Orientul Mijlociu

DÉCRYPTAGE – La bannière a été associée à l’État Islamique et interprétée comme le signe d’un lien avec le Hamas, ce que plusieurs experts jugent improbable.

Jeudi 12 octobre, cinq jours après l’offensive du Hamas en Israël, les images d’une bannière noire, traditionnellement associée à l’État Islamique – aussi appelé Daech -, ont été diffusées sur les réseaux sociaux et par plusieurs médias israéliens. Ces derniers affirment que le bout de tissu a été retrouvé par des soldats israéliens dans le kibboutz de Sufa, situé près de Gaza, «parmi les équipements laissés par les terroristes», selon i24 news.

As Israel prepares for a possible full-scale ground incursion into Gaza, there is much speculation over a possible Iranian response, including the potential deployment of its proxy forces to escalate the conflict further.

Kata’ib Sayyid al-Shuhada, Kata’ib Hezbollah, and Harakat Hezbollah al-Nujaba stand out as the groups most likely to become involved of the nearly 50 other Iraqi Shia militias that operate under Iran’s umbrella.

Des centaines de kilomètres de tunnels sous la bande de Gaza présenteront un défi pour une opération au sol imminente d’Israël, estiment plusieurs analystes américains. Dotés de tout le nécessaire pour mener des combats à long terme, ces réseaux fortifiés du Hamas tourneraient au «cauchemar» pour les forces israéliennes.

The chain of mass protests that swept through the countries of the Maghreb and the Middle East led not only to the undemocratic replacement of political elites and destabilized the socio-economic situation in the region, but actually became the beginning of the use of a new mechanism for the global redivision of the world. The use of so-called “soft power” as a set of predominantly non-violent measures to achieve political and economic goals with the involvement of large protest masses of the population was called the “Arab Spring”. These events in the Arab region demonstrated to the world community the effect of so-called “controlled chaos” technologies, which have not been fully studied by specialists and require a comprehensive analysis at the intersection of various sciences, from political science to neurophysiology and human psychology. The techniques used in hybrid wars are not based on socio-economic or political problems, but are based on new technologies for turning off the critical consciousness of people and involve the emotional and subconscious spheres of the personality of those being manipulated. It is important to note that mass protests of civilians against the authorities took place in countries with high rates of economic growth, with a poverty level of no more than 20% and a relatively low level of corruption. In the traditional understanding of the term “revolution,” in these countries there were no objective prerequisites for popular anti-government protest. However, the destabilization of the situation occurred almost instantly and led to the overthrow of the existing governments. In these cases, fundamentally new mechanisms were used to control the protest crowd [1]. An important point in the events of the “Arab Spring” was the widespread use of the Internet and various information and communication technologies, which played the role of a driver and system-forming principle for the protest masses.

Against the backdrop of another conflict in Palestine, the news that Saudi Arabia suspended negotiations with Israel became the reason for a broader interpretation of events affecting the interests of India, Iran, the EU, Russia and China. Although wars in the Middle East have always affected the whole world, especially the Eurasian region, in a certain way, this case is indeed connected with the plans of a number of states regarding both Israel and Saudi Arabia.

Let’s try to describe one of the possible scenarios for further escalation in the Middle East.

The Palestinian uprising begins in the West Bank and East Jerusalem. Fatah cannot contain the situation. Seeing how Israel is carrying out full-fledged genocide in the Gaza Strip, the Palestinians are launching a total rebellion. The IDF continues to destroy the civilian population of the Gaza Strip. Protests are growing around the world against Western pro-American liberal elites who unanimously stand for Israel. Hezbollah moves in and crowds of Arabs from Jordan break through the border cordons. The United States is launching preventive strikes on Iran, which is increasingly drawn into the conflict, and they are striking Israel. Syria enters the war, attacking the Golan Heights. There is a rapid mobilization of the entire Islamic world.

On October 19, 2023, Telegram channels linked to Iran-backed militias shared a statement issued by the “Islamic Resistance In Iraq,” an Iran-backed joint operations room consisting of Iraqi militias. The statement claimed responsibility for a missile attack on Ein Al-Assad base which houses U.S. forces in Iraq. The attack comes as part of the militias’ support for the October 7 attack by Gaza-based Hamas on Israel.[1]

The ongoing exchanges of fire between Hizbullah and Israel on the Lebanon-Israel border have increased the concern in Lebanon that the country may become embroiled in the war between Israel and Hamas.[1] Although Lebanon’s Caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati repeatedly stated in the recent days that he is working to keep Lebanon out of the war, he also explicitly admitted that his government is weak, saying, “the decision regarding war and peace is not in my hands or in the hands of the government.”[2]

Hizbullah-affiliated Lebanese academic Sadek Al-Naboulsi warned the United States against using firepower against Hizbullah or the “resistance axis.” Speaking on an October 18, 2023 show that aired on the Lebanese Al-Jadeed TV channel, he said that the UAVs used by Hizbullah to reach Israel’s Karish gas field can reach the USS Gerald R. Ford. Al-Naboulsi said that the United States should remember what happened in the 1983 bombing of the Marine Barracks in Beirut. He added that the Islamic resistance has revived the hope that the Arabs can defeat “that entity that purports to be invincible.” Al-Naboulsi, who is a professor of political science at the Lebanese University, Beirut, called upon all Arab countries, including those that have signed peace and normalization agreements with Israel, to join a “full-on all-out war with the Israeli enemy” and drive the Americans out of the region.