While a direct military conflict remains unlikely, Iran-Azerbaijan tensions are poised to grow as Tehran pushes to fill the gap left by Russia in the conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia — altering the balance of power in the region.
On Dec. 31, Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian had a phone conversation with his Azerbaijani counterpart, Jeyhun Bayramov, in which he emphasized that improving relations with neighboring countries, including Azerbaijan, is a priority for Iran’s foreign policy. This statement indicates a desire on the part of Tehran to de-escalate the bilateral situation, following a bout of saber-rattling with Azerbaijan this autumn. Nevertheless, tensions between the two countries remain high.
On 12 December, under the pretext of environmentalism, dozens of state-backed “eco-activists” from Azerbaijan blocked the only land corridor connecting Armenia to Nagorno-Karabakh.
The blockade created a humanitarian crisis for the 120,000 Armenians living in Nagorno-Karabakh, cutting them off from the outside world. This is not the first time Baku has taken such a provocative action. Azerbaijan has long been pushing for the creation of the “Zangezur corridor” to connect itself to close ally Turkiye through southern Armenia, thereby cutting off the strategic Armenia-Iran border.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine sent shock waves round the world. As our look ahead to 2023 shows, several other crises loom as well.
Will he or won’t he? This time last year, that was the question. Russian President Vladimir Putin had massed almost two hundred thousand troops on Ukraine’s borders. U.S. intelligence warned that Russia was preparing for all-out war. All the signs pointed to an assault, bar one: it seemed unthinkable.
L’Azerbaïdjan et la Turquie s’efforcent d’établir le « corridor de Zangezur », en contradiction directe avec les intérêts de l’Iran et de l’Arménie, car il implique le blocage du corridor de Lachin, qui constitue une ligne de vie pour les Arméniens du Haut-Karabakh.
Reports last month that Ramzan Kadyrov was organizing a military force based on the Batal-Haji wird of a Sufi order for use in Ukraine were disturbing enough given that the Chechen leader was doing so on under the terms of Putin’s mobilization order (windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2022/11/russian-officials-accuse-influential.html).
Last week, Azerbaijani President Ilham Alliyev told the ‘Along the Middle Corridor’ Conference that “we will do everything possible to defend our way our life as well as the secular direction of the development of Azerbaijan and of Azerbaijanis, including Azerbaijanis living in Iran. They are part of our nation” (salamnews.org/ru/news/read/480504).
Iran is increasingly worried over Azerbaijani and Turkish geopolitical gains in the region as calls for “Greater Azerbaijan” push a hot button in Tehran.
Tensions are rising between Iran and Azerbaijan over Baku’s plans for a land connection to its exclave of Nakhchivan via Armenian territory, threatening to undermine Turkish-Iranian ties as well.
Autoritățile ucrainene au îndemnat conducerea de la Tbilisi să deschidă un „al doilea front” împotriva Rusiei, a declarat premierul georgian, Irakli Garibașvili, în cadrul unei intervenții în Parlamentul țării. Potrivit precizărilor sale, opoziția georgiană a susținut solicitările Kievului.
Following Azerbaijan’s victory over Armenia in the Second Karabakh War in late 2020, Iran has doubled down on its long-standing diplomatic provocations, economic warfare, and threats of military aggression against Azerbaijan. The qualitative increase in its support for Armenia against Azerbaijan manifests in each of these areas.