Orientul Mijlociu

Part III: The Coordination Framework

Nearly one year after Iraq’s October 2021 parliamentary elections, the government has yet to be formed. The government formation power struggle pits the Sadrist Movement, led by populist Shi’a cleric Sayyid Muqtada al-Sadr, against the Coordination Framework (CF),1 a loose association of Shi’a parties, united mostly by their opposition to the Sadrist Movement. Central to the dispute are longstanding political rivalries and personal feuds in competition over government postings. Upon Sadr’s instructions, Sadrist MPs resigned from parliament in June after opponents’ efforts and a judicial decision thwarted his attempts to form a national majority government. Sadr’s supporters staged a nearly month-long sit-in that eventually ended when they stormed another government building in the Green Zone and armed groups aligned with the CF fired on protesters and clashed with Saraya al-Salam, the Sadrist Movement’s armed wing. The clashes left more than 30 dead and in the aftermath, Sadr announced his “resignation”2 from politics. Political downtime observed during the Arba’een religious pilgrimage ended on Sept. 17 and negotiations have since recommenced. Despite the ongoing national dialogue (which the Sadrists have declined to join thus far), deadlock continues and many fear future violence unless both camps can agree on mutually acceptable concessions.

Sept. 21, 2022, marked the eighth anniversary of the Houthis’ takeover of Sana’a, Yemen’s capital, under the pretext of fighting corruption and poverty. But what initially was presented as a struggle against injustice ended up being nothing more than a power grab masquerading as a rebellion. Since 2014, most of northern Yemen has become isolated after the Houthis alienated their opponents and executed their one-time ally, former President Ali Abdullah Saleh, shattering trust in the possibility of future alliances with their movement. Throughout the war, the country has undergone a radical political, religious, and cultural makeover, partially overturning the Yemeni Republic and opening a new chapter as a theological state presided over by a religious leader, Abdul Malek al-Houthi.

This move may be the first sign of “opening relations” between Turkey and the regime, according to al-Souria Net.

The military factions controlling northern Syria, whether in Idleb or rural Aleppo, are preparing to open crossings with Assad-controlled areas. This move may be the first sign of “opening relations” between Turkey, which oversees the north and the regime, according to the pro-regime newspaper Al-Watan.
The first of which was the opening of the National Army crossing, Abu al-Zandin, in the vicinity of the city of al-Bab east of Aleppo. It opened for only two hours, and two trucks entered before it was closed again.
Hours later, Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham’s (HTS) survey and engineering teams began equipping the Tarnaba crossing between the outskirts of the town of Sarmin and Saraqeb, which is under the control of Assad’s forces.

Russia is pushing Turkey in the direction of normalization with the Syrian government, according to Athr Press.

Several members of the Syrian Opposition Coalition (SOC) have leaked documents in which Turkey warns SOC not to waste time in any talks between the opposition and the Syrian government. The documents note that Turkish-Syrian talks were one of Russia’s conditions for Turkey to play the role of mediator between Russia and Ukraine. These developments coincide with talk of obstacles and stumbling blocks in Turkish-Syrian political talks, as well as several reports spreading that Ankara plans to close SOC’s offices and withdraw financial support from it.

Yemen’s six-month truce is up for renewal on 2 October. The UN and external powers should redouble their efforts to forge agreement on an expanded deal. If those look set to fall short, however, they should propose interim arrangements that avert a return to major combat.

The United States said Thursday that one of its citizens was killed in Iranian strikes on Iraqi Kurdistan as it separately announced fresh enforcement of sanctions on Tehran’s oil sales.

Iran’s clerical state on Thursday carried out cross-border strikes, with 13 reported dead, amid unrest at home sparked by the death in custody of an Iranian Kurdish woman by the notorious morality police.

Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi calls recent protests “sedition,” and police arrest a former president’s daughter.

At a cabinet meeting today, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi blamed “enemy” countries for provoking protests.

An Embattled Regime Faces Mass Protests—and an Ailing Supreme Leader

Early this month, the Iranian rumor mill cranked into overdrive amid reports that Iran’s 83-year-old supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who survived prostate cancer surgery in 2014, was again gravely ill. On September 16, the New York Times reported that emergency bowel surgery had left Khamenei bedridden and too frail to sit upright, citing four anonymous sources said to be “familiar with his health situation.” In the wilder corners of Persian-language social media, claims that Khamenei was on his deathbed gave way to speculation that he had already died. As has happened for more than a decade, such rumors quickly morphed into feverish conjecture about how Iran’s Assembly of Experts, the body of 88 Islamic jurists who choose the supreme leader, would select Khamenei’s successor and lively debate over the relative merits of the clerics jockeying for the role.

Iraqi parliament speaker Mohammed al-Halbusi resigned from his post but is expected to be re-elected.

The Iraqi parliament announced today that it will hold a session on Sept. 28 to vote on parliament speaker Mohammed al-Halbusi’s resignation.

Halbusi was elected last January by the triple alliance of Shiite Sadrists, the Sunni Taqaddum bloc and the Kurdistan Democratic Party.