Russia Sanctions: Opportunity For Turkey – OpEd

Recently, Turkish President Erdogan and Russian President Putin met in Sochi.

In the statement made by the Kremlin just before the Wagner rebellion in June, it was stated that Erdogan invited Putin to Türkiye and that preparations were being made. But the meeting was held in Russia, not in Türkiye as expected. The focus of the meeting was the Black Sea Grain Corridor Agreement.

ISIS has declared the death of its leader and the appointment of a new leader

Highlights

  • On August 3, 2023, ISIS’s Al-Furqan Media Foundation released an audiotape with a statement by Abu Hudhaifa al-Ansari, ISIS’s spokesman. In the tape, the organization’s spokesman announces the death of Abu al-Hussein al-Husseini al-Qurashi, the organization’s leader, and the appointment of Abu Hafs al-Hashemi al-Qurashi as his replacement.
  • ISIS’s spokesman blames the leader’s death on the Al-Qaeda-affiliated HTS, which is considered the dominant organization in the rebel enclave in Idlib. He denies the official version published by Turkey, according to which Al-Qurashi was killed by Turkey’s National Intelligence Organization (MIT). HTS issued a statement denying its involvement in killing ISIS’s leader. It should be noted that alongside the news of his death, rumors also circulated about the ouster of the leader even before he was killed.
  • Although the date of his death is not specified on the audiotape, the ITIC estimates that he was killed in April 2023. As ISIS has done in the past, this time too, the information about the leader’s death has not been officially published by ISIS. This is apparently because the organization waited for a new leader to be chosen by the Shura Council and for establishing support and recognition for his appointment by the operatives in the various provinces.
  • This is the fourth leader of ISIS killed since the establishment of the organization. The last three leaders were killed after a relatively short term of office and it seems that their term of office is getting shorter after the first leader, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, served for six and a half years while the last leader served only six months. It should be noted that the short terms of office of the organization’s leaders and the high turnover of the organization’s leaders are a severe blow to ISIS’s power, capabilities, and image. It should also be noted that the four leaders were killed on Syrian soil, to which the center of gravity of the organization’s leadership has moved. All four were killed in areas where the Syrian government had limited control (Idlib and Daraa).
  • If HTS is indeed responsible for the leader’s death, this is the second time that ISIS’s leader has been killed by a rival organization in Syria. This time it is an organization affiliated with Al-Qaeda operating in the Idlib region. It is possible that his death will lead to attempts by ISIS operatives to carry out a series of acts of revenge.

ISIS Redux: The Central Syria Insurgency in August 2023

ISIS carried out at least 17 confirmed attacks in August in the Homs, Hama, Raqqa, and Deir Ez Zor governorates. These attacks killed at least 40 pro-Assad regime soldiers and wounded 21 additional soldiers and two civilians. There were also seven high quality* attacks during August. August was the most violent month in central Syria since the end of ISIS’s spring campaign when the group heavily targeted civilian truffle hunters across eastern Homs and western Deir Ez Zor. However, as in the months following those attacks, August’s activity was focused on regime security forces rather than civilians.

Torrid Times in Eastern Syria

A U.S.-Iran understanding may have calmed tensions, but this was followed by Kurdish-Arab fighting that did precisely the opposite.

The summer was hot in northeastern Syria, as has been the transition to autumn. The season began with increased tensions between U.S. forces, which maintain a presence in the northeast, on the one hand, and Russia, Iran, and the Syrian regime on the other. According to U.S. officials and leaked documents from the Pentagon, since late 2022 Moscow, Tehran, and Damascus have been cooperating to increase pressure on U.S. forces and drive them out of the northeast. Russia has harassed U.S. and allied aircraft, and has also damaged U.S. drones. Iran-linked groups, in turn, have attacked American forces and carried out escalatory moves such as transporting anti-aircraft missiles into Deir al-Zor Governorate.

Goodbye to Political Zionism, Hello to Religious Zionism

The meteoric rise of the Religious Zionists, a sleight of hand that outdoes master Netanyahu, surprises everyone and delights few. How did this happen, who let it happen, and what can be done after the entrenchment of those who hold a prayer book in one hand and a rifle in the other hand? What happened to Theodore Herzl’s Political Zionism and its successor, David Ben Gurion’s Labor Zionism?

Syria’s Stalemate Has Only Benefitted Assad and His Backers

On the conflict’s 12th anniversary, everyday Syrians face a dire humanitarian situation, while Assad’s grip on power holds steady.

Twelve years into Syria’s devastating civil war, the conflict appears to have settled into a frozen state. Although roughly 30% of the country is controlled by opposition forces, heavy fighting has largely ceased and there is a growing regional trending toward normalizing relations with the regime of Bashar al-Assad. Over the last decade, the conflict erupted into one of the most complicated in the world, with a dizzying array of international and regional powers, opposition groups, proxies, local militias and extremist groups all playing a role. The Syrian population has been brutalized, with nearly a half a million killed, 12 million fleeing their homes to find safety elsewhere, and widespread poverty and hunger. Meanwhile, efforts to broker a political settlement have gone nowhere, leaving the Assad regime firmly in power.

Torrid Times in Eastern Syria

A U.S.-Iran understanding may have calmed tensions, but this was followed by Kurdish-Arab fighting that did precisely the opposite.

The summer was hot in northeastern Syria, as has been the transition to autumn. The season began with increased tensions between U.S. forces, which maintain a presence in the northeast, on the one hand, and Russia, Iran, and the Syrian regime on the other. According to U.S. officials and leaked documents from the Pentagon, since late 2022 Moscow, Tehran, and Damascus have been cooperating to increase pressure on U.S. forces and drive them out of the northeast. Russia has harassed U.S. and allied aircraft, and has also damaged U.S. drones. Iran-linked groups, in turn, have attacked American forces and carried out escalatory moves such as transporting anti-aircraft missiles into Deir al-Zor Governorate.

The Origins of the Iraqi Invasion of Kuwait Reconsidered

For over 30 years, policymakers and scholars have taken for granted that Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait simply to seize its oil. That narrative misleadingly suggests that the Iraqi invasion happened to coincide with, but was unrelated to, the dawn of the post-Cold War era. In fact, Saddam’s decision-making was inextricable from his interpretation of the end of the Cold War. In late 1989 and early 1990, he posited that Soviet retrenchment portended a five-year period of American unipolarity, after which Japan and Germany would restore a global balance of power. Until that new equilibrium emerged, Saddam genuinely feared that the United States and Israel would use their unchecked power to destabilize his regime in pursuit of their hegemony over the Middle East. In the summer of 1990, Kuwait’s oil overproduction persuaded the Iraqi leadership that the Kuwaiti royal family was complicit in the U.S.-led plot that they believed was already in full swing.

Triangulation Of Eurasia: The North-South Corridor Underreported But Pivotal For Common Future – Analysis

Introduction

In the fluid global order, initiatives to articulate cooperation to its best mutual outcome, as for exchange of resources and synergies are relevant more than ever. The mighty Asian triangular format of RIC (Russia – India – China) is relatively well known although underreported in scholarly and popular writings.