Reports last month that Ramzan Kadyrov was organizing a military force based on the Batal-Haji wird of a Sufi order for use in Ukraine were disturbing enough given that the Chechen leader was doing so on under the terms of Putin’s mobilization order (windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2022/11/russian-officials-accuse-influential.html).
Last week, Azerbaijani President Ilham Alliyev told the ‘Along the Middle Corridor’ Conference that “we will do everything possible to defend our way our life as well as the secular direction of the development of Azerbaijan and of Azerbaijanis, including Azerbaijanis living in Iran. They are part of our nation” (salamnews.org/ru/news/read/480504).
Iran is increasingly worried over Azerbaijani and Turkish geopolitical gains in the region as calls for “Greater Azerbaijan” push a hot button in Tehran.
Tensions are rising between Iran and Azerbaijan over Baku’s plans for a land connection to its exclave of Nakhchivan via Armenian territory, threatening to undermine Turkish-Iranian ties as well.
Autoritățile ucrainene au îndemnat conducerea de la Tbilisi să deschidă un „al doilea front” împotriva Rusiei, a declarat premierul georgian, Irakli Garibașvili, în cadrul unei intervenții în Parlamentul țării. Potrivit precizărilor sale, opoziția georgiană a susținut solicitările Kievului.
Following Azerbaijan’s victory over Armenia in the Second Karabakh War in late 2020, Iran has doubled down on its long-standing diplomatic provocations, economic warfare, and threats of military aggression against Azerbaijan. The qualitative increase in its support for Armenia against Azerbaijan manifests in each of these areas.
Iran is trying to regain its influence in the South Caucasus. In October, it announced large-scale military exercises, dubbed “Mighty Iran”, near the border with Azerbaijan. The drills, a repeat of last year’s, should be seen as an expression of the growing discomfort within the Islamic Republic toward what it sees as the worsening geopolitical situation in the South Caucasus.
A new $100 million project run by members of both presidents’ families highlights the tight relations between Turkey and Azerbaijan.
Following Azerbaijan’s victory over Armenia in the 2020 war, one of the biggest beneficiaries has been Turkey.
Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Armenia in September 2022 caused some limited geopolitical commotion, as most readers of Baku Dialogues are keenly aware. Without downplaying its regional significance in the slightest, it was, however, her visit to Taiwan in August 2022 that made global headlines and triggered a new round of tensions in the Taiwan Strait. At the core of that controversy is the status of Taiwan. While the People’s Republic of China (PRC) condemned the visit as a violation of the “one China principle,” the U.S. government and Pelosi herself insisted that it was consistent with America’s “one China policy.”
As the EU talks of ‘freedom’ from Russian gas for central and eastern Europe and the Balkans, brought by increased imports from Azerbaijan, sceptics warn it comes at a cost: increased reliance on a country engaged in a conflict and with a recent history of bribery and corruption in Europe.
A fragile truce concluded on 14 September halted fighting between Azerbaijan and Armenia that left hundreds of soldiers dead. In this Q&A, Crisis Group explains what occurred and what needs to happen now to restart the peace process between the two foes.