Orientul Mijlociu

Key Takeaways:

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and Basij operate a state-embedded trafficking enterprise that exploits Afghan and Pakistani refugees, Iranian children, and women for military proxies, sex trafficking, and forced labor, generating cost savings and direct revenue while Iran ranks as a U.S. Tier 3 country and has not ratified the Palermo Protocol.
These activities include coercive recruitment into Fatemiyoun and Zainabiyoun brigades for Syria and Iraq, border “taxes” on smuggling networks that push migrants into debt bondage, and facilitation of sex trafficking to regional destinations, all subsidized by control of borders and security checkpoints.
Existing U.S. and EU sanctions, focused mainly on nuclear, missile, and terrorism grounds, leave trafficking proceeds largely untargeted because they are cash-based and laundered through hawala and front companies, prompting calls to apply tools such as the Global Magnitsky Act and anti-money-laundering rules specifically to IRGC trafficking networks.

Key Takeaways:

Bahrain has arrested scores of Shiite clerics accused of conspiring with Iran, sparking 125 solidarity demonstrations since May 9, threats from Iranian-backed militants to attack infrastructure unless 41 prisoners are freed, and 251 total arrests since the war began, heightening sectarian tensions.
In Iran, ethnic minorities comprising about 43% of the population face rising violence, including assassinations of pro-government Sunni Baloch and Kurdish clerics, pitched battles by the Popular Fighter Front against the IRGC in Sistan and Balochistan, and Taliban efforts to revive Jundallah, while Kurdish groups grow more vulnerable amid the impending full US withdrawal from Iraq.
Continued heavy-handed repression in Bahrain risks further protests that test government control, while ethnic unrest could threaten Iran’s domestic stability and territorial integrity if the US-Iran conflict escalates, with President Trump’s decisions on potential renewed war potentially determining whether minorities become involved in broader hostilities.

Nearly 100,000 movements into Afghanistan from Iran and Pakistan were recorded over a two-week period, while more than 39,000 movements were recorded out of the country toward the two neighbors, according to new data from the International Organization for Migration. Almost three-quarters of the arrivals came from Iran.

Pour le reste du monde, l’oléoduc Est-Ouest constituait une police d’assurance. Avec quatre stations sur treize HS, le gisement de Ghawar touché & la mer Rouge sous contrôle, la garantie a expiré.

Lorsque le détroit d’Ormuz a été fermé fin février, l’Arabie saoudite disposait de ce dont presque aucun autre producteur du Golfe ne pouvait se prévaloir : une solution de contournement à grande échelle. L’oléoduc Est-Ouest, connu dans le secteur sous le nom de Petroline, acheminait du pétrole brut sur 1 200 kilomètres à travers le désert, depuis les champs pétroliers de la province de l’Est jusqu’à Yanbu, au bord de la mer Rouge. Sa capacité maximale est d’environ 7 millions de barils par jour. Pendant sept mois, c’est grâce à lui que le monde a pu continuer à s’approvisionner en pétrole saoudien. Cette bouée de sauvetage est désormais hors service.

Iraq is at a new crossroads. On October 8 and 12, Iranian drones targeted Kurdish Iranian opposition groups based in northern Iraq. These are just several of more than 1,000 attacks by Iran on Iraq over the last eight months.

When Israel and Lebanon reached a ceasefire in April, the Israel Defense Forces’ systematic destruction of villages in southern Lebanon was supposed to halt. Instead, it was just getting started.

Israeli forces have largely leveled 48 of the roughly 60 villages and towns in occupied southern Lebanon, a New York Times investigation published Monday revealed, fueling fears that Israel intends to permanently prevent displaced residents from returning.

Depuis trois ans, le débat sur Gaza s’est déplacé vers une bataille de vocabulaire : génocide ou pas génocide. Ce déplacement cache un piège. Si le droit des Palestiniens sur leur terre devait attendre le verdict des juges, il deviendrait une indemnité proportionnelle aux morts, au lieu d’être un droit qui existait avant le crime. Un architecte lit la terre comme une écriture qui retient ceux qui l’ont façonnée. Texte cosigné avec une intelligence artificielle, une cosignature assumée.

Le Wall Street Journal est revenu dans un rapport sur les répercussions de la guerre sur l’économie de l’Arabie saoudite, estimant qu’elle menace de la faire plier sous la «récession» et aggrave le déficit budgétaire du pays.

Amid ongoing military-political and economic pressure from the US and Israel, Iran is demonstrating full readiness for fierce resistance and a protracted multi-front war, while simultaneously keeping the door open for a diplomatic settlement on its own terms.