position: Unknown, former Head of the Special Operations Division (Division 4000) in IRGC’s Intelligence Organization (replaced by his former deputy Javad Ghafari).

Background: He is behind multiply failed attempts to assassinate and kidnap Israelis in the last months in places like Turkey, Cyprus, and UAE.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan seeks a role for Turkey in Gaza’s post-war reconstruction if not governance, and the Biden administration appears ready to accede to this request. Others also see Turkish involvement after the conflict as a fait accompli.

Ruling mullahs duly rolled into New York City to attend the U.N. General Assembly, led by Iran’s new “moderate” president, Masoud Pezeshkian.

Two years have passed since the murder of Jina (“Mahsa”) Amini, a young Kurdish-Iranian woman, at the hands of the Islamic Republic of Iran’s morality police. Amini was brutalized and killed for allegedly wearing her hijab, or head-covering, improperly—the sort of “crime” that sends a backward theocracy apoplectic with rage. Her death sparked the “Women, Life, Freedom” movement, the latest and perhaps most significant wave of protest among the millions of ordinary Iranians who have been clamoring for regime change for well over a decade, but who have so far been unable to dislodge the ruling mullahs.

• The Houthi movement (Ansarallah) in Yemen is diversifying its relationships beyond Iran and other Axis of Resistance partners, increasing its operational autonomy.
• Russia is expanding strategic ties to the Houthis as leverage against U.S.-led military support for Ukraine, while trying to avoid rupturing its established regional relationships.
• The Houthis have built ties to the al-Shabaab militant group in Somalia in order to compound the threat the Yemeni group poses to global shipping chokepoints.
• Houthi procurement networks have obtained key technology from China, even as Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping represent a threat to China’s trade with Europe.