Orientul Mijlociu

Introduction

Two developments with dangerous and even explosive repercussions for the standing and interests of both the U.S. and Israel in the Middle East occurred in the last few days.

1. The U.S. has extended its presence at Qatar’s Al-Udeid airbase – CENTCOM’s main airbase in the region – for another 10 years[1]: In recent weeks, there has been criticism of Qatar for its sponsoring of terrorism, causing President Biden and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin to maintain ambiguity about the future of the U.S.-Qatar alliance. This follows years of frequent undeserved U.S. praise for Qatar.

Head of Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization Mohammad Eslami discussed in a January 13, 2024, show on Ofogh TV (Iran) his county’s plans for obtaining nuclear weapons. He said that Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has issued a fatwa forbidding the use of nuclear weapons, and therefore such weapons are not part of Iran’s “national strategy.” However, in response to a question whether Iran would reconsider this policy in the future, he said that Iranians don’t lack the capability to produce such weapons. Eslami said that Iran should not “underrate” its current achievements, and he added: “This deterrence has been achieved with the help of God.”

Iran’s Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) said they attacked the “espionage headquarters” of Israel in Iraq’s semi-autonomous Kurdistan region, state media reported late on Monday, while the elite force said they also struck in Syria against ISIS.

L’Iran aurait mené une attaque contre la base aérienne américaine de Harir et l’aéroport international d’Erbil en Irak à l’aide de missiles balistiques et de drones kamikaze lancés par le Corps des Gardiens de la révolution islamique (CGRI). Selon l’agence de presse iranienne Tasnim, le CGRI affirme que ces frappes ont conduit à la destruction complète des «quartiers généraux d’espionnage» des groupes terroristes anti-iraniens dans la région.

Iraqi Kurdish officials on Tuesday repeated calls for an anti-air defence system after Iran launched missiles at northern Iraq, killing five civilians on Monday night.

Tehran also hit areas of Syria outside the control of President Bashar Al Assad, regional sources said.

Les Houthis peuvent à première vue sembler largement dépassés par l’armada américano-britannique qui a frappé le Yémen, mais sur le plan militaire et économique, les États-Unis et l’Europe sont en réalité bien plus vulnérables que les Houthis. Pour le dire simplement, en termes économiques et militaires, les États-Unis, le Royaume-Uni, l’Europe et Israël ont beaucoup plus à perdre.

En 2008, lors d’une visite à Paris, Shimon Perez avait rallié la France à son projet qui devait relier la mer Rouge à la mer Morte. Les médias français avaient surtout retenu son initiative de «Vallée de la paix», ou vallée d’Arava, territoire situé aux confins de la Cisjordanie, de la Jordanie et d’Israël, dont il prétendait faire un exemple de développement partagé avec l’idée que «l’économie peut être le bulldozer de la paix»1. Une idée tellement enthousiasmante qu’elle a fini par laisser croire aux colonisateurs et à leurs associés qu’il suffit de quelques poignées de dollars, pour que les Palestiniens abandonnent leur terre aux sionistes et jettent les clés de leurs foyers transmises de génération en génération. C’est aussi bien le cas des administrations occidentales que des administrateurs «de pays frères qualifiés de pays modérés et/ou normalisateurs», pour lesquels les miettes distribuées avec parcimonie sont des investissements pour encore plus de profits.

Israeli Spy’s Warning: Tamir Pardo, a former director of Mossad, warned Israelis that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s “extremist” government threatens to destroy the strategic relationship with the United States. In a column on the website of Israel’s Keshet 12 TV channel, Pardo writes, “The great risk for the State of Israel is that, for the first time, Israel may run into a head-on collision with a supreme American national security interest. This irresponsible conduct of the Israeli government and its leader could lead to an existential threat to the Jewish state and also to the Jews of the Diaspora.” Pardo, who has been a strong critic of Netanyahu after he ran the Mossad from 2011 to 2016, says there are clear signs of this looming strategic divorce, and Israelis should take them to heart. “Woe to us if, one morning, the Pentagon and the State Department came out with a statement to Congress and the White House in which it was said that Israel ceased to be an asset to the United States and became a strategic burden!”

The United States and its allies face a shortage of viable options to stop escalating Houthi attacks on commercial shipping and other targets.

Houthi attacks have caused several large commercial shipping firms to avoid Red Sea routes, putting pressure on the United States and its allies to respond to the rebel movement more forcefully.

A new U.S.-led coalition maritime mission, Operation Prosperity Guardian, might help better counter Houthi attacks but still may not deter the group’s aggression.