Orientul Mijlociu

What Role Is Turkey Playing in Syria’s Civil War?

What role are outside powers playing in Syria’s new rebel offensive?

Turkey is the most important outside power supporting the rebel side. It geographically adjoins Syrian rebel territory in the northwest, and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s government supported the 2011 Arab Spring uprising against Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s regime. At times, he also backed a variety of Islamist groups during the Syrian civil war. The leading and most substantial rebel group, Ha’yat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), is the former Al-Nusra Front, a jihadist organization that fought the self-declared Islamic State (ISIS). It renamed itself and claimed that it renounced some of its more extreme positions, has become more respectful of minorities, and has taken on some institutional responsibilities in the form of local government. While there are indications that HTS acquired Turkish help in the form of arms, primarily drones, prior to this offensive, HTS is not Ankara’s primary client. It’s also worth noting that HTS has reportedly been manufacturing its own arms in recent years.

In historic campaign across Syria, IDF says it destroyed 80% of Assad regime’s military

After rebel takeover, Israeli Air Force and Navy strike missile depots, naval vessels, fighter jets and more to ensure they don’t fall into wrong hands

Following a major 48-hour bombing campaign in Syria, the Israel Defense Forces on Tuesday said it had destroyed most of the former Bashar al-Assad regime’s strategic military capabilities, in an effort to prevent advanced weaponry from falling into the hands of hostile elements.

Iran in ‘direct contact’ with groups in Syria’s new leadership

Iran has opened a direct line of communication with rebels in Syria’s new leadership since its ally Bashar al-Assad was ousted, in an attempt to “prevent a hostile trajectory” between the countries, a senior Iranian official told Reuters on Monday.

The lightning advance of a militia alliance spearheaded by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, a former al-Qaeda affiliate, led by Abu Mohammed al-Jawlani, marked one of the biggest turning points for the Middle East in generations.

Assad’s fall as president removed a bastion from which Iran and Russia exercised influence across the Arab world.

Hours after Assad’s fall, Iran said it expected relations with Damascus to continue based on the two countries’ “far-sighted and wise approach” and called for the establishment of an inclusive government representing all segments of Syrian society.

There is little doubt about Tehran’s concern about how the change of power in Damascus will affect Iran’s influence in Syria, the lynchpin of its regional clout, Reuters reported.

But there is no panic, three Iranian officials told Reuters, as Tehran seeks diplomatic avenues to establish contact with people whom one of the officials called “those within Syria’s new ruling groups whose views are closer to Iran’s”.

“The main concern for Iran is whether Assad’s successor will push Syria away from Tehran’s orbit,” a second Iranian official said.

“That is a scenario Iran is keen to avoid.”

A hostile post-Assad Syria would deprive Lebanese armed group Hezbollah of its only land supply route and deny Iran its main access to the Mediterranean and the “front line” with Israel.

One of the senior officials said Iran’s clerical rulers, facing the loss of an important ally in Damascus and the return of Donald Trump to the White House in January, were open to engaging with Syria’s new leaders.

“This engagement is key to stabilise ties and avoiding further regional tensions,” the official said.

Contact with new Syrian leadership

Tehran has established contacts with two groups inside the new leadership and the level of interaction will be assessed in the coming days after a meeting at Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, a top security body, the official told Reuters.

Two of the Iranian officials said Tehran was wary of Trump using Assad’s removal as leverage to intensify economic and political pressure on Iran, “either to force concessions or to destabilise the Islamic Republic”.

After pulling the United States out of Iran’s 2015 nuclear deal with six major powers in 2018, then-president Trump pursued a “maximum pressure” policy that led to extreme economic hardship and exacerbated public discontent in Iran.

Trump is staffing his planned administration with hawks on Iran.

In 2020, Trump, as president, ordered a drone strike that killed Qassem Soleimani, Iran’s most powerful military commander and mastermind of overseas attacks on U.S. interests and those of its allies.

“Iran is now only left with two options: fall back and draw a defensive line in Iraq or seek a deal with Trump,” said Ali Vaez of the International Crisis Group.

The fall of Assad exposed Tehran’s dwindling strategic leverage in the region, exacerbated by Israel’s military offensives against Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Palestinian militant group Hamas in Gaza, Reuters reported.

Iran spent billions of dollars propping up Assad during the civil war that erupted in Syria in 2011 and deployed its Revolutionary Guards to Syria to keep its ally in power and maintain Tehran’s “Axis of Resistance” to Israel and U.S. influence in the Middle East.

Assad’s fall removes a critical link in Iran’s regional resistance chain that served as a crucial transit route for Tehran to supply arms and fund its proxies and particularly Hezbollah.

Less than 48 hours after the fall of the “tyrant” and the popular celebration.. Israel targets Syrian territory with about 250 raids that destroyed the most important Syrian military sites

Is Israel’s targeting of Palmyra and killing of dozens of pro-Iranian militias and regime forces in response to the visit of the Minister of Defense of the Islamic Republic of Iran and his accompanying delegation a few days ago?

Israel has carried out about 250 air strikes on Syrian territory since the announcement of the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, on the morning of December 8, in less than 48 hours.

While the Syrians celebrate the end of the rule of the “tyrant,” Israel destroyed the most important military sites in Syria, including Syrian airports and their warehouses, aircraft squadrons, radars, military signal stations, and many weapons and ammunition depots in various locations in most Syrian provinces, in addition to scientific research centers, which resulted in their complete destruction, the disabling of air defense systems, and the taking of those sites out of service.

