Orientul Mijlociu

Contexte géopolitique général et choc du 100e jour

Le conflit américano-israélien avec l’Iran et l’Axe de la Résistance entre dans son 100e jour dans un contexte d’évolution opérationnelle extrêmement dangereuse. Elle s’est manifestée par le bombardement par l’armée israélienne de la banlieue sud de Beyrouth (Dahiyeh), rompant les accords précédents pour tenter d’imposer une nouvelle équation sécuritaire qui conditionne la sécurité de la capitale libanaise à l’arrêt des frappes de la Résistance dans le nord. Cette intensification démesurée, menée en toute connaissance de cause et en coordination avec Washington, coïncide avec la phase finale des négociations américano-iraniennes, marquée par des divergences techniques complexes. Elle prouve que le Premier ministre ennemi Benjamin Netanyahu s’active fébrilement pour faire échouer tout accord nucléaire entre Téhéran et Washington en dynamitant la scène libanaise.

“The Ikhwan [Muslim Brothers] must understand that their work in America is a kind of grand Jihad in eliminating and destroying the Western civilization from within and ‘sabotaging’ its miserable house by their hands and the hands of the believers so that it is eliminated and God’s religion is made victorious over all other religions.” — From the Muslim Brotherhood’s 1991 “Explanatory Memorandum on the General Strategic Goal for the Group in North America.”

Syria’s Interior Ministry has announced a new string of foiled Hezbollah assassination plots against high-level figures, attacks on minority figures and civilian targets, and weapons transfers, alleging the group and Iran-backed actors are seeking to undermine local security across the country.

Far from weakening the IRGC, the war has entrenched its power, pushing Iran towards a military-run state with clerical cover

In its war against Iran, the US and Israel have heavily targeted the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), striking its command structure, intelligence networks, air and naval assets, as well as broader military infrastructure.

Three years before becoming Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu laid out a worldview in his 1993 book, A Durable Peace: Israel and Its Place Among the Nations, that would come to define both his leadership and the region around him. Rejecting the optimism of the post-Cold War peace process, he instead advanced a harder doctrine, what he called a “peace of deterrence,” rooted not in reconciliation, but in power: “the only kind of peace that can endure in the Middle East is a peace that can be defended.”

The pursuit of biblical mirages and tactical deals with conscience are leading Israel to total international isolation, economic strangulation, and a real threat to its existence.

The pursuit of biblical mirages and tactical deals with conscience are leading Israel to total international isolation, economic strangulation, and a real threat to its existence.

The Unintended Consequences of the U.S.-Israeli Assault

In early February, according to The New York Times and other outlets, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu convinced U.S. President Donald Trump that airstrikes could help catalyze an anti-regime rebellion within Iran. But after the Israeli and U.S. militaries launched a war on the Islamic Republic at the end of the month, eliminating Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and other key regime figures, the Islamic Republic did not collapse. Instead, internal pressure appears to have consolidated it around hard-line elements.

The fall of the Assad regime marked the start of a new and risky journey to rebuild and repair what 14 years of war destroyed, including securing housing for millions living in camps, and for displaced Syrians and refugees whose homes were destroyed.