Orientul Mijlociu

Russian, Iranian presidents aim to prevent Turkey from a new offensive in northern Syria.

The leaders of Russia, Turkey and Iran are gathering in Tehran, with Ankara’s threat of a new incursion into northern Syria likely to top the agenda. While Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has both domestic and strategic reasons for the move, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi want to maintain the status quo in Syria, where both their countries have expended significant resources to prop up the Assad regime. Russia’s war on Ukraine will also feature prominently at the trilateral summit. Iran has offered to provide Moscow with drones and Putin and Erdogan are reportedly set to discuss restarting Ukrainian grain exports in the Black Sea.

Forget retrenchment: Strategic competition and boosting security cooperation, particularly to counter Iran, will keep Washington focused on the region.

‘The deal is absolutely on the table but I don’t think the Iranians want it,’ MI6 director tells security forum; CIA chief says Tehran’s advance toward atomic bomb is ‘troubling’

Britain’s spy chief voiced doubt Thursday on reviving a landmark 2015 nuclear accord with Iran, saying Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei remained opposed despite marathon diplomacy with the United States.

‘The Americans must accept some commitments. We do not want an agreement at any price,’ Hossein Amir-Abdollahian says

Iran is seeking economic guarantees from the US to revive a long-stalled 2015 nuclear deal so as “not to be stung twice” the same way, its foreign minister said.

Rafael Grossi says project ‘has grown enormously, far beyond what it was in 2015,’ as Tehran creates new difficulties and negotiations remains stalled

The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency warned Friday that Iran’s nuclear program “is advancing at a gallop and we have very little visibility.”

With missile stockpiles edging up across the Middle East, there is a clear need to develop a regional code for their acceptable use.

The Middle East is entering a new missile age. More regional states are either developing indigenous production capabilities or importing missiles than ever before. Currently, 11 states in the Middle East have ballistic or cruise missiles with ranges exceeding 250 km in their arsenals. But it is not just about the number of regional actors acquiring longer-range missiles. Missiles have also become a frequent feature of several regional conflicts, where they are used to meet new and evolving objectives beyond just deterrence or signalling military strength. This was on display during the Syrian civil war, and continues to feature prominently in the war in Yemen. Iran currently actively employs missiles to project power regionally. These examples reflect new patterns of use and a greater access to missiles perhaps unprecedented on a regional scale. As these dynamics take hold, traditional options and views about missile control start to appear both inadequate and out of sync with new regional realities.

Despite speculation around Russian President Vladimir Putin’s recent trip to Tehran, Russia–Iran relations remain firmly transactional.

President Vladimir Putin’s recent visit to Tehran, coupled with intelligence released by the US about Iran’s provision of armed drones to Russia, has renewed speculation that the relationship between the two might finally be moving towards a deeper, more strategic one. While these developments deserve careful monitoring, nothing much has changed in their ties yet. They continue to opt for ad hoc cooperation on specific issues and crises, which is balanced by mutual mistrust and competition, even in the context of the Ukraine war and its global implications.

The skeptics, this author included, were proven wrong. Turkey, and yes, the UN, got Russia and Ukraine to sign a critical deal in Istanbul that would help stave off a global food crisis as we put this newsletter to bed.

The Iranian Intelligence Ministry said its forces have disbanded a network of agents affiliated with Israel’s spy agency that had been deployed to Iran to carry out terrorist operations.

The Intelligence Ministry said in a statement on Saturday that members of a terrorist group affiliated with Mossad were identified and arrested by Iranian security forces before they could carry out any act of sabotage.