Orientul Mijlociu

Iran’s geography has turned it into a strategic hinge – one that anchors Russia’s southern depth and gives China an escape from US maritime containment.

In the corridors of US strategic decision-making, Iran is no longer treated as a discrete regional file. Dealing with Tehran has become inseparable from great-power competition itself. Coordination between Iran, Russia, and China has moved beyond situational alignment, coalescing into what western analysts increasingly describe as a form of “structural synergy” that undermines Washington’s ability to isolate its rivals.

The recent demonstrations in Iran that may have killed more than 5,000 civilians and security officers changed from largely peaceful to violent when a number of “agitators” got involved and sought to turn the gatherings focused on the poor economy into a drive to bring about regime change. It has been suggested that the sometimes-armed outsiders who stirred the pot were organized and trained by foreign intelligence services, most specifically the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) and the Israeli Mossad. In the event, the apparent plan to bring down the Iranian government failed when Tehran’s own intelligence and security services were able to intercept and decode the Starlink communications that the plotters were using after the phones and internet were turned off. Armed with information on who, what when and where the authorities were able to make mass arrests and shut down the planned insurgency.

Kurdistan Democratic Party leader Masoud Barzani warned against any move to target Kobani (Ayn al-Arab), the last point held by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in eastern Aleppo’s countryside (northern Syria).

Speaking at a press conference in Italy on Friday, 23 January, Barzani said Kobani is “a Kurdish city that must not be touched,” adding that he would do “everything necessary if the Kurds are attacked.”

Les justifications de la guerre avec l’Iran ne cessent de changer. Ce sont d’abord les armes nucléaires, puis les missiles conventionnels, puis les manifestants, et maintenant c’est de nouveau le cas des armes nucléaires. Il semble que la guerre avec l’Iran soit en soi l’objectif, et ils inventent simplement des excuses pour y parvenir.

EU foreign ministers agreed Thursday to designate Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a “terrorist” group, the bloc’s foreign policy chief, Kaja Kallas, said.

“Any regime that kills thousands of its own people is working toward its own demise,” she said.

Iran’s foreign minister warned Wednesday its forces would respond immediately and forcefully to any US military operation after President Donald Trump declared time was running out to avoid one, but did not rule out a new deal on Tehran’s nuclear program.

The Islamic republic’s top diplomat Abbas Araghchi warned its forces have their “fingers on the trigger” to “powerfully respond” to any US strikes, but also used language strikingly similar to Trump’s to describe a possible agreement to defuse the stand-off through a new nuclear deal.

Les forces américaines se sont massées en Jordanie en prévision d’une éventuelle guerre contre l’Iran, dans le but d’éloigner les représailles précoces des Israéliens et d’exploiter la puissance aérienne américaine, tout en risquant une erreur de calcul stratégique et un dépassement de leurs capacités.

Au cours de la semaine dernière, les États-Unis ont considérablement renforcé leur présence militaire au Moyen-Orient dans un contexte de tensions croissantes avec l’Iran, déployant des avions de combat F-15 et des avions ravitailleurs KC-135 à la base aérienne Muwaffaq Salti en Jordanie dans le cadre d’un repositionnement plus large de leur puissance aérienne en prévision d’une éventuelle attaque contre l’Iran.

“Israel is left worse off than when Hamas managed Gaza, given the sheer power of Turkey (which is increasing)…. The deployment of Turkish forces in Gaza and the sale of F-35s to Erdogan are not policy ideas but a method: regional management through personal deals and assurances rather than hard reality. Trump himself illustrated this approach when he dismissed the issue as if it were a neighborhood misunderstanding: Israel ‘will be fine’ and Turkey ‘won’t use them against you’. This is not policy; it is a dangerous assumption. In the Middle East, it does not work. — Christine Douglass-Williams, Frontpage Magazine, January 7, 2026.

Despite the announcement of a ceasefire between the Syrian government and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), the Kurdish militia said that fighting continues near Raqqa, and that clashes are leading to an “extremely dangerous development,” which leaves prisons and detention centers vulnerable.
While it is unclear how many individuals have escaped from al-Shaddadi prison, Damascus has vowed to find and arrest those individuals.
The fighting over the past few weeks saw Syrian military forces, augmented by tribal militias, capturing towns and villages long controlled by Kurdish forces.
In online pro-Islamic State chat forums, there is both outrage about SDF abuses against children and women during the recent clashes, while excitement about the future of the different camps in Northeast Syria is also growing, with many calling to support those who have been able to escape al-Shaddadi prison.