Russian Expert Yevgeny Satanovsky: ‘The War In Syria Has Been Unambiguously Won Not Just By Local Islamists, But By Turkey And Its Ally – The Emirate Of Qatar’

On December 24, 2024, Russian expert Yevgeny Satanovsky, president of the Russian think tank Institute of the Middle East, wrote an analysis in the Russian journal “Russia In Global Politics” about the situation in Syria. Satanovsky stated that the war in Syria has been “unambiguously won not just by the local Islamists, but by Turkey and its ally – the Emirate of Qatar.” He then added: “As for the possibility of maintaining the Alawite autonomy in Latakia with Russia’s help… do not get your hopes up.”

Syrian Islamic Scholar Sheikh Mustafa Al-Joulani: The Russians, Shi’ites, And Alawites Will Burn In Hellfire; They Wanted To Turn Damascus Into A Shi’ite City; We Will Hunt These Rats Down And Trample Them Underfoot

In his Friday sermon, Syrian Islamic Scholar Sheikh Mustafa Al-Joulani, dressed in military fatigues, declared that polytheists, including Russians, Shi’ites, and Alawites, would burn in Hellfire, while the mujahideen would live in Paradise. “I bring you the glad tidings of Allah’s victory and conquest,” he said. Al-Joulani continued to bring the “glad tidings” of the victory of the “real men” who love death, just like the “sons of mut’a pleasure marriages” – meaning Shi’ites – love life. He also claimed that while the Shi’ites sought to turn Damascus into a Shi’ite city, Allah intended for it to remain Sunni. The sermon was uploaded to @Aljawhara_K3d on YouTube on December 30, 2024.

New Syrian Minister Of Justice Shadi Al-Waisi: We Will Not Impose Shari’a Law, But 90% Of Syrians Are Muslims And The New Parliament And Laws Will Reflect This

In a January 1, 2025 interview on Alaan TV (UAE), Syria’s new Minister of Justice, Shadi Al-Waisi, who was seen presiding over a 2015 execution of a woman accused of prostitution in a shari’a court, discussed the regime’s plans to implement shari’a law in Syria. He emphasized that Muslims make up roughly 90% of the Syrian population, and the government will reflect the will and aspirations of the people. As a result, the implementation of shari’a will play a “major role” in the coming days. Al-Waisi explained that the shari’a will be implemented in line with the conviction that 90% of Syrians hold “at the heart of their beliefs.” He concluded that the state will not impose anything on the people.

The Economics of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham

Introduction

Over the past four years, Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) has tried to transform itself from a faction of the Global Jihad movement into the de facto local military and governing power in north-west (NW) Syria. This shift requires the group to seek sources of funding other than al-Qaeda and its donors; consequently, HTS has undertaken a slow but steady takeover of the economy in NW Syria, from financial services and oil and gas to internet and telecommunications. This paper lays out how that process has taken place and provides a detailed look at the economics of HTS.

Who’s been funding the HTS rebels now in control of Syria?

The rebels who’ve taken control of most of Syria haven’t published a budget or donor list. Their fundraising is opaque, and methods have changed wildly in the past decade.

Speculation swirls online and in conversations over which countries — Turkey, Arab and Gulf states, Ukraine, even the CIA or Israel — may have helped them with cash, weapons or training.

Trends in Terrorism: What’s on the Horizon in 2025?

Sitting down to write my annual assessment on trends in terrorism in early 2025, I am struggling more than usual, fresh off the horrors of an Islamic State (ISIS)-inspired terrorist attack in New Orleans that killed fourteen people and injured dozens more. It is always a challenge to look beyond the immediate, to take a step back and weigh myriad factors and variables that impact which trends may accelerate and which may disappear.

Iran Update, January 11, 2025

The Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS)-led Syrian interim government announced that it thwarted an attempted Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) attack on a prominent Shia shrine outside Damascus. The Syrian Interior Ministry announced on January 11 the arrest of ISIS members who were planning a suicide bombing attack at the Sayyidah Zeinab shrine.[i] The ministry stated that the General Intelligence Directorate and General Security Administration coordinated to thwart the attack.[ii] ISIS has previously attacked Shia shrines in Syria, including in July 2023, when ISIS detonated a bomb near the Sayyidah Zeinab Shrine, killing six individuals and wounding 20 others.[iii] CTP-ISW cannot verify the interim government claim about the most recent attempted ISIS attack. If true, it would indicate that ISIS seeks to attack Shia targets to stoke sectarian tensions and delegitimize HTS as the primary ruling power in Syria. HTS announced recently that it has accepted responsibility for securing the Sayyidah Zeinab shrine.[iv]

Iran Updates

Maps
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) with support from the Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute launched a new interactive map of Iran and the Middle East. The map depicts events in Iran that affect the stability of the Iranian regime, namely anti-regime protests and reported poisoning incidents. It also shows developments in Syria that jeopardize regional stability and pose threats to US forces and interests, including Iranian and Iranian-backed militia positions. ISW created each of these data layer events in accordance with ISW’s research methodology. Learn more about the map here.