Iran is trying to regain its influence in the South Caucasus. In October, it announced large-scale military exercises, dubbed “Mighty Iran”, near the border with Azerbaijan. The drills, a repeat of last year’s, should be seen as an expression of the growing discomfort within the Islamic Republic toward what it sees as the worsening geopolitical situation in the South Caucasus.
A new $100 million project run by members of both presidents’ families highlights the tight relations between Turkey and Azerbaijan.
Following Azerbaijan’s victory over Armenia in the 2020 war, one of the biggest beneficiaries has been Turkey.
Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Armenia in September 2022 caused some limited geopolitical commotion, as most readers of Baku Dialogues are keenly aware. Without downplaying its regional significance in the slightest, it was, however, her visit to Taiwan in August 2022 that made global headlines and triggered a new round of tensions in the Taiwan Strait. At the core of that controversy is the status of Taiwan. While the People’s Republic of China (PRC) condemned the visit as a violation of the “one China principle,” the U.S. government and Pelosi herself insisted that it was consistent with America’s “one China policy.”
As the EU talks of ‘freedom’ from Russian gas for central and eastern Europe and the Balkans, brought by increased imports from Azerbaijan, sceptics warn it comes at a cost: increased reliance on a country engaged in a conflict and with a recent history of bribery and corruption in Europe.
A fragile truce concluded on 14 September halted fighting between Azerbaijan and Armenia that left hundreds of soldiers dead. In this Q&A, Crisis Group explains what occurred and what needs to happen now to restart the peace process between the two foes.
In recent days renewed clashes have broken out between Armenia and Azerbaijan in the South Caucasus. Fighting between these two countries is nothing new. Since the early 1990s, what started as a “hot war” transformed into a long-lasting “frozen conflict” over Armenia’s occupation of Azerbaijani territory in the Karabakh region. In 2020, the situation boiled over and the second Karabakh war left Azerbaijan victorious, Armenia defeated, and Russia with a peacekeeping role in the region.
Russian political scientist and sociologist Greg Yudin believes that Armenia should stay away from a “falling building”, that falling building being Russia.
Yudin said in a thread on Twitter on Friday, September 16 that Azerbaijan’s recent attack on Armenia provides evidence of a catastrophic collapse of Russian foreign policy in a “hugely important region.”
AFGHANISTAN
The Taliban and Pakistani forces clashed on Wednesday in the eastern border province of Paktia as the Taliban accused Islamabad of erecting a military post on the border. Crisis Group expert Graeme Smith says tensions between the sides have been simmering for months and have occasionally escalated into armed clashes. Pakistan has grown frustrated with the sanctuary that Afghanistan’s new rulers have afforded the Pakistani Taliban (TTP), which is orchestrating a deadly cross-border campaign in Pakistan. Islamabad and the Taliban also disagree over the Durand Line, which the Taliban rejects as the official border and Pakistan continues to fence. The skirmishes take place as Taliban also battles the Islamic State’s local branch and armed resistance forces in the north.
Dozens of Armenian soldiers have reportedly been killed in renewed border clashes between Armenia and Azerbaijan.
Dozens of Armenian soldiers have reportedly been killed in renewed border clashes between Armenia and Azerbaijan, in the worst fighting seen since the hostile enemies were embroiled in a 2020 war over the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region.
Azerbaijan carried out a wide-scale attack against targets in Armenia, an unprecedented escalation of the long-running conflict on to Armenian territory.
Armenia’s defense ministry reported attacks, starting around midnight September 13, targeting cities all along the southern part of Armenia’s border with Azerbaijan, including Vardenis, Sotk, Artanish, Ishkhanasar, Goris and Kapan.