In Deir Ezzor Governorate, Israeli aircraft launched raids targeting weapons depots in a former military site near the city of Deir Ezzor, warehouses belonging to the Iranian Revolutionary Guard in the desert south of Albukamal, and weapons stores and warehouses in the salt mine and former centers of the former regime forces and the Iranians in the Deir Ezzor desert.

In Hama Governorate, the raids targeted the Scientific Research Center near the town of Al-Zawi in the Masyaf countryside.

In Homs Governorate, raids were launched on Al-Shayrat Airport and warehouses in Shinshar.

In Al-Hasakah Governorate, raids were launched on the Qamishli Airport area and the 54th Regiment, known as the Tartab Regiment.

In Latakia, Israel targeted an air defense facility near the port of Latakia on the Syrian coast, and the damage affected Syrian naval ships and warehouses of the former regime forces in Al-Kurniche, Al-Mushairfa, and Ras Shamra in the Latakia countryside.

In Damascus and the Damascus countryside, raids were launched on the headquarters of the Electronic Warfare Administration near Al-Bahdaliyah adjacent to Sayyida Zeinab, and weapons warehouses in the village of Ain Mneen in the Al-Tall area. Air strikes were also launched north of the city of Al-Qara, warehouses in Al-Sumaria, Aqraba Airport, Scientific Research in Barzeh, Al-Mazzeh Airport, and Beitima in Mount Hermon, the headquarters of the Fourth Division near Scientific Research, and the warehouses in Danha in Qalamoun in the eastern Lebanon mountain range, and the security square in Damascus.

In Daraa, raids were launched on positions of the 112th Brigade between the cities of Sheikh Maskin and Nawa in the western countryside.

It targeted several times the military warehouses in the vicinity of the town of Muhajjah, north of Daraa, and the 12th Brigade in the city of Izraa, which resulted in the martyrdom of two citizens who were in the targeted area. It also targeted Tal al-Hamad, Tal Jedya, Tal al-Hara, the 12th Brigade, and the 175th Regiment in Izraa.

Quneitra Governorate, Tell al-Shaar, and a site near the Golan.

This comes within the framework of destroying the remaining weapons in warehouses and military units that were controlled by the forces of the former regime.

With Assad in Moscow and armed rebels taking control of Latakia governorate, what will become of Russia’s military bases in Syria?

Following the rapid overthrow of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, Moscow is now facing the prospect of losing its naval and air bases in Syria. Russia’s two key bases are located in the Latakia governorate, which is already under the control of rebel groups. Syrian opposition forces have yet to take an official stance on their relationship with the Russian military contingent currently stationed in Syria. And Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has deemed it “too early” to talk about preserving the Russian bases at Khmeimim and Tartus. “This is a subject for discussion with those who will lead Syria,” he said on Monday. By all appearances, however, this “discussion” is already underway. Citing diplomats involved in talks between Russia, Iran, Turkey, and “leading Arab nations,” the Wall Street Journal reports that Moscow has “likely received commitments” that it could maintain its bases in Syria as “part of a transition.” But to what extent the Syrian rebels will honor those commitments remains unknown. Meduza breaks down what facilities Russia has in Syria and why their future is so uncertain.

Who is Abu Mohammed al-Golani, the leader of the insurgency that toppled Syria’s Assad?

Abu Mohammed al-Golani, the militant leader whose stunning insurgency toppled Syria’s President Bashar Assad, has spent years working to remake his public image, renouncing longtime ties to al-Qaida and depicting himself as a champion of pluralism and tolerance. As he entered Damascus behind his victorious fighters Sunday, he even dropped his nom de guerre and referred to himself with his real name, Ahmad al-Sharaa.

Syria’s Civil War: The Descent Into Horror

The civil uprising against the longtime rule of the Assads deteriorated into protracted civil war. Here’s a look at the elements that have deepened Syria’s tragedy.

Twelve years after protesters in Syria first demonstrated against the four-decade rule of the Assad family, hundreds of thousands of Syrians have been killed and nearly thirteen million people—more than half the country’s prewar population—have been displaced. Today, the country is fractured by actors with apparently irreconcilable interests: in areas beyond the regime’s control, extremists promoting a Sunni Muslim theocracy have eclipsed opposition forces fighting for a democratic and pluralistic Syria, while regional powers have backed various local forces to advance their geopolitical interests on Syria’s battlefields.

US patience with Turkey tested again over Syria, attacks on Kurdish partners

The Pentagon chief, the top US military general, and the top US diplomat all spoke to their Turkish counterparts this week

Shortly after the fall of the Assad regime in Syria, the US military conducted one of its largest attacks on ISIS in years. Part of the reason for the timing and ability to strike over 75 ISIS targets with B-52 bombers, F-15s and A-10s was because Russia’s military – invited to Syria to prop up the now-deposed Bashar al-Assad – was sent packing. Israel and Turkey, both with strategic interests in Syria, also took swift military action.

Syrie : Gagnants et perdants ou les deux

Il est désormais très probable que le pays se désagrège. Les acteurs extérieurs et intérieurs tenteront de s’emparer et/ou de contrôler autant de parties du cadavre qu’ils le pourront.

Il s’ensuivra des années de chaos et de conflits.