Orientul Mijlociu

Iraq: A crisis of elite, consensus-based politics turns deadly

Overview of the crisis

Iraq is facing one of its worst political crises in years. Normally formed via elite political consensus, more than 11 months after Iraq’s October 2021 parliamentary elections, the government has yet to be formed, the longest such impasse since the 2003 U.S.-led invasion reset the political order. Despite calls for dialogue, neither side seems willing to make mutually acceptable concessions. On Aug. 29 bloody street battles erupted in Baghdad and then in southern Iraq, leaving more than 30 dead and many more injured. Violence has stopped, for now, but the political crisis is far from over, even if superficial solutions may be found in the interim. Iraqis anxiously await the end of the Arba’een holiday on Sept. 17 to see what will happen next.

“Carpet weaving” east of the Euphrates: Iranian proxy groups expand their influence in Syria’s Hasakah Province

On Aug. 22, the northeastern Syrian city of al-Hasakah was inundated with leaflets condemning creeping Iranian influence in the area. The printed messages were plastered around several highly sensitive locations in the city center, including the local branch of the Ba’ath Party, the neighborhoods of al-Matar and al-Mahatah, as well as near the Great Mosque and market streets. Known colloquially as the “security square,” this area is under the control of the Syrian Arab Army (SAA), other regime security branches, including the Military Intelligence Directorate, as well as the National Defense Forces (NDF), a pro-government militia. Each of these groups has come under Iranian influence since the start of the Syrian war and today provides shelter for Iranian militias in the city and throughout the wider province.

From Tiger Forces to the 16th Brigade: Russia’s evolving Syrian proxies

Russia’s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine renewed international experts’ focus on Moscow’s earlier military intervention in Syria, launched in 2015, which often became framed as a “testing ground” for the weapons and tactics it now employs against Ukrainian cities. Certainly, direct military action of the type seen on the Ukrainian battlefield — bombing campaigns, assaults on urban areas, drone surveillance, and artillery support — had also played a key role in stunting and eventually rolling back rebel gains in Syria. But crucially, the Russian forces backing Bashar al-Assad’s embattled regime also understood the importance of state-building efforts: chiefly, rebuilding the broken Syrian security forces into more coherent, effective fighting units.

Mahmoud Abbas’s Palestinian Terrorists

One thing is for sure. Abbas will not tell his audience at the UN that members of his ruling Fatah faction are running wild in the West Bank, where they are carrying out terrorist attacks against Palestinian activists and Palestinian journalists as well as Israelis on an almost daily basis.

Syria, Russia Carry Out Coordinated Airstrikes on Rebel Training Camps in Idlib

Syrian and Russian forces attacked the training camps of Syrian armed rebel groups in the northwestern province of Idlib on Wednesday, the state-run Syrian Arab News Agency reported. The camps were targeted by Russian warplanes and Syrian missiles. An unspecified number of rebel fighters, including advisers and trainers from abroad, were killed or wounded in the coordinated Syrian-Russian strikes. SANA said the foreign trainers were teaching local rebels how to use drones in attacks on Syrian troops, and that the rebels’ positions, vehicles, and drones were destroyed during the attack.

Iran and Russia: The New Alliance

Significantly, Russia and Iran’s cooperation extends to the military and space fields, with Russia recently helping Iran to launch a new satellite into space.

Iran’s Khayyam satellite “will greatly enhance Tehran’s ability to spy on military targets across the Middle East… [and give] Tehran “unprecedented capabilities, including near-continuous monitoring of sensitive facilities in Israel and the Persian Gulf.” — The Washington Post, August 4, 2022.

2 Palestinian Gunmen, Israeli Army Officer Killed in West Bank Clash

Two Palestinians and an Israeli army officer were killed early Wednesday morning in an exchange of fire at an Israeli army checkpoint, the Israeli military and Palestinian medics reported. Israeli troops noticed two Palestinians holding weapons and approaching the Jalame checkpoint, near the West Bank city of Jenin, according to an Israeli army spokesman. The soldiers tried to arrest the Palestinians, who opened fire, killing the Israeli officer, Maj. Bar Pelah, the deputy commander of elite Nahal reconnaissance unit.

Why Russia’s Vladimir Putin is rooting for Turkey’s Erdogan

Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s “pro-Russian tilt” has grown louder in recent weeks, as Vladimir Putin clearly looks for Erdogan to stay in power.

Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan faces the biggest challenge to his nearly two decades of uninterrupted rule as galloping inflation, a wilting national currency and resentment toward Syrian migrants sap his popularity — and one world leader is watching closely: Russia’s Vladimir Putin.

Turkish intel chief pursues multiple goals in Baghdad

In landmark talks in Baghdad, Hakan Fidan sought to ease bilateral tensions over a deadly attack in July, assert Turkey’s resolve to continue military operations on Iraqi soil and sway the political impasse in Iraq.

Turkey’s intelligence chief Hakan Fidan became the country’s first official to hold high-level talks in Baghdad after bilateral tensions shot up in July. While Fidan’s visit was aimed at soothing the tensions, it was also a Turkish attempt to exert influence in the Iraqi political crisis.