Orientul Mijlociu

After Prigozhin: The future of Wagner and Russian gray zone activities in MENA

On Aug. 23, an Embraer Legacy-600 business jet exploded over Russia’s Tver Oblast. The crash resulted in the deaths of Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin, co-founder Dmitry Utkin, and logistics head Valery Chekalov. While predictions of Prigozhin’s impending demise were widespread after he launched an abortive mutiny against Russia’s military leadership on June 23, his death — and the dramatic way in which it came about — sent renewed shockwaves across the world and plunged the Wagner private military company’s (PMC) global influence operations into a state of uncertainty.

Iran, Russia, and the Caspian environmental crisis: A need for collaboration

The Caspian Sea, the world’s largest inland body of water, is steadily shrinking. Water levels reached a critical low in 2022 and continue to fall by 6-7 centimeters per year, with some projections suggesting it could drop by as much as 9-18 meters by the end of the century. Although the five littoral states — Iran, Azerbaijan, Russia, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan — have a history of making efforts to maintain it, the unique environment of the Caspian basin has been in decline in recent years.

Syrie : L’agression internationale est repartie comme en 2011

De la faillite programmée des États arabes et des illusions du fédéralisme

Bien avant les dernières années de braises, nous n’avons cessé d’attirer l’attention sur les écrits de Zbigniew Brzeziński, Condoleezza Rice, Bernard Lewis et de plusieurs autres auteurs du même bord. Des écrits qui se résument à dire que les États de la région arabe sont sur le chemin de la faillite et de l’effondrement, soit sous le poids de la corruption et de la tyrannie, soit sous la pression des ingérences étrangères, et que le mieux serait de programmer des déflagrations sociales qui mèneraient à leur démembrement sur une base confessionnelle ou doctrinaire, de telle sorte que nul ne pourrait en hériter ou reconstruire sur leurs décombres des alternatives nationales, patriotes et démocratiques.

After an uprising and violent crackdown, Syria’s Deir ez-Zor is at a critical juncture

On Sept. 8, the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a key U.S. ally, announced the end of its “Operation Security Enhancement” in Deir ez-Zor in northeast Syria. While framed as an operation targeting ISIS sleeper cells and criminals, it aimed at quashing an armed uprising led by Arab tribesmen, particularly members of the Akidat tribe. Clashes first erupted following the SDF’s arrest of Ahmed al-Khubayl (“Abu Khawla”), the commander of the Deir ez-Zor Military Council, on Aug. 27 and were led mainly by his close allies and fellow tribesmen. The rebellion grew in the following days as other tribes joined in, including those that had poor relations with Abu Khawla and had pushed for his removal for years. While multiple factors may have contributed to fueling the uprising, the importance of the region’s longstanding grievances cannot be overstated.

Erdogan links Cyprus peace talks to Turkish Cypriot status recognition

The Turkish leader doubled down on Turkey’s support to Cyprus, while EU officials said that renewed talks about the island must be based on UN resolutions.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan redoubled his calls to the international community on Thursday to recognize the Turkish Cypriot state, saying that no new talks on the divided island could happen without recognizing the equal status of Turkish Cypriots.

Explainer: Why Iraq’s Kirkuk has reached brink of conflict

Tensions flare up in Kirkuk ahead of provincial elections in December amid Arab and Turkmen fears of renewed Kurdish control of the oil-rich city.

Plagued by the oil curse and long disputed between its ethnic communities, the northern Iraqi city of Kirkuk is once again teetering on the edge of civil war, with local elections just three months away.

Russia Sanctions: Opportunity For Turkey – OpEd

Recently, Turkish President Erdogan and Russian President Putin met in Sochi.

In the statement made by the Kremlin just before the Wagner rebellion in June, it was stated that Erdogan invited Putin to Türkiye and that preparations were being made. But the meeting was held in Russia, not in Türkiye as expected. The focus of the meeting was the Black Sea Grain Corridor Agreement.

ISIS has declared the death of its leader and the appointment of a new leader

Highlights

  • On August 3, 2023, ISIS’s Al-Furqan Media Foundation released an audiotape with a statement by Abu Hudhaifa al-Ansari, ISIS’s spokesman. In the tape, the organization’s spokesman announces the death of Abu al-Hussein al-Husseini al-Qurashi, the organization’s leader, and the appointment of Abu Hafs al-Hashemi al-Qurashi as his replacement.
  • ISIS’s spokesman blames the leader’s death on the Al-Qaeda-affiliated HTS, which is considered the dominant organization in the rebel enclave in Idlib. He denies the official version published by Turkey, according to which Al-Qurashi was killed by Turkey’s National Intelligence Organization (MIT). HTS issued a statement denying its involvement in killing ISIS’s leader. It should be noted that alongside the news of his death, rumors also circulated about the ouster of the leader even before he was killed.
  • Although the date of his death is not specified on the audiotape, the ITIC estimates that he was killed in April 2023. As ISIS has done in the past, this time too, the information about the leader’s death has not been officially published by ISIS. This is apparently because the organization waited for a new leader to be chosen by the Shura Council and for establishing support and recognition for his appointment by the operatives in the various provinces.
  • This is the fourth leader of ISIS killed since the establishment of the organization. The last three leaders were killed after a relatively short term of office and it seems that their term of office is getting shorter after the first leader, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, served for six and a half years while the last leader served only six months. It should be noted that the short terms of office of the organization’s leaders and the high turnover of the organization’s leaders are a severe blow to ISIS’s power, capabilities, and image. It should also be noted that the four leaders were killed on Syrian soil, to which the center of gravity of the organization’s leadership has moved. All four were killed in areas where the Syrian government had limited control (Idlib and Daraa).
  • If HTS is indeed responsible for the leader’s death, this is the second time that ISIS’s leader has been killed by a rival organization in Syria. This time it is an organization affiliated with Al-Qaeda operating in the Idlib region. It is possible that his death will lead to attempts by ISIS operatives to carry out a series of acts of revenge.

ISIS Redux: The Central Syria Insurgency in August 2023

ISIS carried out at least 17 confirmed attacks in August in the Homs, Hama, Raqqa, and Deir Ez Zor governorates. These attacks killed at least 40 pro-Assad regime soldiers and wounded 21 additional soldiers and two civilians. There were also seven high quality* attacks during August. August was the most violent month in central Syria since the end of ISIS’s spring campaign when the group heavily targeted civilian truffle hunters across eastern Homs and western Deir Ez Zor. However, as in the months following those attacks, August’s activity was focused on regime security forces rather than civilians.