Africa

Taking Stock of the Surge in Militant Islamist Violence in Africa

The spike in militant Islamist group violence in Africa has been marked by a 68-percent increase in fatalities involving civilians, highlighting the need for more population-centric stabilization strategies.

Militant Islamist violence in Africa set new records for violent events and fatalities this past year. This continues a relentless decade-long upward trend. To give a sense of the accelerating pace of this threat, both violent events and fatalities have almost doubled since 2019.

The Persistence of Cults of Personality in African Governance

African leaders who hold power indefinitely often employ cults of personality to consolidate power, demand personal fealty, and systematically undermine independent governance institutions.

When long-serving, neo-patrimonial leaders in Burkina Faso, Gambia, Zimbabwe, and Sudan were forced to step down because of popular and youthful protests in recent years, the era of “presidents for life” in Africa seemed to be ending. Yet, for every such leader who has been forced from power, new ones emerge on the scene. In many cases, African leaders who retain power indefinitely are characterized by pervasive cults of personality, demonstrating the enduring potency of this instrument of power.

Reclaiming Al Shabaab’s Revenue

Cutting off al Shabaab’s estimated $100 million in extortion-generated annual revenue will require restoring the integrity of Somalia’s compromised financial, judicial, and intelligence agencies.

Despite setbacks, al Shabaab remains a resilient and destabilizing threat in Somalia. In the past year, it was linked to 2,553 violent events and 6,225 fatalities. This represents nearly a doubling in the number of incidents since 2019. Fatalities involving al Shabaab have increased by 120 percent during this period.

Tunisia’s xenophobic plans backfire on its fragile economy

President Kaïs Saied’s attempt to scapegoat black migrants is costing the country socially, economically and diplomatically.

In a 21 February national security council address, Tunisian President Kaïs Saied accused sub-Saharan African immigrants of fostering ‘violence, crime and unacceptable practices.’

Russia targets Ivory Coast to expand military influence in Africa

In a propaganda cartoon on West African social media, the Russian mercenary is muscular and heroic. Descending fearlessly from a helicopter, he races to the rescue of besieged soldiers from Mali and Burkina Faso, firing his machine gun at demonic French zombies and an evil snake in French national colours.

The Terrorism Landscape Continues to Evolve

  • Counterterrorism has become a backburner issue amid great power conflict, to the chagrin of many intelligence and homeland security professionals tasked with maintaining vigilance in the face of an ever-evolving threat.
  • The challenge most familiar to the United States and its allies, Salafi jihadist terrorism, now manifests in different forms and different locales, notably concentrated in the Sahel now.
  • Without strong and inspirational leadership, the “Islamic State” brand has become watered down, with affiliate groups and IS branches pursuing more narrow agendas embedded in more local and regional conflicts.
  • Beyond Salafi-jihadists, the terrorism landscape is far more diverse than in recent years, with threats posed by groups motivated by different ideologies, including far-right extremists and those related to Iran, for example.

Islamic State Khorasan Remains a Stubborn Threat in Afghanistan

  • General Michael Kurilla, head of United States Central Command (CENTCOM), has suggested that at its current trajectory, Islamic State Khorasan (ISK) would be able to conduct external operations within approximately six months.
  • Since the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan in August 2021, counterterrorism analysts have warned about the growing threat of ISK, especially in light of the U.S. troop withdrawal and limited human intelligence assets in areas where ISK and other terrorist groups operate.
  • ISK has been diversifying its target set in Afghanistan over the past year, attacking Pakistani, Chinese, and Russian targets inside the country.
  • Globally, Islamic State is dedicating more resources to its affiliates in Afghanistan and Africa, especially as its core group comes under intense assault in Syria, while some franchises that were formerly prominent continue to ebb, such as those in Southeast Asia, Libya, and Egypt.

La milice Codéco, un danger en RDC

La milice communautaire Codéco a exécuté 17 otages dimanche, un an pourtant après que la RDC a tenté de négocier un cessez-le-feu avec d’anciens chefs de guerre.

C’est la consternation en Ituri après l’exécution par la Codéco de 17 otages, dimanche [26.03.23]. Les personnes tuées ont d’abord été prises en otage avant d’être exécutées le lendemain par la milice Codéco. Elles quittaient le chef-de-lieu dela province de l’Ituri, la ville de Bunia, pour se rendre dans la cité minière de Mongbwalu lorsque leur convoi est tombé dans une embuscade.